AR Congressional Races 2014

[Miles]

AFP attacking Pryor for the next 3 weeks.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully we get a poll next month. By then I'd expect the numbers to move a bit, with real movement by summer.

[RogueBeaver]

So Pryor's still on the Generic D stuff, this time Medicare. I'd have thought a "private option" wedge would've been his choice, but apparently not.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor will vote against a minimum wage increase.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Most worthless senator.

If it were 2009 right now, this would be a different story.  What I don't get is that two months ago, Pryor backed a minimum wage increase in Arkansas.

[RogueBeaver]

That's Moderate Heroism for you. Perhaps throwing a bone to Walmart?

[windjammer]

Pryor is a useless senator, but a useless senator is always better than a far-right republican.

[IceSpear]

Why is it that moderate heroes always oppose things that are supported by a vast majority of the public? Public option, minimum wage increase, etc.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor is the only Dem senator running whose COH trended downwards. Not that $ really matters here, as Lincoln can attest.

[windjammer]

Why is it that moderate heroes always oppose things that are supported by a vast majority of the public? Public option, minimum wage increase, etc.

He supports minimum wage increase (see Arkansas ballot)

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor: I would vote for Ocare again.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Found this via Pryor's Facebook page: AR Ag Secretary Butch Calhoun explains why the farm bill Cotton voted against is so important to Arkansas

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton opposed the military pension linkage.

[RogueBeaver]

Hilarious: Pryor's Medicare podium advertised Cotton's campaign website.

[RogueBeaver]

Meh, even Pryor isn't talking about this.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton will deliver the weekly Pub radio address tomorrow.

[Miles]

Just to put any lingering retirement thoughts to rest, Pryor filed today:

[publicunofficial]

Filing deadline was today. 

Senate:
Mark Pryor (D) - Incumbent
Tom Cotton (R) - US Representative
Mark H Swaney (G) - Liberal activist
Nathan LaFrance (L) - Businessman
Rod Bryan () - Some guy


AR-01:
Rick Crawford (R) - Incumbent
Jackie McPherson (D) - Mayor of Heber Springs

AR-02
French Hill (R) - Banker
Ann Clemmer (R) - State Representative
Conrad "Colonel" Reynolds (R) - Army veteran
Pat Hays (D) - Former Mayor of North Little Rock
Dianne Curry (D) - Little Rock School District President

AR-03
Steve Womack (R) - Incumbent
Thomas Brewer (R) - Some guy

AR-04
Tommy Moll (R) - Businessman
Bruce Westerman (R) - State Representative
Janis Percefull (D) - Some Chick
James Lee Witt (D) - Former FEMA Director

[JerryArkansas]

Filing deadline was today. 

Senate:
Mark Pryor (D) - Incumbent
Tom Cotton (R) - US Representative
Mark H Swaney (G) - Liberal activist
Nathan LaFrance (L) - Businessman
Rod Bryan () - Some guy


AR-01:
Rick Crawford (R) - Incumbent
Jackie McPherson (D) - Mayor of Heber Springs

AR-02
French Hill (R) - Banker
Ann Clemmer (R) - State Representative
Conrad "Colonel" Reynolds (R) - Army veteran
Pat Hays (D) - Former Mayor of North Little Rock
Dianne Curry (D) - Little Rock School District President[/color]

AR-03
Steve Womack (R) - Incumbent
Thomas Brewer (R) - Some guy[/color]

AR-04
Tommy Moll (R) - Businessman
Bruce Westerman (R) - State Representative[/b]
Janis Percefull (D) - Some Chick
James Lee Witt (D) - Former FEMA Director

Bolded people will get the nomination.  I would call the First Likely R, Second pure Tossup, Third Safe R,and Forth Tossup/Tilts D if Westerman makes a gaffe, and pure tossup if not.

[Miles]

Forth Tossup/Tilts D if Westerman makes a gaffe, and pure tossup if not.

Do you think Moll could beat Westerman for the nomination? Moll's fundraising has been much better.

[JerryArkansas]

Forth Tossup/Tilts D if Westerman makes a gaffe, and pure tossup if not.

Do you think Moll could beat Westerman for the nomination? Moll's fundraising has been much better.

His name rec, Westerman is better, and Moll is more of a Libertarian to me by reading his plans.  That won't go over to well in the southern part of the district.

[publicunofficial]

I'd say


AR-01: Safe R, maybe Likely if McPherson impresses me
AR-02: Lean R
AR-03: Safe R
AR-04: Likely R


I'd also guess Hill beats Clemmer for the nomination in AR-02. I think Westerman wins in AR-04, but I could see Moll winning as well.

[JerryArkansas]

I'd say


AR-01: Safe R, maybe Likely if McPherson impresses me
AR-02: Lean R
AR-03: Safe R
AR-04: Likely R


I'd also guess Hill beats Clemmer for the nomination in AR-02. I think Westerman wins in AR-04, but I could see Moll winning as well.

On the surface they both, the 2nd and 4th look that way, but remember 2 things.  One, Mike Ross is running for Governor, which would bring up turnout in both the of the districts, bringing them both down a slot.  Two, the likelihood of the Republican nominee to say something really stupid and both of the Rep's nominees will have to go through hard primary fights, weakening both of them.

I think that Hill and Reynolds will draw from the same base and will split the vote allowing Clemmer to slip past them.  I do agree on the 4th primary though.

[publicunofficial]

I'd say


AR-01: Safe R, maybe Likely if McPherson impresses me
AR-02: Lean R
AR-03: Safe R
AR-04: Likely R


I'd also guess Hill beats Clemmer for the nomination in AR-02. I think Westerman wins in AR-04, but I could see Moll winning as well.

On the surface they both, the 2nd and 4th look that way, but remember 2 things.  One, Mike Ross is running for Governor, which would bring up turnout in both the of the districts, bringing them both down a slot.  Two, the likelihood of the Republican nominee to say something really stupid and both of the Rep's nominees will have to go through hard primary fights, weakening both of them.

I think that Hill and Reynolds will draw from the same base and will split the vote allowing Clemmer to slip past them.  I do agree on the 4th primary though.

I figured Ross's strength in the 4th would be cancelled out by Cotton also driving up turnout. Pryor is also from the area.

And I don't know enough about any of the R candidates to guess they'll say something stupid. It seems like "R Candidate is likely to make a gaffe" has been written about nearly every congressional race at some point or another, and it unfortunately happens a lot less than predicted.

[JerryArkansas]

I'd say


AR-01: Safe R, maybe Likely if McPherson impresses me
AR-02: Lean R
AR-03: Safe R
AR-04: Likely R


I'd also guess Hill beats Clemmer for the nomination in AR-02. I think Westerman wins in AR-04, but I could see Moll winning as well.

On the surface they both, the 2nd and 4th look that way, but remember 2 things.  One, Mike Ross is running for Governor, which would bring up turnout in both the of the districts, bringing them both down a slot.  Two, the likelihood of the Republican nominee to say something really stupid and both of the Rep's nominees will have to go through hard primary fights, weakening both of them.

I think that Hill and Reynolds will draw from the same base and will split the vote allowing Clemmer to slip past them.  I do agree on the 4th primary though.

I figured Ross's strength in the 4th would be cancelled out by Cotton also driving up turnout. Pryor is also from the area.

And I don't know enough about any of the R candidates to guess they'll say something stupid. It seems like "R Candidate is likely to make a gaffe" has been written about nearly every congressional race at some point or another, and it unfortunately happens a lot less than predicted.

Remember the art of split ticketing which still happens here in Arkansas.  Also knowing the likely nominee's by hearing them speak, they are likely to say something stupid.