Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!
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Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!  (Read 31942 times)
Lumine
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« Reply #25 on: April 29, 2013, 05:28:37 PM »

Major surprises happened in the last days:

April 23-29:

-Several scandals for the Coalition happened in a very short period of time: The 2012 Census was discovered to have been manipulated, which caused the resignation of the of the INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) Director.

-Two big scandals came out against Laurence Golborne: The first one revealed some instances of corruption while he was CEO of Cencosud, and the second one revealed that he had large amounts of money in foreign accounts.

-UDI (Union Democrata Independiente) called for an emergency meeting this day, and Laurence Golborne chose to withdraw from the race. Since the primary candidates have to enter the race before April 30th, UDI has to either choose a compromise candidate for tomorrow, or decline the Primaries with RN and choose a candidate which will fight in the first round.
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Lumine
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« Reply #26 on: April 29, 2013, 06:13:41 PM »

April 23-29: (Continuation)

-After 30-45 minutes of debate, UDI chose their next candidate. Despite some party leaders suggesting Minister Evelyn Matthei (former Senator and Pre-Presidential Candidate in 1993), they chose Economy Minister Pablo Longueira, former Senator and former UDI Chairman, who is believed to have been the key to the electoral success of UDI (strongest single party in Chile). Longueira is disliked (and in some cases hated) by the left, but very popular with UDI and several centrists and independents.

-Alfredo Sfeir Younis, Economist and President of the Zambuling Institute for Human Transformation, is proclaimed Presidential candidate by the Ecologist Party (PE).

Current State of the Race:

Concertacion:
Michelle Bachelet (PS-PPD-MAS)
Andres Velasco (IND)
Claudio Orrego (DC)
Jose Antonio Gomez (PRSD)

Coalicion:
Andres Allamand (RN)
Pablo Longueira (UDI)

Independents:
Tomas Jocelyn-Holt (IND, ex-DC)
Franco Parisi (IND)

Others:
Marco Enriquez Ominami (PRO)
Claude Marcel (PH)
Alfredo Sfeir Younis (PE)
Roxana Miranda (PI)

Parties without nominee:

PRI (Partido Regionalista Independiente) and PC (Partido Comunista).


First Round Predictions:

Using some polls, previous knowledge of Chilean politics and the opinions of several candidates and experts, the field in the First Round should work out like this:

Strong Candidates:

Bachelet: 45-55%
Allamand/Longueira: 33-35%
Parisi: 10-15%
Ominami: 8-12%

Weak Candidates:

Jocelyn-Holt: 1-2%
Marcel: 1-2%
Sfeir Younis: 1%
Miranda: 1%
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #27 on: May 01, 2013, 11:29:02 AM »

Thanks for these updates. Smiley
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Lumine
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« Reply #28 on: May 02, 2013, 08:48:54 PM »


Thanks to you!

And:

April 29-May 2:

-Despite the fact that Longueira is only popular with the right (and several lower income sectors in which his party has it's power base), and despised by both the left and the Chilean businessmen, several members of the Coalicion seem to think that, unlike Golborne (who was populist and anti-goverment), Longueira can appeal to broad sides of RN and UDI, thus making the primaries (which he finally entered) still competitive.

-RN ends up being the only party to hold primaries to the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. UDI decided not to use them, and the Concertacion-PC-MAS deal was cancelled when the PRSD (Partido Radical Social Democrata) demanded an extra Senate seat right before the deadline for the Primaries.

-PRI and the Partido Liberal (6-7% of the electorate, mostly centrists) decided not to join the "Opposition Pact" formed by the Concertacion, MAS and PC. It's possible that they might join in an Alliance, but it remains to be seen.
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Velasco
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« Reply #29 on: May 02, 2013, 10:10:09 PM »

Who do you believe with most chances in the Coalition Primaries, Allamand or Longueira? Once Golborne is (surprisingly) out, previous polls suggest that Bachelet might have an easier race, but it's too soon to say anything, of course. May I bet for Longueira, given that UDI has a stronger party structure, or do you think that Allamand will fight hard?
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Lumine
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« Reply #30 on: May 02, 2013, 10:34:20 PM »

Who do you believe with most chances in the Coalition Primaries, Allamand or Longueira? Once Golborne is (surprisingly) out, previous polls suggest that Bachelet might have an easier race, but it's too soon to say anything, of course. May I bet for Longueira, given that UDI has a stronger party structure, or do you think that Allamand will fight hard?

