Overall gay marriage support in the Senate: with map!

[Bacon King]

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread


Democrats:
49 Supporters
5 Opponents (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Pryor)
1 Ambiguous (Landrieu)

Republicans:
2 Supporter (Kirk, Portman)
41 Opponents
2 Ambiguous (Collins, Murkowski)

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
  
• Hagan and Tester both sound like they'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
  
• Landrieu avoids making any statements on the issue at all costs is evolving!
  
• Casey looks to be in the middle of an "evolution" on the issue and is clearly hoping the Supreme Court solves everything so he won't have to make any difficult votes
  
• Donnelly sounds like he's beginning an "evolution" of his own
• Heitkamp would probably support gay marriage if she was from a liberal state; the other five Democratic opponents appear to genuinely oppose it on principle

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed.

UPDATE: Current as of 4/4

[Earthling]

Tester was reelected last year, why would he worry about 2018 now? By that time gay marriage can already be legal and Montana doesn't seem to be such a hardline conservative state.

Hagan, Landrieu and Pryor are from more conservative states and have to run for reelection next year. I doubt they will make any statement supporting gay marriage before the election, whatever the Supreme Court does.

The others are more conservative Democrats (Nelson, Manchin, Johnson) and probably do not support gay marriage and Donnelly and Heitkamp are both new elected Senators from conservative states who seem like they don't want to jeopardise their political future yet.

And Casey is just a weird case.

[minionofmidas]

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread

If I were a moderator I'd be hard fighting the temptation to go "you figured wrong. Merged" on you.

[Horus]

Here is a list of all Dem congresspersons who are either against or amiguous.

Kurt Schrader (OR)
Ron Barber (AZ)
Jim Costa (CA)
Juan Vargas (CA)
Dina Titus (NV)
Collin Peterson (MN)
Ron Kind (WI)
Cedric Richmond (LA)
Filemon Vela (TX)
Gene Green (TX)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Ruben Hinojosa (TX)
Pete Gallego (TX)
Terri Sewell (AL)
Bennie Thompson (MS)
David Scott (GA)
Sanford Bishop (GA)
John Barrow (GA)
Corrine Brown (FL)
Mike McIntyre (NC)
GK Butterfield (NC)
Nick Rahall (WV)
Pete Visclosky (IN)
Dan Lipinski (IL)
Bill Enyart (IL)
Bobby Rush?! (IL)
John Larson?!?!? (CT)
Marcy Kaptur (OH)
John Carney (DE)
Bill Owens (NY)

The worst here are Owens and Larson. They come from states that already have gay marriage yet don't support it themselves. Titus makes no sense either. Almost all of the rest are either Blue Dogs or represent rural southern districts.

[Miles]

Most of the comments I've seen these past few days on Hagan's Facebook page are about gay marriage, even though she's posting about jobs/local issues; I think she'll definitely by talking more about SSM during the campaign.

[Miles]

• Landrieu avoids making any statements on the issue at all costs

From yesterday:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd put her in the same category that you have Hagan and Tester in.

[Horus]

Now, here is a list of GOP congresspeople who support SSM:

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL)
Richard Hanna (NY)

[minionofmidas]

Here is a list of all Dem congresspersons who are either against or amiguous.

Kurt Schrader (OR)
Ron Barber (AZ)
Jim Costa (CA)
Juan Vargas (CA)
Dina Titus (NV)
Collin Peterson (MN)
Ron Kind (WI)
Cedric Richmond (LA)
Filemon Vela (TX)
Gene Green (TX)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Ruben Hinojosa (TX)
Pete Gallego (TX)
Terri Sewell (AL)
Bennie Thompson (MS)
David Scott (GA)
Sanford Bishop (GA)
John Barrow (GA)
Corrine Brown (FL)
Mike McIntyre (NC)
GK Butterfield (NC)
Nick Rahall (WV)
Pete Visclosky (IN)
Dan Lipinski (IL)
Bill Enyart (IL)
Bobby Rush?! (IL)
John Larson?!?!? (CT)
Marcy Kaptur (OH)
John Carney (DE)
Bill Owens (NY)

The worst here are Owens and Larson. They come from states that already have gay marriage yet don't support it themselves. Titus makes no sense either. Almost all of the rest are either Blue Dogs or represent rural southern districts.

Some oddities on here. What's the source of the list?

[Horus]

Here is a list of all Dem congresspersons who are either against or amiguous.

Kurt Schrader (OR)
Ron Barber (AZ)
Jim Costa (CA)
Juan Vargas (CA)
Dina Titus (NV)
Collin Peterson (MN)
Ron Kind (WI)
Cedric Richmond (LA)
Filemon Vela (TX)
Gene Green (TX)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Ruben Hinojosa (TX)
Pete Gallego (TX)
Terri Sewell (AL)
Bennie Thompson (MS)
David Scott (GA)
Sanford Bishop (GA)
John Barrow (GA)
Corrine Brown (FL)
Mike McIntyre (NC)
GK Butterfield (NC)
Nick Rahall (WV)
Pete Visclosky (IN)
Dan Lipinski (IL)
Bill Enyart (IL)
Bobby Rush?! (IL)
John Larson?!?!? (CT)
Marcy Kaptur (OH)
John Carney (DE)
Bill Owens (NY)

The worst here are Owens and Larson. They come from states that already have gay marriage yet don't support it themselves. Titus makes no sense either. Almost all of the rest are either Blue Dogs or represent rural southern districts.

