EP elections 2014

[All Along The Watchtower]

lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another British poll, this time by YouGov:

Labour 32 Con 24 UKIP 23 LDem 10 Green 5

[Diouf]

Finland poll for YLE

Seats (compared to 2009):
National Coalition Party (KOK) EPP 4 (+1)
Centre Party (KESK) ALDE 3 (=)
The Finns Party (PS) EFD 2 (+1)
Social Democratic Party (SDP) S&D 2 (=)
Green League (VIHR) Greens 1 (-1)
Left Alliance (VAS) GUE-NGL 1 (+1)
Swedish People's Party (RKP) ALDE 0 (-1)
Christian Democrats (KD) EPP 0 (-1)
Other parties 0

[EPG]

In Midlands-North West (Ireland), the Fianna Fáil (ALDE) MEP, Pat the Cope Gallagher, is annoyed at having a running mate. Because he thinks it's very unlikely that they can win two out of four seats in their historic heartland. How times change.

Gallagher's running-mate is from Leinster: a senator, former TD, and was a candidate in the most recent by-election. As discussed before, Leinster is half of this constituency, whereas their incumbent is based far to the north-west.

The articles reckon McGuinness (FG, EPP) and Carthy (SF, GUE/NGL) will win a seat too. They also tip Harkin (Independent, ALDE), which seems optimistic to me: established independents don't always do well when their constituencies are redrawn to include lots of new voters, who cast their lower preferences for candidates from the same party or region.

In Northern Ireland, the Alliance (ALDE) candidate says she favour a united Ireland, and unionists jump all over her. She won't win the EP seat now, but it might help her beat the SDLP (S&D) in Belfast South in 2015...

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol

No he won't.

[YL]

In Northern Ireland, the Alliance (ALDE) candidate says she favour a united Ireland, and unionists jump all over her. She won't win the EP seat now, but it might help her beat the SDLP (S&D) in Belfast South in 2015...

I don't think she was ever likely to get enough first preference votes to have a chance of snatching the third seat, much as I'd like it if she did.

[EPG]

Nope, she wouldn't have. She will do worse now.

[Cassius]

Another British poll, this time by YouGov:

Labour 32 Con 24 UKIP 23 LDem 10 Green 5

So UKIP are slipping. They really do need to tune down the demagogic 'UKIP are going to cause a massive political earthquake and sweep to a victory of Biblical proportions' spiel they seem to have going on. If they keep things relatively low-profile, 23 percent will look good. If they carry on as they are now the election will be a damp squib (mind you, since they seem to thrive of maintaining a high-profile, I'm not sure what the best solution is).

[Diouf]

Wilke poll for Denmark

DF 24.4 % 3
Liberals 24.0 % 4 seats
Social Democrats 19.2 % 3
People's movement against the EU 9.0 % 1
Social Liberals 8.4 % 1
SF 6.7 % 1
Liberal Alliance 4.5 % 0
Conservatives 3.8 % 0

The Liberal Alliance front runner said yesterday that it was not decided yet whether they would run in an electoral alliance with Liberals+Conservatives, with DF or alone. As always, my seat assumptions are based on the latter possibility.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Profil poll by Unique Research (*):

26% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
20% FPÖ
13% NEOS
11% Greens
  3% Martin
  0% TS ("Das Team Stronach würde derzeit niemand wählen." )
  4% Others

42% of those polled say they will vote in the EP election.

http://www.profil.at/articles/1412/980/373663/umfrage-oevp-eu-wahl-platz

...

(*) Unique Research is a new pollster founded just a few weeks ago by Peter Hajek and Josef Kalina, a former SPÖ-member and speaker for the Chancellor, who is now active in media marketing and now polling.

Profil newspaper (and also Heute newspaper) have previously used Karmasin Motivforschung as their pollster. But Karmasin Motivforschung was owned by Sophie Karmasin, who was appointed federal minister for Families and Youth by the ÖVP. Which means both newspapers dumped their pollster, so that they do not appear "biased".

(It should be noted though that Karmasin polls never had any bias for the ÖVP before and Sophie Karmasin has meanwhile stepped down as CEO of the company and sold her stakes in the company to her husband who's the new CEO).