Hmmmm... I would give Longueira the edge, since he can get out the UDI vote and use their financial and logistical advantages to the maximum level. However, UDI lacks the necessary self-confidence to win a Presidential Primary, and this might pose a big problem in the primaries. So far, this is their Presidential history:

1989: No Candidate.
1993: Manuel Feliu, a businessman they backed, got defeated in a Convention with RN.
1999-2000: The strong campaign of Mayor Joaquin Lavin launches UDI to the real national stage, but they narrowly lose the Second Round against Lagos.
2005-2006: Lavin goes again, and he fights against Sebastian Piñera in the First Round. Piñera defeats Lavin in an upset, and UDI's self-confidence is absolutely destroyed.
2009-2010: Piñera runs again, nobody wants to challenge him from the right.
2013: Golborne runs and ends up in an epic fail.

Thus, and even if Longueira is the strongest candidate they've got, they can only win if they truly believe they can win. In 1993, RN and UDI backed Senator Arturo Alessandri Besa, but they abandoned him right away once the polls didn't look good (they even took away his funding so they could spend more in local races). Allamand's has an enthusiastic and efficient campaign, and if he can convince UDI that they can't win with Longueria, it's game over.

Now, the real problem for the Coaltion is that both candidates won't be able to overcome Bachelet because of some flaws: Both of them are disliked by the Chilean businessmen, Allamand lacks charisma, and Longueira, while charismatic and empathic, is too right wing in social issues to be electable. Piñera won in 2009 because of the fatigue of the Concertacion and his "moderate message", and they can't use that message since they are fighting Bachelet, and the Piñera legacy is viewed as negative (I disagree, but that's my opinion).
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Lumine
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« Reply #31 on: May 10, 2013, 08:25:30 PM »

May 2-May 10:

-Michelle Bachelet has suffered from heavy fights among the members of the Concertacion, who finally refused to establish primaries for the Parliament. Andres Velasco almost withdrew from the Presidential Primaries, and internal polling shows up that Bachelet's support has fallen from 55-60% to about 45%, all in two months. Another polls shows up that Bachelet will win the primary with about 60% against Velasco (10%), Gomez (5%), and Claudio Orrego with 15% (up from 6-7% in February Polls).

-Longueira has started a strong campaign to overcome Allamand, and while the left and the center have criticised him for his support of Pinochet, polls show him with 34% against Allamand's 32% in the Coalicion Primary.

-Franco Parisi finally reached the 37.000 signatures required to qualify for the first round. Tomas Jocelyn-Holt comes behind with 25.000-30.000 signatures, and Roxana Miranda and Alfredo Sfeir Younis have begun the collection of signatures. Ominami and Claude would also qualify due to the support of Partido Progresista (PRO) and Partido Humanista (PH).

-After a long time of silence, President Piñera gave a radio interview in which he confessed to be "tired of getting his butt kicked from all sides" (my own translation for "a mi me dan como caja todo el santo dia"), and stated that he is entitled to him own opinion about his administration.

-May 10th: A judge rules that Michelle Bachelet can be legally accused of the deaths of several chileans during the 2012 Earthquake, due to negligence. The possibility of a trial was brushed off by several leaders of the Concertacion, who believe that this would be nothing more than a political trial.

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Velasco
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« Reply #32 on: May 13, 2013, 07:58:49 AM »

-May 10th: A judge rules that Michelle Bachelet can be legally accused of the deaths of several chileans during the 2012 Earthquake, due to negligence. The possibility of a trial was brushed off by several leaders of the Concertacion, who believe that this would be nothing more than a political trial.

What can you say us about the judge who accepted the lawsuit? Those who were the plaintiffs?
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Lumine
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« Reply #33 on: May 13, 2013, 12:12:25 PM »

-May 10th: A judge rules that Michelle Bachelet can be legally accused of the deaths of several chileans during the 2012 Earthquake, due to negligence. The possibility of a trial was brushed off by several leaders of the Concertacion, who believe that this would be nothing more than a political trial.

What can you say us about the judge who accepted the lawsuit? Those who were the plaintiffs?