Some oddities on here. What's the source of the list?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_supporters_of_same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States

All of the members I listed are not on the list under members of the US house.

[ilikeverin]

the map needs changed

Bless you!

[pbrower2a]

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread

Oh cool, according to that wiki link and the corresponding page of gay marriage opponents, a plurality of Senators now support SSM (43 in favor, 41 opposed).

UPDATE

I sperg'd out and actually researched it. Actual breakdown is as follows:

Democrats:
45 Supporters
6 Opponents (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Nelson, Pryor)
4 Ambiguous (Casey, Hagan, Landrieu, Tester)

Republicans:
1 Supporter (Portman)
42 Opponents
2 Ambiguous (Collins, Kirk)

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan and Tester both sound like they'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
• Landrieu avoids making any statements on the issue at all costs
• Casey looks to be in the middle of an "evolution" on the issue and is clearly hoping the Supreme Court solves everything so he won't have to make any difficult votes
• Donnelly sounds like he's beginning an "evolution" of his own
• Heitkamp would probably support gay marriage if she was from a liberal state; the other five Democratic opponents appear to genuinely oppose it on principle

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed. (errors possible, I made the map pretty quickly)

[minionofmidas]

Here is a list of all Dem congresspersons who are either against or amiguous.

Kurt Schrader (OR)
Ron Barber (AZ)
Jim Costa (CA)
Juan Vargas (CA)
Dina Titus (NV)
Collin Peterson (MN)
Ron Kind (WI)
Cedric Richmond (LA)
Filemon Vela (TX)
Gene Green (TX)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Ruben Hinojosa (TX)
Pete Gallego (TX)
Terri Sewell (AL)
Bennie Thompson (MS)
David Scott (GA)
Sanford Bishop (GA)
John Barrow (GA)
Corrine Brown (FL)
Mike McIntyre (NC)
GK Butterfield (NC)
Nick Rahall (WV)
Pete Visclosky (IN)
Dan Lipinski (IL)
Bill Enyart (IL)
Bobby Rush?! (IL)
John Larson?!?!? (CT)
Marcy Kaptur (OH)
John Carney (DE)
Bill Owens (NY)

The worst here are Owens and Larson. They come from states that already have gay marriage yet don't support it themselves. Titus makes no sense either. Almost all of the rest are either Blue Dogs or represent rural southern districts.

Some oddities on here. What's the source of the list?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_supporters_of_same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States

All of the members I listed are not on the list under members of the US house.

Okay, doing the footwork until I got bored, Schrader, Costa, Titus and Sewell (happened on that) are for civil unions but against marriage (Titus' position is at least from 2010 and Schrader's at least from 2011, so they may evolve ), Ron Barber did not sign the Amicus brief but did sign as a cosponsor to DOMA repeal in the House - although that could still fit with a Rubioesque position - and here's Vargas' tortured reasoning:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Horus]

Here is a list of all Dem congresspersons who are either against or amiguous.

Kurt Schrader (OR)
Ron Barber (AZ)
Jim Costa (CA)
Juan Vargas (CA)
Dina Titus (NV)
Collin Peterson (MN)
Ron Kind (WI)
Cedric Richmond (LA)
Filemon Vela (TX)
Gene Green (TX)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Ruben Hinojosa (TX)
Pete Gallego (TX)
Terri Sewell (AL)
Bennie Thompson (MS)
David Scott (GA)
Sanford Bishop (GA)
John Barrow (GA)
Corrine Brown (FL)
Mike McIntyre (NC)
GK Butterfield (NC)
Nick Rahall (WV)
Pete Visclosky (IN)
Dan Lipinski (IL)
Bill Enyart (IL)
Bobby Rush?! (IL)
John Larson?!?!? (CT)
Marcy Kaptur (OH)
John Carney (DE)
Bill Owens (NY)

The worst here are Owens and Larson. They come from states that already have gay marriage yet don't support it themselves. Titus makes no sense either. Almost all of the rest are either Blue Dogs or represent rural southern districts.

Some oddities on here. What's the source of the list?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_supporters_of_same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States

All of the members I listed are not on the list under members of the US house.

Okay, doing the footwork until I got bored, Schrader, Costa, Titus and Sewell (happened on that) are for civil unions but against marriage (Titus' position is at least from 2010 and Schrader's at least from 2011, so they may evolve ), Ron Barber did not sign the Amicus brief but did sign as a cosponsor to DOMA repeal in the House - although that could still fit with a Rubioesque position - and here's Vargas' tortured reasoning:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Nice work, I think if it came down to a vote Vargas, Titus and Sewell would all be swayable. Continuing on, Peterson voted for a constitutional ban and a gay adoption ban. No chance there. Kind appears to have said virtually nothing on the issue, I would guess he's in the same boat as Landrieu. I couldn't find much on Cedric Richmond, but there were several links to rumors that he himself is gay. Vela supports DOMA repeal, possibly could support gay marriage. Green and Cuellar do not, they can probably be counted out. Gallego is only for civil unions but again being new there wasn't much either way.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The real question is the House.  By the time the House might consider repealing DOMA, the Senate would likely be clearly in favor of repeal.

