Election 2012: Obama 61.1% Romney 37.2% Map with no uniform swing?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Election 2012: Obama 61.1% Romney 37.2% Map with no uniform swing?
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Author Topic: Election 2012: Obama 61.1% Romney 37.2% Map with no uniform swing?  (Read 737 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: April 18, 2013, 10:42:01 PM »
« edited: April 18, 2013, 10:52:57 PM by cope1989 »

In this scenario, Obama wins in an historic landslide, managing to secure 61.1% of the vote against Mitt Romney who manages a paltry 37.2% - each candidate doing 10 points better and worse than IRL. How does the electoral map look without a uniform 10% swing from the actual electoral map? In which states does he improve greatly from his actual performance and which does he hit a ceiling?

So for example:

New Hampshire: Obama 51.98/Romney 46.4------>Obama 61.98/Romney 36.4
Mississippi: Romney 55.29/ Obama 43.79----->Obama 53.79/Romney 45.29

Without Uniform swing:

New Hampshire: Obama 51.98/Romney 46.4----->Obama 66%/Romney 32%
Mississippi: Romney 55.29/Obama 43.79-----> Romney 51%/Obama 48%

My feeling is that New Hampshire is more elastic than Mississippi, so Obama improves greatly in some states while stalling out in inelastic ones.

Discuss with maps!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2013, 11:31:36 AM »

It would depend on the reason for Romney's collapse.  Does he collapse with fis-cons or with so-cons?  The most plausible scenario for an Obama landslide to me would be that Romney makes a full embrace of the Akin comments and the bottom falls out for him in the fis-con suburbs.  My map of this would be:



It would be more like the Johnson landslide than FDR or Nixon.  Most of the national swing is driven by very high Obama margins in CA-IL-NY.  VA would fall behind the national margin in a landslide and NH would zoom above it.  I just don't see the interior South voting for Obama under any circumstances. 
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2013, 12:23:32 PM »

I'm lazy, so I did a uniform 10% swing in each state.

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