As far as I know, Judge Daniel Urrutia is quite young, and somewhat liberal. He has been involved in some important cases, but he is virtually unknown. The group that launched the lawsuit is quite serious about it, and they have been since 2010 (they are the families of several chileans who died in coastal towns). However, there are many doubts about the lawyer behind them, Raul Meza, since he is a member of UDI. There are some rumors about him being quite corrupt, but they remain rumors. To be honest, both sides lack credibility...
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Lumine
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« Reply #34 on: June 06, 2013, 09:12:03 PM »

I decided to wait a few weeks to see how the first part of the primary race unfolded:

May 10-June 6:

-The Concertacion and the Coalition managed to organize debates for their respective primaries: The Concertacion debate (Bachelet v. Gomez v. Velasco v. Orrego) is set for June 10, and the Coalicion debate (Allamand v. Longueira) will be on June 13.

-General Controversies: Several candidates have been attacked in some way: A college student spit at Bachelet at a rally in Arica, eggs were thrown against Longueira in Concepcion and Franco Parisi recieved several death threats.

-Concertacion: Since Bachelet's victory in the primary is a foregone conclusion (despite the fact the she has lost a lot of support lately), the remaining candidates have fiercely fought for the second spot, so they can remain a viable option of leadership. Senator Gomez tried to turn left by asking the PC to support him, but the communists decided to back Bachelet. Thus, Gomez spent most of his political capital, and Bachelet had to go to the left instead of the center. Velasco and Orrego have tried to win the more conservative vote, and while Velasco is quite relaxed about the process, Orrego and the DC know that unless they get second place, the Concertacion might become too left wing for them.

-Coalicion: Allamand has tried to lead a modern style campaign with several "creative" (some say childish, other say creative) ads, rallies and barnstorming the big cities, in the hopes that increased turnout will help him. Longueira has tried by bus tours, rallies and a promotion of his social record. On a different note, Laurence Golborne was offered to be ambassador before OCDE or a senate candidate, but lack of support in the UDI (which he harshly criticised) made those options impractical.

-The Government: Now considered a lame duck due to the Presidential race, President Piñera's approval ratings have skyrocketed and he hit 40% for the first time since 2011. Despite his best attempts to remain out of the Presidential race, Ministers Luciano Cruz Coke (Culture, former actor and the most popular minister) and Joaquin Lavin (MIDEPLAN, and former presidential candidate) resigned today to join the Allamand (Cruz Coke) and Longueira (Lavin) campaigns. Piñera's gambit with Carolina Schmidt as the Education Minister ended up an epic fail, since her approval ratings went from 72% to 36% in a month.

-The rest: Roxana Miranda, the social activist, managed to legalize the Partido Igualdad, so she will go to the first round, already joining Ominami and Parisi. Tomas Jocelyn-Holt, Alfredo Sfeir Younis and Marcel Claude still need to get enough signatures.
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Lumine
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« Reply #35 on: June 30, 2013, 11:03:36 AM »

Primary Time!

After months of intense campaigning, Golborne going down in flames and Bachelet under heavy fire from everywere primaries are here! Polling (unreliable in Chile unless its a close election like 1999-2000) shows a massive Bachelet victory (with 75%) and a narrow victory of Allamand v. Longueira. I will finally be able to vote (since I turned 18 in April), and despite my new found sympaties for Velasco and Orrego, I'll vote for Allamand here.

Since the results will start coming in a few more hours, I'll try to explain Part II of the Primary:

June 7-June 30:

In general: Turnout expected to be 10%, polling scarse and unrelaible. Concertacion changes name to "Nueva Mayoria" (New Majority) for this election, and expect to return to the old one soon.

Debates: There were four of them:
-Concertacion 1: Gomez had an epic fail attacking Bachelet to win the hard left vote, she won.
-Concertacion 2: Bachelet silent, Gomez ignored, and a round between Velasco and Orrego to win the center, filled with references to both to them beign supposed "sell-outs" to the right.
-Coalition 1 and 2: No surprises, Longueira and Allamand chose to play nice and even their supporters were bored.

Propaganda: At the last moment congress approved a law allowing TV commercials to be shown on TV, but due to time only two days of propaganda were allowed. As a results, candidates relied on using online videos. Bachelet showed her record, Gomez and Velasco his proposals, Orrego appealed to the old strengths of the DC, Allamand used the muppets and Star Wars (no kidding) and Longueira put foward his extensive social work in the poorer parts of Santiago (sectors that somehow are used to vote UDI).

