Indiana margins and electoral results

[pbrower2a]

 

Indiana usually says something; it is about 10% more R than the rest of America in almost every Presidential election. Barack Obama campaigned heavily in Indiana and sank vast resources into the state to win it in 2008 and did not do so in 2012. He lost it by 10% in 2012 -- which should be a huge disappointment. Right?

Year     margin    

2012       10R
2008        1D
2004       21R
2000       16R
1996         6R*
1992         6R*
1988       20R
1984       24R
1980       18R*
1976         8R
1972       33R
1968       12R*
1964       12D
1960       10R
1956       20R
1952       17R
1948         1R
1944         7R
1940         1R

*Independent or third-party nominee may have had an effect. Bold is for the Democratic nominee winning the state. Bold indicates that the Democratic nominee won the state. Dark shades indicate electoral blowouts.

Wrong. Barack Obama campaigned extensively in Indiana in 2008 and won it -- and was effective enough in winning a raft of states that neither Gore nor Kerry won. He stayed out of Indiana in 2012 and lost it because he needed a laser focus on a small number of states that could decide the election. If he was going to win Indiana he was going to win Ohio anyway, but Ohio was easier for him to win against an opponent who could overpower him with campaign funds.  

Indiana has gone for the Republican nominee for President in 18 of the last 20 chances. This goes back to two elections involving FDR. Democratic nominees have won the popular vote 9 times and the Presidency 8 times -- and Republican nominees have won the popular vote 11 times and the Presidency 12 times.

The Republicans seem unable to win the Presidency if the Democrat loses the state by less than 11%. If Indiana votes by more than 11% for the Republican, then the Republican wins at the least the Electoral College (which is everything).

The Democrats have only one electoral blowout win since 1936 (1964 -- the FDR wins of 1940 and 1944 are closer to the popular margin of Barack Obama in 2008 than to the popular margin of Eisenhower in the 1950s) -- and the Democratic nominee won Indiana by a large margin.

If I have 2000 in purple that is because Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote.  I figure that had Gore had the sort of campaign that would have lost Indiana by 12% or so he would have won Ohio, and whatever went on in Florida would have been an empty sideshow.  Poor performances by Gore and Kerry in Indiana may have indicated the inability of either to have any appeal south of the Potomac and Ohio.

Indiana is typically one of the first states to be called in Presidential elections, and if it is slow to be called (1948, 2008) or is to be called early for the Democratic nominee (1964), then the Republicans are going to have a bad Election Night.  If it goes by a whopping margin for the Republican (15% or more), then Democrats are going to have a bad Election Night. 9-12%? Could be interesting.

[sg0508]

The youth vote and depressed GOP turnout was the difference in 2008.  In addition, McCain couldn't waste time there. He had to figure in the end it would remain in the GOP column anyhow to have any shot and of course it didn't.  With a far less enthusiastic electorate in 2012, IN was an easy GOP win again and should remain that way in the near future.