Also, just because Josef Kalina (a former SPÖ member) is now the founder of Unique Research it doesn't mean that the pollster is biased towards the SPÖ. In fact, their poll has the ÖVP leading and the SPÖ 3 points back.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/gemeinsame-marktforschung-von-kalina-und-hajek-99023

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:



(Note: The crosstabs on top of the image are for the federal elections poll)

The 2 charts below the crosstabs are the EU voting intentions. The first chart shows voting intentions among all people surveyed. The 2nd chart is only "likely voters", those who say they are either "certain" or "likely" to vote in the EU elections.

67% of those polled say they are either "certain" or "likely" to vote in the EU elections.

ÖVP-voters are the most likely to vote (88%), followed by SPÖ-voters (74%) and FPÖ-voters (just 62%). No data for Greens or NEOS-voters in the article.

Link

[Diouf]

A Danish poll of the front runners for each party. The score shows the average for each candidate when people's been asked how well they are doing from 0 (terrible) to 10 (fantastic). Above the green boxes it says "ikke kendt af" which means "not known by", so it tells you how many of the respondents that did not know the candidate.

Even though the scores are not that far apart, they might explain partly some of the difference between the EP polling and national polling. It is off course quite early for these kinds of polls as the election campaign hasn't officially started yet.

DF's candidate Morten Messerschmidt is the most well-known and the one with the highest score. In 2009, he received 284.500 personal votes, the second highest amount ever, and this year he is set to beat the record of former Social Democrat PM Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, who in 2004 received 407.966 personal votes. He is further helped by the fact that the People's Movement against the EU's candidate Rina Ronja Kari is the least known of the whole bunch, so he can perhaps gain more of the Eurosceptic left vote. The Movement is keeping up pretty well in the polls and will probably retain their seat, but with an averagely known candidate they could probably do a bit better considering Enhedslisten's success at the moment.

SF's candidate Margethe Auken finishes second in both score and recognition, which along with the increased focus on green issues in an EP election, could explain why SF polls far better in EP polls than in national polls. Auken can probably keep her seat in the EP.

I'm a bit surprised by by the low score for the Conservative front runner Bendt Bendtsen, who is the former Conservative leader, Minister for Economic and Business Affairs and Deputy PM. I would have thought that he could take some of the Liberal votes and retain his seat, but most of the recent polling has suggested otherwise.
That might partly be because the Liberal candidate Ulla Tørnes is so far doing a bit better than expected. If she can keep up a score like this through the campaign, then the Liberals could have a fair chance of keeping DF away from first place.

The Social Liberal Morten Helveg Petersen is doing fairly well and with the party's clear line as the pro-EU party, he should get a seat fairly comfortably.

The Social Democrat candidate Jeppe Kofod is an experienced, but fairly backbench MP, so he has some catching up to do compared with most of the other candidates.

I'm actually fairly surprised that only 45.9 % claims not to know the Liberal Alliance candidate. If asked who the Liberal Alliance front runner was, I bet the score would be extremely low. The Liberal Alliance has been below the national result in most EP polls, and if, as expected, they end up without an electoral alliance, it will be almost impossible to get elected. However, it their quite Eurosceptic anti-bureaucracy campaign succeeds, they could draw away significant amounts of votes from the other right-wing parties.

[EPG]

Gosh, we go to all this effort to learn the party letters, then some pollster uses R instead of B and so on.

Does that Austrian poll say that 50% of working-class voters will choose the FPÖ?

[Tender Branson]

Does that Austrian poll say that 50% of working-class voters will choose the FPÖ?

Yes, but these crosstabs are for the federal election, not the EU election.

And the poll sample is only 400, so any crosstab is basically useless because of the high margin of error.

...

Besides, the number is too high for the FPÖ: In the much bigger sampled SORA exit poll after the 2013 elections, the breakdown among "working class voters" was:

33% FPÖ
24% SPÖ
18% ÖVP
10% TS
  5% BZÖ
  5% Greens
  3% NEOS
  3% Others

As we have seen in other countries (France e.g.), the Far-Right/FPÖ has now overtaken the Social Democrats among blue-collar workers. But the FPÖ is unlikely to be near 50% with them.

Also: "blue collar workers" are a vanishing subset in the Austrian labour market. Most are now white-collar employees. The industry only accounts for 20-25% of the GDP/employment anymore.

