AR-On Message Inc. (R): Cotton (R) up 2 in GOP internal

[Tender Branson]

An internal poll conducted in Arkansas for the National Republican Senatorial Committee puts GOP Rep. Tom Cotton head of incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by 2 percentage points.

The freshman congressman led the two-term senator 44 percent to 42 percent in a survey taken two weeks ago, ahead of his official campaign launch.

On Message Inc. conducted the statewide survey of 600 likely voters from July 29 to 30. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The survey’s numbers are consistent with most public polling. In a poll released Aug. 6, Republican firm Harper Polling had Cotton ahead 43 percent to 41 percent. A Polling Company Inc. survey published by the conservative Free Beacon on Saturday put Pryor ahead by 45 percent to 43 percent. A Democratic poll conducted for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees was an outlier, showing Pryor leading Cotton by 8 percentage points.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/gop-poll-tom-cotton-has-edge-over-mark-pryor-95427.html

[Tender Branson]

This poll is 4% worse for Pryor than the Polling Company poll from yesterday, which had Hillary Clinton leading Chris Christie and Rand Paul in Arkansas.

Considering it's an internal for the Republicans, that poll from yesterday could be right where the race is right now.

Which means that AR is a swing state in 2016 with Hillary on top of the ticket, compared with a 25% loss for Obama ...

[RogueBeaver]

No one knows for sure till Talk Business takes a look, but seems like everyone agrees they're tied in the low-mid 40s. 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Averaging the week's polls gives us 43-41 Pryor/Cotton.