Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Hat tip to Rogue.

I knew this would come any day, but the chatter at RRH is that Vitter will get in tomorrow.

[Miles]

And there it is:

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[Miles]

Wow, that was quick.

Vitter even has his first campaign video out.

[RogueBeaver]

Pre-canned obviously, but good timing. He also said this would be his last political office.

[Miles]

Down the ballot, Democrats seem to have landed a non-Some Dude SoS candidate:

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Tom Schedler is still favored, though to my knowledge, he hasn't come out with his plans for 2015.

[bedstuy]

And there it is:

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Cue the jokes about David Vitter throwing his diaper into the ring.

[Miles]

LSU Professor Robby Mann has some great analysis as he looks at 6 factors shaping the outcome for Vitter.

The most salient question seems to be who he'll attack and in what order. An R-on-R race would be harder for him, especially if Mayor Landrieu stays out. Democrats could obviously chose Dardenne otherwise.  His best strategy may be to attack Dardenne first.

There's also the Jindal factor. Vitter needs to keep his distance but can't antagonize Jindal too much; it could hurt him if Jindal actively campaigns for another Republican.

I'd be shocked if Jindal gets behind Dardenne considering their very cold relationship.

[Zioneer]

And there it is:

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Cue the jokes about David Vitter throwing his diaper into the ring.

Time to invest in Depends.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Vitter has this in the bag

[DINGO Joe]

And there it is:

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Cue the jokes about David Vitter throwing his diaper into the ring.

I am saddened that I didn't get to make this joke first.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Well, if Mitch Landrieu wants the governorship, now's the time.

[TX Conservative Dem]

When's the filing deadline in Louisiana?

[DINGO Joe]

Well, if Mitch Landrieu wants the governorship, now's the time.

Well, there is the mayoral election in about 10 days.  I'm biased but mayor is a much better job.

[bedstuy]

And there it is:

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Cue the jokes about David Vitter throwing his diaper into the ring.

I am saddened that I didn't get to make this joke first.

Technically, Harold Ickes made the joke first in reference to the youth of Thomas Dewey running for President in 1940.

[DINGO Joe]

And there it is:

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Cue the jokes about David Vitter throwing his diaper into the ring.

I am saddened that I didn't get to make this joke first.

Technically, Harold Ickes made the joke first in reference to the youth of Thomas Dewey running for President in 1940.

Somehow, I think Ickes joke had an entirely different context.

[DINGO Joe]

Vitter has this in the bag

In the diaper bag?

[Miles]

A very good response by Landrieu. She knocks Jindal and underscores the importance of seniority:

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John Bel Edwards probably puts it best though:

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Also of note, Jeff Landry is rumored to be mulling an AG run. While not an endorsement, Landry sounded very keen on supporting Vitter.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'm betting Mitch Landrieu waits until 2019 to run for the governorship

[Miles]

Vitter opens the campaign effort in the north. Last weekend, he was at the (northern) March for Life in Shreveport and is met with local leaders in Monroe.

Electorally, it would help him to have support here.

[Flake]

Would someone care to explain the David Vitter-Diaper joke?

[Miles]

Would someone care to explain the David Vitter-Diaper joke?

It went along with the prostitute scandal:

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[Miles]

A bit of irony here. There's usually a lot of Republicans, especially from Vitter's faction, complaining about the jungle primary. In an interview in the early '90s Edwin Edwards argued that it helped Republicans. Conservative Democrats could vote for Republican candidates without having to switch parties to vote in the Republican primary.

[Miles]

Planned Parenthood commissioned a poll for LA. They found Republicans leading 46-41 on the state legislative ballot.

56% identify as pro-life, 26% pro-choice. Still, overall, 59% say they don't support overturning Roe vs Wade.

[smoltchanov]

Planned Parenthood commissioned a poll for LA. They found Republicans leading 46-41 on the state legislative ballot.

56% identify as pro-life, 26% pro-choice. Still, overall, 59% say they don't support overturning Roe vs Wade.

Not bad for Louisiana, where a majority of Democrats is rather solidly pro-life... And not bad legislative numbers - Republicans control greater percentage of seats in Legislature now.

[Miles]

Not bad for Louisiana, where a majority of Democrats is rather solidly pro-life... And not bad legislative numbers - Republicans control greater percentage of seats in Legislature now.

I looked over the report after I posted it and saw that they actually oversampled Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Ergo, the Republicans' lead is likely a bit wider and the overall pro-life numbers are probably higher.