[Niemeyerite]

El País poll (last poll a month ago):

PSOE: 29.0% (18) (+0.9)
PP: 25.7% (16)  (-0.6)
IU: 14.1% (9) (-0.4)
UPyD: 8.4% (5) (+0.3)
ERC: 4.5% (2)
CiU+PNV+CC: 4.0% (2)
C’s: 2.0% (1)
BNG+Bildu: 1.8% (1)
Compromís+EQUO: 1.2% (0)
VOX: 0.9% (0)
Podemos: 0.8% (0)

La Sexta poll (last poll taken 3/2/2014):

PP 32.6 (-0.7)
PSOE 30.9 (+0.9)
IU 13.2 (+0.5)
UPyD 9.2 (-0.2)

[Tender Branson]

MEP Hans-Peter Martin will announce at a press conference on Wednesday if he'll run again or not:

http://derstandard.at/1395362991550/Martin-will-Mittwoch-Entscheidung-ueber-Antritt-bekannt-geben

That means we only have to wait for the Team Stronach to announce if they run or not. They have until April 11 to file their candidacy.

I think Martin will run again, but not the Team Stronach. But it would be good if the TS were in the race too, because both Martin and TS would suck protest voters away from the FPÖ. If both of them running means that the FPÖ only gets 18% instead of 20-25%, I'm all for it.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-frontrunner Mölzer is in BIG trouble:



At a podium discussion on Feb. 18 with the title "How the project EU destroys Europe", Mölzer said:

"The EU is a dictatorship, the Third Reich was liberal and informal instead."

and in the debate about the future of Europe he said:

"... and it's a question about the work ethic what will eventually become of Europe: Either we are turning into a n conglomerate, total chaos, I say this now politically brutually incorrect. Where chaos is increasing, where mass immigration, where institutional chaos, where confused corporate interests ..."

http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2637994

Problem for him: Someone in the audience taped the discussion and sent the tape to the German "Süddeutsche Zeitung", which published it ...

Mölzer denies that he said this (he said he didn't say "n conglomerate" at that debate, but rather "necrophile conglomerate"). This is totally wrong, because in the link there's the audio file and he clearly said "n conglomerate".

Waiting for his fall now ... hopefully at least.

[Tender Branson]

English article about it:

Austrian politician compares EU with 3rd Reich

The leader of Austria's Jewish community called on a right-wing politician to drop his campaign for re-election to the European Parliament after he was quoted as likening the European Union to the Third Reich in Nazi Germany.

Andreas Moelzer, co-lead candidate for Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in the May EU election, made headlines when a German paper quoted him as calling the EU a dictatorship that made the Third Reich look "informal and liberal" by comparison.

The Third Reich "certainly did not have as many rules and regulations, commandments and bans," the Sueddeutsche Zeitung's magazine quoted him as telling a gathering in Vienna last month.

Jewish leader Oskar Deutsch said on Monday Moelzer's refusal to distance himself from the comment showed he was apparently unable to come to grips with the fact that proponents of extreme-right thought shared responsibility for Nazi crimes.

"Such people may not represent Austria in Europe, so Moelzer should draw the consequences and withdraw his candidacy," Deutsch said in a statement.

Moelzer did not immediately respond to an email and a message left on his mobile phone seeking comment.

In a statement, he dismissed suggestions that his comments sought in any way to play down Nazi crimes or the criminal nature of the Hitler regime, which he condemned. He said political rivals were trying to trump up allegations.

http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-News/Austrian-Jews-demand-far-right-politician-recant-EU-Third-Reich-comparison-346341

[Andrea]

Italy


EMG poll for La7

PD 32.4
FI 22.4
M5S 21.3
Lega 4.2
NCD 3.6
Brothes of Italy 2.9
Tsipras 2.9
UDC 2.4
Civic Choice 1.9

IXE' for Agorà (Rai 3 show)

PD 28.6
M5S 24.2
FI 22.7
Tsipras 6.1
Lega 4.3
NCD 3.6
Brothes of Italy 3.1
UDC 1.9
Civic Choice 1.0

So the big question mark is Tsipras score

[Zanas]

English article about it:

Austrian politician compares EU with 3rd Reich

The leader of Austria's Jewish community called on a right-wing politician to drop his campaign for re-election to the European Parliament after he was quoted as likening the European Union to the Third Reich in Nazi Germany.

Andreas Moelzer, co-lead candidate for Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in the May EU election, made headlines when a German paper quoted him as calling the EU a dictatorship that made the Third Reich look "informal and liberal" by comparison.

The Third Reich "certainly did not have as many rules and regulations, commandments and bans," the Sueddeutsche Zeitung's magazine quoted him as telling a gathering in Vienna last month.