The Government: Piñera stopped caring. Attacked from all sides, he decided to stay out of the race and only promote the primaries as a democratic mechanism (probably because the use of primaries would have saved his 1993 or 1999 campaigns).

Students: Back on the streets, trying to get the attention of the candidates. They even captured 28 schools that were to serve as voting places, and the police had to get them out (most of the time in a nice way, though).
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Lumine
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« Reply #36 on: June 30, 2013, 06:06:18 PM »

2% in:

Bachelet: 71,68%
Velasco: 13,10%
Orrego: 8,92%
Gomez: 6,28%

Allamand: 50,97%
Longueira: 49,02%
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Lumine
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« Reply #37 on: June 30, 2013, 09:48:06 PM »

During the afternoon the results where quite clear: Bachelet had won a landslide. Still, the Allamand/Longueira battle was very close, until Longueira pulled off some sort of upset against Allamand, who was expect to win a close battle. RN and the DC are devastated, UDI is energized, and I'm screwed and without a candidate, since Longueira is too far to the right for me.

Still, with 92% of the vote already in, here are the final results:

Bachelet: 73,76%
Velasco: 12,52%
Orrego: 8,70%
Gomez: 4,99%

Allamand: 48,89%
Longueira: 51,10%
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Velasco
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« Reply #38 on: July 02, 2013, 02:03:59 AM »

According to Wikipedia the final results are:

Nueva Mayoría:

Bachelet (PS) 73.05%; Velasco (IND) 13%; Orrego (DC) 8.87%; Gómez (PRSD) 5.06%.

Also, there are results by region. Bachelet got a 65% in the Santiago Metropolitan and around 73% in Valparaíso and Antofagasta, whereas in the rest of regions percentages raise to 80% in many cases. Velasco performed well in the Metropolitan (17.77%), Antofagasta (14.2%) and Valparaíso (12.96%) and Obrego only breaks 10% in the Metropolitan region.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primarias_presidenciales_de_la_Nueva_Mayor%C3%ADa_de_2013#Resultados

Alianza: Longueira (UDI) 51.37%; Allamand (RN) 48.62%.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primarias_presidenciales_de_la_Alianza_de_2013#Resultados


Around 3 million of Chileans voted in the primaries, more than 2.1 million for the Concertación candidates. Bachelet got more votes than the addition of all her Concertación opponents and the Alianza candidates. Orrego and Gómez stated that they are at the disposal of Bachelet, but Velasco said that he's going to vote for her but he won't call his voters to do so. Predictably, most of Velasco's supporters will vote for Bachelet and very few for Longueira.

On the other hand, Bachelet is endorsed by the Communist Party and the student leader Camila Vallejo changed her initial opposition and now supports the Concertación candidate. Nevertheless, in the PC and especially in the student movement there are many critics and Bachelet will have to work hard, and her promises on structural reforms convincing enough, to attract all the left to her side.  Also, Bachelet will have to do balances with the Christian Democracy, very weakened with the result, which is remiss to have the communists in the government. PC subordinates entering in a government pact to the definitive draft of Bachelet's program. The PC and the DC, aside from being traditional adversaries, support opposite positions in questions like abortion or marijuana decriminalization. Vallejo stated that making alliances with the DC hurts her stomach a bit.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #39 on: July 02, 2013, 02:06:55 AM »

By how much is Bachelet running ahead of Longueira in the general election ?

60-40 ?

70-30 ?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #40 on: July 02, 2013, 02:27:15 AM »

It is me, or that election is looking like it will be very boring?
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Lumine
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« Reply #41 on: July 02, 2013, 08:29:23 PM »

According to Wikipedia the final results are:

Nueva Mayoría:

Bachelet (PS) 73.05%; Velasco (IND) 13%; Orrego (DC) 8.87%; Gómez (PRSD) 5.06%.

