Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[smoltchanov]

RRH has a good preview of the elections tomorrow...I haven't really had time to put together anything substantive about the downballot races, so I'll defer to them!

Statewide races.
Legislative races.

Thanks, Miles! Not as detailed as in 2011 (to be honest), but still good...

[Miles]

^ Yeah, 2011's election preview was really great, this one is a bit more basic but still a good guide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the Dems have recovered from 2010 & 2014 mistakes about running away from their president. Thats why 2015 isnt turning out to be a normal offyear election. As it turns out 2018 may be a neutral year after all too.

[smoltchanov]

I think the Dems have recovered from 2010 & 2014 mistakes about running away from their president. Thats why 2015 isnt turning out to be a normal offyear election. As it turns out 2018 may be a neutral year after all too.

No. Edwards makes everything possible to distance himself from  Obama on almost all social issues, and presents himself as "normal southern pro-life church-going  (but caring) Democrat".  Only on less ideological issues like education (and some economical problems) their views are similar. And, as far as i know, both Edwards and Conway in Kentucky are, generally, pro-gun. None of them runs as "Obama's clone" - it's a suicide in Southern statewide race.

[Miles]

Changed the thread name to something cooler .

Polls close tomorrow at 9 ET, so this is where we'll liveblog results!

[Miles]

Vitter was involved in a car crash, but reportedly wasn't hurt.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Glad he wasn't hurt, so we can freely make jokes without being in bad taste.

Wasn't he already in a car crash? Namely his campaign?

[Miles]

^ This may turn out to be somewhat symbolic - like how Harry Reid had his eye injury a month or so after losing 9 seats in the midterm. 

[Zache]

Wow, a private investigator associated with Vitter was arrested after allegedly recording conversations of a sheriff at a cafe and fleeing once caught. The sheriff has confirmed they found a dossier of Jason Brad Berry, the blogger who posted those Ellis interviews, in the PI's vehicle. This is just incredible.

http://theadvocate.com/news/13785472-86/man-arrested-for-attempting-to

[Miles]

^ Cool - between this and bullying some outlets to drop the story, I wonder if Vitter realizes he's drawing more attention to it...

Not to mention that I'm sure the sheriffs, who play a key role in mobilizing votes, will be mad at Vitter.

[Kingpoleon]

Come on, Dardenne!

[The Other Castro]

This race has taken a hilarious turn.

[Miles]

Dardenne is out with a pretty damning video ripping Vitter over his spying scandal. He should be talking about this all day today on the media. It would be really hard to see him turn around and endorse Vitter after this, IMO.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I love how news of all these shenanigans are (likely) breaking too late to sink Vitter in the primary, but just in time to sink him in the runoff.

[/]

Why are all of the major political analysts still listing this as Likely R?

[Miles]

^ I suspect they're waiting until after the dust settles today to make any changes.

[windjammer]

What is your prediction Miles by the way?

[Miles]

What is your prediction Miles by the way?

I still think Vitter makes the runoff. Hopefully, if he makes it, he'll have an embarrassingly low level of support. I've heard that Dardenne has got momentum, but I'm afraid its probably too late.

I'd say something like:

Edwards - 39%
Vitter - 23%
Dardenne - 19%
Angelle - 17%

[/]

What is your prediction Miles by the way?

I still think Vitter makes the runoff. Hopefully, if he makes it, he'll have an embarrassingly low level of support. I've heard that Dardenne has got momentum, but I'm afraid its probably too late.

I'd say something like:

Edwards - 39%
Vitter - 23%
Dardenne - 19%
Angelle - 17%

Who are you endorsing in a Vitter-Edwards runoff?

[Miles]

^ Oh, Edwards for sure.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What is your prediction Miles by the way?

I still think Vitter makes the runoff. Hopefully, if he makes it, he'll have an embarrassingly low level of support. I've heard that Dardenne has got momentum, but I'm afraid its probably too late.

I'd say something like:

Edwards - 39%
Vitter - 23%
Dardenne - 19%
Angelle - 17%

What are the main differences between Dardenne and Angelle?

[Miles]

What is your prediction Miles by the way?

I still think Vitter makes the runoff. Hopefully, if he makes it, he'll have an embarrassingly low level of support. I've heard that Dardenne has got momentum, but I'm afraid its probably too late.

I'd say something like:

Edwards - 39%
Vitter - 23%
Dardenne - 19%
Angelle - 17%

What are the main differences between Dardenne and Angelle?

Angelle is the candidate who's closest politically to Jindal. Obviously Angelle has tried to downplay Jindal to the extent that he can, though. Angelle's ads in the campaign have been generally driven by social issues (Christian values, guns, etc.) and a "vote for me, I'm Cajun" message. He's also been a pretty vocal critic of the Obama administration on coastal drilling. Angelle is from Lafayette and has a natural base in Acadiana, which tends to be very parochial in statewide elections anyway. Dardenne is more your typical urban, business-oriented Republican. Dardenne represented Baton Rouge during his legislative career, and he's tended to higher education interests for much of his career. As LG, his main job was promoting tourism - a relatively apolitical job, which is part of why he's has a better rapport with non-Republican voters.

[/]

Is Vitter or Angelle more conservative?

P.S. Thanks for being the LA election encyclopedia, Miles

[Miles]

^ I'd still say Vitter. Vitter is just as socially conservative, but has often criticized the Jindal faction from the right on fiscal issues. 

Thanks!

[Türkisblau]

Edwards seems like such a good fit for you Miles, why support Dardenne over him?