Jewish leader Oskar Deutsch said on Monday Moelzer's refusal to distance himself from the comment showed he was apparently unable to come to grips with the fact that proponents of extreme-right thought shared responsibility for Nazi crimes.

"Such people may not represent Austria in Europe, so Moelzer should draw the consequences and withdraw his candidacy," Deutsch said in a statement.

Moelzer did not immediately respond to an email and a message left on his mobile phone seeking comment.

In a statement, he dismissed suggestions that his comments sought in any way to play down Nazi crimes or the criminal nature of the Hitler regime, which he condemned. He said political rivals were trying to trump up allegations.

http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-News/Austrian-Jews-demand-far-right-politician-recant-EU-Third-Reich-comparison-346341

As always, the problem with this kind of remarks in this kind of context from this kind of politician in this kind of election campaign, the worst part is that the comment will very probably a) go on completely unnoticed b) make those who notice it more, instead of less, willing to vote for him...

[Zanas]

Italy


EMG poll for La7

PD 32.4
FI 22.4
M5S 21.3
Lega 4.2
NCD 3.6
Brothes of Italy 2.9
Tsipras 2.9
UDC 2.4
Civic Choice 1.9

IXE' for Agorà (Rai 3 show)

PD 28.6
M5S 24.2
FI 22.7
Tsipras 6.1
Lega 4.3
NCD 3.6
Brothes of Italy 3.1
UDC 1.9
Civic Choice 1.0

So the big question mark is Tsipras score

I wouldn't be at all surprised with this outcome. Remember l'Arcobaleno. The left in Italy committed suicide a long time ago, and the PD murdered its corpse afterwards.

[Tender Branson]

English article about it:

Austrian politician compares EU with 3rd Reich

The leader of Austria's Jewish community called on a right-wing politician to drop his campaign for re-election to the European Parliament after he was quoted as likening the European Union to the Third Reich in Nazi Germany.

Andreas Moelzer, co-lead candidate for Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in the May EU election, made headlines when a German paper quoted him as calling the EU a dictatorship that made the Third Reich look "informal and liberal" by comparison.

The Third Reich "certainly did not have as many rules and regulations, commandments and bans," the Sueddeutsche Zeitung's magazine quoted him as telling a gathering in Vienna last month.

Jewish leader Oskar Deutsch said on Monday Moelzer's refusal to distance himself from the comment showed he was apparently unable to come to grips with the fact that proponents of extreme-right thought shared responsibility for Nazi crimes.

"Such people may not represent Austria in Europe, so Moelzer should draw the consequences and withdraw his candidacy," Deutsch said in a statement.

Moelzer did not immediately respond to an email and a message left on his mobile phone seeking comment.

In a statement, he dismissed suggestions that his comments sought in any way to play down Nazi crimes or the criminal nature of the Hitler regime, which he condemned. He said political rivals were trying to trump up allegations.

http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-News/Austrian-Jews-demand-far-right-politician-recant-EU-Third-Reich-comparison-346341

As always, the problem with this kind of remarks in this kind of context from this kind of politician in this kind of election campaign, the worst part is that the comment will very probably a) go on completely unnoticed b) make those who notice it more, instead of less, willing to vote for him...

Mölzer now says "he's sorry for the *n* comments" and that he's not ruling out stepping down as co-frontrunner for the FPÖ in the EP elections.

(He has not apologized so far for comparing the EU to the 3rd Reich ...)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2638076

[Middle-aged Europe]

But I thought the EU was the new Soviet Union?

And if the EU is really the new Third Reich, doesn't that mean that the FPÖ should be in favour of the EU now??

I'm confused!

[Tender Branson]

But I thought the EU was the new Soviet Union?

And if the EU is really the new Third Reich, doesn't that mean that the FPÖ should be in favour of the EU now??

I'm confused!

He didn't actually say that "the EU is the new Third Reich": He basically said that the Third Reich was better than the EU because the EU is a dictatorship now, whereas the Third Reich had a more liberal way of doing things and less bans than the EU has now ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

As always, the problem with this kind of remarks in this kind of context from this kind of politician in this kind of election campaign, the worst part is that the comment will very probably a) go on completely unnoticed b) make those who notice it more, instead of less, willing to vote for him...

No, the problem with this kind of remarks is that they are absolutely moronic, ridiculous, and offensive. Sorry dude but seriously, there is no excuse to make.