In what year will Atlas first see a poster cross the 100,000 post mark?

[Mr. Morden]

?

BRTD's leading the way at ~67,000 posts or so right now.  When will he (or anyone else who might catch up to him) reach 100,000, if ever?

[Joe Biden 2020]

At the rate BRTD is going, I wouldn't be surprised if its toward the end of 2014 or early 2015.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If BRTD's current posting rate stays at its current level, it will have taken him 166 months to go from 0 to 100,000 posts. He has been on the forum for about 112 months. Therefore, he will cross the mark in 54 months, or 4.5 years. In other words, 2017.

[dead0man]

Never happen.

[Mr. Morden]

If BRTD's current posting rate stays at its current level, it will have taken him 166 months to go from 0 to 100,000 posts. He has been on the forum for about 112 months. Therefore, he will cross the mark in 54 months, or 4.5 years. In other words, 2017.

But has that posting rate been staying the same, speeding up, or slowing down?  It looks like it's slowed down slightly, as page 2401 to page 1201 in his posting history takes 49 months, but 1201 to 1 takes 57 months.

Are we sure that nothing is going to happen in his life that diminishes his Atlas time?  I'd say it's more likely to slow down further than speed up.  So 2018 seems like a safer bet than 2017.

In any case, he's definitely the most likely to reach 100,000 posts first.  Though it's less clear cut who would be the next to reach 100,000 posts after him.

[Torie]

If BRTD gets hitched, it's probably game over. Now that he is an active Christian (and of a certain age), that is more likely than heretofore no? But he has hung on and on and on, when most prolific posters slow down after they get enmeshed in college, or their careers or whatever it is when young adults start getting serious about life.  In my case ... well why start off the morning negatively?

[afleitch]

I don't know but they should immediately be banned for having no life.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've definitely been slowing down (I've dropped below 20 posts per day now), and really I was planning on slowing down even more because frankly this forum has become so boring now. The midterms are far off still, and there's nothing interesting to follow nationally, it's just standard partisan bickering junk. I've decided I should focus more on local stuff for the next few months, since that's where the interesting things are (budget and gay marriage, Minneapolis city council and mayoral elections.) This forum hasn't been at all interesting since November 2012.

[opebo]

I have a very strong feeling this didn't won't in fact happen.

[Mr. Morden]

If average lifetime posting rate were to continue indefinitely, then I think the next person after BRTD to reach 100,000 would be Kal.  Even though he's way behind Lewis and Al now, his posting rate is over 25 posts a day:

Kalwejt: 25.761 posts/day, so 3882 days from July 2, 2009 to reach 100,000 = Feb. 17, 2020
Lewis Trondheim: 16.668 posts/day, so 5995 days from Jan. 20, 2004 to reach 100,000 = June 19, 2020
Al: 15.281 posts/day, so 6544 days from Oct. 29, 2003 to reach 100,000 = Sept. 28, 2021

Though I think Kal's posting rate has slowed down significantly since the early days.  All of the above assumes that the posters' overall posting rate continues indefinitely, but ignores the fact that the posting rate for most longtime posters has slowed down (and may well slow down further).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interestingly, my posting rate has actually gone marginally up compared to a couple years ago. It used to be slightly under 15 (13 or 14 generall) and is now at 15.4. I must have posted a lot recently.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

My rate has declined dramatically.  For the betterment of all involved, I think.

[Smid]

Mine is 2.816 per day, and I note that I've passed the 5,000 mark, but I have no idea when that was. I have a feeling I noticed not long after passing 5,000, because I vaguely recall contemplating whether or not to mention it (I definitely had passed the threshold and lamenting the fact I hadn't noticed in time to post one of those "this is my x posts" post, but I don't think it was far passed it, although it might have been the 4,000 post mark I remember).

At one point, I was at about the 5 posts a day mark, but that was when I was active in Atlasia and making speeches, casting votes and doing all those sorts of things, which sort of artificially inflated my stats.

Given my current posting rate, and the fact it's slowed a bit in the past year or two, I suspect I'll pass the 10,000 post mark in about five years or more. I think in the past six months or so, I've sent more PMs than I have posts.

[bgwah]

Here is my posts/day by year:

2013: 1.66
2012: 4.08
2011: 7.44
2010: 4.47
2009: 4.58
2008: 3.97
2007: 2.28
2006: 1.77
2005: 2.99
2004: 1.80

Shows my level of involvement in Atlasia more than anything, perhaps. I was PPT in 2011 which required a lot of posts I wouldn't have made otherwise. I was also unemployed for a good chunk of the year. I just used my posting history to get these figures --- it's missing ~955 posts though. Just old deleted threads, I guess --- so the older years may be deflated a bit.

[morgieb]

BRTD will pass it in a few years.

It took someone like 4 years on another forum I go on for someone to pass 100,000 posts

[Bacon King]

Rochambeau will come back and he'll pass 100,000 posts within a week

[Lief 🗽]

Rochambeau will come back and he'll pass 100,000 posts within a week

Inshallah.

[Lambsbread]

I honestly think BRTD will cross 100k within 2 years and then leave the forum altogether

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I honestly think BRTD will cross 100k within 2 years and then leave the forum altogether

That'd require my posts per day rate for the next two years to be over 45.

[Lambsbread]

I honestly think BRTD will cross 100k within 2 years and then leave the forum altogether

That'd require my posts per day rate for the next two years to be over 45.

Hmmm...then maybe by 2016? Idk, it will probably happen during the 2016 election cycle

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Barfbag only registered a month ago, but is making 46 posts a day.  If he kept doing that indefinitely, he'd reach 100,000 in 2019. 

[Zanas]

*bump*

Barfbag only registered a month ago, but is making 46 posts a day.  If he kept doing that indefinitely, he'd reach 100,000 in 2019. 

Came here to post that. I think he can even do it by 2014.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I don't know but they should immediately be banned for having no life.

[sentinel]

If BRTD's current posting rate stays at its current level, it will have taken him 166 months to go from 0 to 100,000 posts. He has been on the forum for about 112 months. Therefore, he will cross the mark in 54 months, or 4.5 years. In other words, 2017.

I had the same math

[King]

Yeah, BRTD is 1596.5 days away from 100,000 at current pace.  His average will probably rise in 2014 and 2016, though, as it does for everyone.

My official prediction:
Remainder of 2013: 3000 posts
2014: 11000 posts
2015: 7000 posts
2016: 13000 posts

That will put him at 100,000 on October 17th, 2016.