[Bacon King]

Map updated to include Tester!

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread

If I were a moderator I'd be hard fighting the temptation to go "you figured wrong. Merged" on you.

The real question is the House.  By the time the House might consider repealing DOMA, the Senate would likely be clearly in favor of repeal.

Indeed; I'd like to do a full analysis of the House as well when I have the time to look through everyone. On that note, thanks to Sheliak for the list

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Would you consider putting Paul in the "ambiguous"?

[Bacon King]

Would you consider putting Paul in the "ambiguous"?

Only if he says something to indicate he might be support gay marriage. He doesn't, though; the only remotely ambiguous comments he's made on the subject have been that he thinks it's an issue states should decide. Effectively that just means he'd oppose a Federal constitutional amendment banning it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[socaldem]

House GOPers whose districts likely favor gay marriage and may be vulnerable to a challenge or may need to change their positions:

*May be open to eventually adjust position

Rep. Jeff Denham R-CA-10
Rep. Buck Mckeon R-CA-25
Rep. Ed Royce R-CA-39*
Rep. John Campbell R-CA-45*
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher R-CA-48*
Rep. Darrell Issa R-CA-49*

Rep. Bill Young R-FL-13*

Rep. Tom Latham R-IA-03*

Rep. Robert Holtgren R-IL-14

Rep. John Kline R-MN-02
Rep. Eric Paulsen R-MN-03*

Rep. Justin Amash R-MI-03
Rep. Fred Upton R-MI-06*
Rep. Tim Walberg R-MI-07
Rep. Mike Rogers R-MI-08*
Rep. Kerry Bentivolio R-MI-11

Rep. Lee Terry R-NE-02*

Rep. Joe Heck R-NV-02

Rep. Frank Lobiondo R-NJ-02*
Rep. John Runyan R-NJ-03
Rep. Chris Smith, R-NJ-04*
Rep. Scott Garrett R-NJ-05
Rep. Leonard Lance R-NJ-07
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen R-NJ-11*

Rep. Peter King R-NY-02*
Rep. Mike Grimm R-NY-11
Rep. Chris Gibson R-NY-19*
Rep. Tom Reed R-NY-23*

Rep. Steve Chabot R-OH-01
Rep. Mike Turner R-OH-10*
Rep. Jim Renacci R-OH-16
Rep. Dave Joyce R-OH-14

Rep. Jim Gerlach R-PA-06*
Rep. Pat Meehan R-PA-07*
Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick R-PA-08

Rep. Frank Wolf VA-10*

Rep. Jaime Herrera-Beutler R-WA-03*
Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rogers R-WA-05
Rep. Dave Reichert R-WA-08*

Rep. Paul Ryan R-WI-01
Rep. Reed Ribble R-WI-07

Republican Challenger for gay marriage

Carl DeMaio R-CA-52

Bolded districts are likely already in favor of gay marriage.

The issue has been such a big one in California over the last few years and the gays have won on the issue. Polls show that the state is now 60% in favor of gay marriage and it is an issue that can be used aggressively against suburban GOPers in Orange, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Riverside counties as a wedge issue by dems in normally Republican areas.

Ditto in New York, New England (though no congresscritters there!), Washington, and, to some extent, the Upper Midwest.

[greenforest32]

Are Casey, Carper, and Nelson going to hold out until the Supreme Court's decision in June?

[ilikeverin]

If Kline or Paulsen cracked, it'll be the sign of the deluge.  Not that I think it's impossible.  But nationwide support for gay marriage would be like above 60% or something.

[Ban my account ffs!]

If Kline or Paulsen cracked, it'll be the sign of the deluge.  Not that I think it's impossible.  But nationwide support for gay marriage would be like above 60% or something.

Which of those two would you predict first?  I'm actually inKlined to think Kline.  He has seemed more reasonable lately than usual.

[Ogre Mage]

Great work B.K.

[Donerail]

Rep. Bill Young R-FL-13*

The district does favor SSM, Young will most certainly not be changing his position and does not need to do so, and is just as likely to be knocked out of his seat by an asteroid impact as by a challenger. I think you might be overestimating how much of a wedge issue this is.

[memphis]

I want to go on record saying that I think the term "evolve" is inane. Even if we pretend the Congressman (or prez; he coined the term) aren't just being cynical, at least have the sincerity to say they've changed their minds. Flip flopping is not evolution.

[socaldem]

Rep. Bill Young R-FL-13*

The district does favor SSM, Young will most certainly not be changing his position and does not need to do so, and is just as likely to be knocked out of his seat by an asteroid impact as by a challenger. I think you might be overestimating how much of a wedge issue this is.

LOL...this seat would more likely be a target in an open seat situation. I didn't think that Bill Young was really a culture warrior but given his age, he probably is wary of evolution on anything.