Also, there are results by region. Bachelet got a 65% in the Santiago Metropolitan and around 73% in Valparaíso and Antofagasta, whereas in the rest of regions percentages raise to 80% in many cases. Velasco performed well in the Metropolitan (17.77%), Antofagasta (14.2%) and Valparaíso (12.96%) and Obrego only breaks 10% in the Metropolitan region.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primarias_presidenciales_de_la_Nueva_Mayor%C3%ADa_de_2013#Resultados

Alianza: Longueira (UDI) 51.37%; Allamand (RN) 48.62%.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primarias_presidenciales_de_la_Alianza_de_2013#Resultados


Around 3 million of Chileans voted in the primaries, more than 2.1 million for the Concertación candidates. Bachelet got more votes than the addition of all her Concertación opponents and the Alianza candidates. Orrego and Gómez stated that they are at the disposal of Bachelet, but Velasco said that he's going to vote for her but he won't call his voters to do so. Predictably, most of Velasco's supporters will vote for Bachelet and very few for Longueira.

On the other hand, Bachelet is endorsed by the Communist Party and the student leader Camila Vallejo changed her initial opposition and now supports the Concertación candidate. Nevertheless, in the PC and especially in the student movement there are many critics and Bachelet will have to work hard, and her promises on structural reforms convincing enough, to attract all the left to her side.  Also, Bachelet will have to do balances with the Christian Democracy, very weakened with the result, which is remiss to have the communists in the government. PC subordinates entering in a government pact to the definitive draft of Bachelet's program. The PC and the DC, aside from being traditional adversaries, support opposite positions in questions like abortion or marijuana decriminalization. Vallejo stated that making alliances with the DC hurts her stomach a bit.

Indeed, Vallejo lost quite a bit of credibility after endorsing Bachelet, and the DC can't stand her. They can't stand the right either, so the DC is going to have a lot of problems from now on, with or withour Bachelet. Velasco managed to "win" in the sense that he came in second, he won a lot of prestige and he has the chance to return in 2017, while Gomez is outright finished (and humilliated) and Orrego... well, he can't do anything as long as the DC grows weaker and weaker.

By how much is Bachelet running ahead of Longueira in the general election ?

60-40 ?

70-30 ?

There are no polls as of yet (and polling here is always wrong), but I'd say 65-35 in a Second Round. The First Round depends on the alternative candidates now.

It is me, or that election is looking like it will be very boring?

Well, it depends. While it is true that Allamand was the only one with the appeal to make it close (not win, but at least give us another 1999-2000), Longueira is not to be underestimated. Unlike Arturo Alessandri Besa in 1993 (who lacked political support) or Hernan Büchi (not really interested in the Presidency), Longueira is a far better campaigner that Bachelet (but she would destroy him in a debate), so we won't be seeing his campaign collapse and slip behind 30%. As long as the "alternative" candidates bleed Bachelet in the first round (since Longueira will lose votes only to Parisi and perhaps Jocelyn-Holt, and Bachelet will have four or six candidates fighting the left wing vote), Longueira can claim victory by forcing a second round that he will lose anyway.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #42 on: July 02, 2013, 09:18:45 PM »

If Bachelet becomes able to get a Constituent Assembly to make reforms, including political system, would coalitions break-up? If UDI refused to support him and if DC failed to get Concertacion nominee in 2009, Piñera could have ran as centrista in coalition with DC.
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Lumine
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« Reply #43 on: July 02, 2013, 09:30:13 PM »

If Bachelet becomes able to get a Constituent Assembly to make reforms, including political system, would coalitions break-up? If UDI refused to support him and if DC failed to get Concertacion nominee in 2009, Piñera could have ran as centrista in coalition with DC.

That is surely a fascinating scenario, and nothing would help the country more than breaking the Coalitions and ending the Binomial Parliamentary system, but there are a few problems to create a centrist coalition in Chile... RN would not mind brokering an alliance with DC (they even tried one in 2010 with the PRSD, and they were social democrats), but the DC... They have used anti-right rethoric for the past 32 years and their own right-wing (los "Colorines") were obliterated by Bachelet.

