Why did Maggie Hassan underpoll so severely?

[Miles]

I'm just kinda curious. 'Any New England posters have ideas?

Only 1 poll (from UNH) showed her up double digits. Most everyone else had her up by only 4 or 5 before she won by 12.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Funnily, the exact same thing happened to Kelly Ayotte in 2010. She was leading by around 10 points in polls, and won by 20.

I guess this is what you get in a very elastic State like NH. Wild swings in both directions.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I really don't know why. Hell, most of us at the OFA office I interned at wrote off the only poll that had her above double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one expected an all female delegation. Lamontagne who placed 2nd in primary in 2010, was suppose to win.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

No one expected an all female delegation. Lamontagne who placed 2nd in primary in 2010, was suppose to win.

All the polls in the last week had Hassan winning.  I sure hated to see the GOP lose that one.  Here's to defeating her in 2014.

[Stranger in a strange land]

NH is hard to poll for some reason.

[emcee0]

No one expected an all female delegation. Lamontagne who placed 2nd in primary in 2010, was suppose to win.

  Here's to defeating her in 2014.

How about no.

[Skill and Chance]

NH is hard to poll for some reason.

I think  it's more about last minute swings with the independents.  It could be that the now liberal mountain areas are being underpolled, but they aren't a huge part of the state.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

No one expected an all female delegation. Lamontagne who placed 2nd in primary in 2010, was suppose to win.

All the polls in the last week had Hassan winning.  I sure hated to see the GOP lose that one.  Here's to defeating her in 2014.

Well there's another bagger that's probably running, so have fun with that.

[morgieb]

Was Hassan particularly well known before the election?

Plus NH is very elastic.

[Maxwell]

I'd argue Ovide Lamontage is very much the John Raese of New Hampshire, so that's probably it.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Was Hassan particularly well known before the election?

Plus NH is very elastic.

You're asking the wrong person. She was my state Senator (so I know her on a personal level to some degree), and I was working out of the town she lives in. Everyone knows her there, but from what I've heard, she wasn't very well-known around NH until after the primary (only around 10-20% of NH voters knew of her before the primary).

I'd argue Ovide Lamontage is very much the John Raese of New Hampshire, so that's probably it.

This and the elasticity were the biggest reasons. All of you hit the nail on the head.

[Miles]

I'd argue Ovide Lamontage is very much the John Raese of New Hampshire, so that's probably it.

This and the elasticity were the biggest reasons. All of you hit the nail on the head.

TBH, I was amazed that he was so competitive in the polls to begin with. I thought he was damaged goods going into 2012.

[Dan the Roman]

No one expected an all female delegation. Lamontagne who placed 2nd in primary in 2010, was suppose to win.

Shea-Porter was the only real surprise. I don't think anyone expected Hassan to lose after September or so. Win by much less perhaps, but short of Romney winning by more than 4-5 I don't think a Lamontagne win was on the menu.

[badgate]

My guess is by fall most NH voters were really tired of getting polled

[Tender Branson]

Because her opponent had a funny French name ...

French Bradley-effect.

[badgate]

Do you mean the Freedom Bradley-effect?

[Vosem]

Because NH likes their landslides and their women. Live free or die.

[TDAS04]

New Hampshire tends to be a politically unpredictable state.