Still, there are two possible scenarios for that to happen:

1.- DC breaks up and the binomial is out: Then you might have an RN willing to create a centrist pact to counter the influence of the left and UDI.
2.- Evolucion Politica, a newly created centre-right (and liberal) movement gains strength and successfully pushes RN and DC to the center. (This one depends on how well they manage to do in congress this year)
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Velasco
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« Reply #44 on: July 03, 2013, 06:09:45 AM »

I think it was the right the most opposed to put an end to the Binomial Parliamentary System, which is in fact the cause of the polarization between the two coalitions. Don't you think people like Piñera (who was opposed to Pinochet in the past) or 'reformists' in a similar line would fit well with DC?
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Lumine
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« Reply #45 on: July 04, 2013, 04:37:03 PM »

I think it was the right the most opposed to put an end to the Binomial Parliamentary System, which is in fact the cause of the polarization between the two coalitions. Don't you think people like Piñera (who was opposed to Pinochet in the past) or 'reformists' in a similar line would fit well with DC?

They would, yes (Piñera wanted to join the DC in 1988, but he wanted a position of power in the party and they refused him), but after more than twenty years of harsh rhetoric from both sides, a coalition with them would be hard to create. Still, if the DC continues to lose power, if Bachelet grows closer with the Communist Party, and if UDI proves too much of a tyrant for the liberal right he just defeated, it is possible. But it requires the right moment and place.
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Lumine
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« Reply #46 on: July 17, 2013, 05:41:51 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2013, 05:44:11 PM by Archduke Lumine »

Post-Primary: Or, how the campaign got insane:

July 1 - July 17: The aftermath of the primary brought good and bad results. Good for Bachelet, who proved her strength, good for Velasco, who proved his leadership, and good for Longueira, who defeated RN. Gomez, Orrego and Allamand were humiliated, and while the first two merely joined Bachelet's forces and decided to face defeat with dignity, Allamand decided to go for the Senate, destroying what was left of his reputation and the respect I had for him (while leaving Catalina Parot, his supporter, without the opportunity to go for that same seat).

Tomas Jocelyn-Holt had 35.000 signatures and he needed 2.000 more, Franco Parisi had 60.000 signatures, Roxana Miranda, Marcel Claude and Marco Enriquez-Ominami were on the ballot and other candidates like Alfredo Sfeir, Eduardo Diaz and Gustavo Ruz struggled to get enough signatures. Longueira managed to join RN and UDI to put up a fight, and Bachelet prepared her forces.

At the same time, RN and the Concertacion managed to put together an agreement to modify up the Binomial system and eliminate some of the unfair parts of it. UDI and the Government, left aside, decided to create their own plan (a very rushed and useless proposal).

It was the fight of Longueira and a bunch of underdogs v. Bachelet.

But Longueira dropped out, today... He had depression, and his health was deteriorating quickly. Therefore, the Coalicion is in ruins, there are no available candidates, and the election is for all purposes over, since Bachelet's victory is now inevitable. Just like the 1988 Democratic Primaries, we have "Michelle Bachelet and the seven/eight dwarfs", and she is not going down in flames like Gary Hart.

So screw the coalition, I'm sick of the bickering and the hegemony of UDI and the far right, I will be voting independent in this election.
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« Reply #47 on: July 17, 2013, 06:39:37 PM »

Does the right will be allowed to have a replacement candidate?
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« Reply #48 on: July 17, 2013, 07:37:17 PM »

Does the right will be allowed to have a replacement candidate?

Yes, they have until August 19th, and the parties have the right to choose a joint candidate or two separate candidates for the first round. But the problem is that they lack options. The have the defeated candidates, but Golborne said no and Allamand lost his credibility and self-confidence. They also have two minor options with former Minister Felipe Kast (leader of Evolucion Politica, a new movement from the liberal right) and Mayor Manuel Jose Ossandon (from RN, with low name recognition but also quite charismatic), and they could bring up the last big candidate they have left: Minister and Former Senator Evelyn Matthei, but even she has a lot of weaknesses.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #49 on: July 17, 2013, 07:58:24 PM »

Does the right will be allowed to have a replacement candidate?

Yes, they have until August 19th, and the parties have the right to choose a joint candidate or two separate candidates for the first round. But the problem is that they lack options. The have the defeated candidates, but Golborne said no and Allamand lost his credibility and self-confidence. They also have two minor options with former Minister Felipe Kast (leader of Evolucion Politica, a new movement from the liberal right) and Mayor Manuel Jose Ossandon (from RN, with low name recognition but also quite charismatic), and they could bring up the last big candidate they have left: Minister and Former Senator Evelyn Matthei, but even she has a lot of weaknesses.

So, the question is whether Bachelet wins by 1st or 2nd round, then?
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