Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[smoltchanov]

How much more Republican should we expect the legislature to become after 2015?

Here is the current breakdown, as of this January (courtesy of Ballotpedia):

Louisiana Senate

Republicans: 26
Democrats: 13

Louisiana House

Republicans: 59
Democrats: 44
independents: 2

IMHO - Senate will not change much. Never's seat is the only one, that will surely flip. Most other are either majority black or, at least, have enough of them to be more or less reliable. Even Smith's and LaFleur's seats are not too endangered while they are running..

House - +5-7 Republican. Democrats still have "too much" seats in rapidly reddening Acadiana. Some switches among few remaining conservative Democrats (Danahay?) are also possible.

[TX Conservative Dem]

With the current situation of the Louisiana Democrats, it's going to be 15-20 years before they come back to power in the Pelican State again.

[smoltchanov]

With the current situation of the Louisiana Democrats, it's going to be 15-20 years before they come back to power in the Pelican State again.

More. 30-40. When Louisiana will become close to "minority-majority state" status

[TX Conservative Dem]

Wow. I guess the Louisiana Democrats might as well pack up their bags and move to Colorado

[smoltchanov]

Wow. I guess the Louisiana Democrats might as well pack up their bags and move to Colorado

Present day Louisiana Democrats are mostly Black. Plus - some (not too much) white liberals in New Orlean, Baton Rouge and Shreveport. Rural Louisiana Democrats more and more become Republicans (they were always socially and foreign policy conservative, and now - much less economically populist then their ancestors). In addition - social issues are, usually, trump economy now...

[TX Conservative Dem]

So I guess the rural white Dems are pissed off over the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act of 1965 and school desegregation in Louisiana

[Miles]

Wow. I guess the Louisiana Democrats might as well pack up their bags and move to Colorado

There's a reason LA has the lowest outward migration rate of any state; we'll stick around regardless of the political climate.

So I guess the rural white Dems are pissed off over the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act of 1965 and school desegregation in Louisiana

Um, no. The most rural white Democratic part of the state is Acadiana, which mostly stuck with LBJ:



The most important electoral factors there now are social and energy issues; Obama and the party in  general are seen as too left on both counts.

[Miles]

How much more Republican should we expect the legislature to become after 2015?

I haven't looked at the landscape of the House in detail yet, but here are a few Senate races that are worth watching:

Democrats should easily pickup Elbery Guillory's Senate seat (60% Obama).

Rick Ward, who just switched parties last year, represents SD17 a rural seat around the periphery of Baton Rouge; its 56%-ish Romney, but mildly D locally (57% Landrieu). His predecessor who was termed-out, Rob Marrionneaux, a Blue Dog, has reportedly been considering running again.

Democrats should likely lose Ben Never's Washington Parish-based SD12. The district is 65% Romney. Nevers is popular, but term limited. Local Ds have a decent bench, but start off at a disadvantage.

One of the biggest missed opportunities of 2011 was the swingy (54% McCain) Lake Charles seat. Freshman Ronnie Johns was unopposed.

Another race to watch is SD28, a swath of upper-Acadiana. Eric LeFleur (D) was considered vulnerable in this 64% McCain seat, but won by 16 points in 2011.

Republicans are about maxed out now in terms of the number of seats they can hold.

[smoltchanov]

Obviously agree about Guillory's seat (though it will, probably, be taken by socially conservative Democrat) and Nevers's. But not about Ward and Johns - IMHO, both will survive.. The "question mark" for me are LeFleur and Smit's seats- both districts are, at least, somewhat Republican on presidential level, but LeFleur and Smith are talented (and not liberal) politicians....

And yes, most of remaining rural Democratic seats are in Acadiana. If i understand correctly - this area wasn't especially racist (as North Louisiana mostly was), but - is very social conservative. So, it held longer then other rural areas, but going Republican now over "abortions and gays"....

[Miles]

Vitter has been in the news for his latest bill:

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[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

If Republicans had their way on everything, you'd need an ID card to go to the john.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Wow. I guess the Louisiana Democrats might as well pack up their bags and move to Colorado

There's a reason LA has the lowest outward migration rate of any state; we'll stick around regardless of the political climate.

So I guess the rural white Dems are pissed off over the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act of 1965 and school desegregation in Louisiana

Um, no. The most rural white Democratic part of the state is Acadiana, which mostly stuck with LBJ:



The most important electoral factors there now are social and energy issues; Obama and the party in  general are seen as too left on both counts.

On a slightly unrelated note, Miles, how would you explain the trends in central and northern Louisiana?  Are they much different demographically from Acadiana?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Is Guillory going to run for higher office down the road?

[IceSpear]

If Republicans had their way on everything, you'd need an ID card to go to the john.

Small govmint!!!

[Miles]

Is Guillory going to run for higher office down the road?

Yes.

[Miles]

On a slightly unrelated note, Miles, how would you explain the trends in central and northern Louisiana?  Are they much different demographically from Acadiana?

The trends as of 2012?

Generally, in north Louisiana, parishes that were Democratic (or at least more so than the state as whole) swung Demoocratic while the Republican parishes swung to Romney. I really don't think there was much more room for Obama to fall in Republican parishes, so they only swung slightly to Romney. Thus, most of the north trended D:



The big exception to this trend are most of the parishes around CD3 in Acadiana. This area has been trending R since the 1992. Even when Clinton stomped Dole by 12 points in CD7 (now CD3), the trend was against him:



As I said, energy has always been a big issue here, but social issues have become increasingly important with Catholics here. Cajuns have always been the swingy bloc in Louisiana, though, so Hillary could possibly break this trend. Still, I think its amazing how similar the 1996 and 2012 trend maps look!

There's also somewhat of a racial factor. Nationally, not just in LA, the more minority-heavy counties and districts were more likely to swing/trend to Obama. While the state is about 32% black, the average of the blue parishes (on the original map) is only 19%.

[Miles]

At Paul Dietzel's kickoff, both the LG candidates were there and I introduced myself!

Guillory:


Nungesser:


Full disclosure, when I talked to Guillory, I meant to say that I was considering a party switch, but it came out "like you, I switched parties." May have to clarify that down the line...

Both were great, but I'd like to volunteer for Nungesser.

[Miles]

Don't mess with Mitch:

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[TX Conservative Dem]

Which statewide office do you see Guillory running for and winning ?

[Miles]

Which statewide office do you see Guillory running for and winning ?

Guillory is running for LG.

[JacobNC]

Do you pretend to be a Republican when you go to those events?

[Miles]

Do you pretend to be a Republican when you go to those events?

Haha; I don't say that I'm a Democrat!

I have an uncle in the legislature (a Republican), so I always introduce myself as his nephew. That helps to break the ice.

[JacobNC]

Well, it looks like you're fitting in with them.  Mary Landrieu should hire you as a spy.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Anyone know what Jindal's approval ratings are ?

[Miles]

Anyone know what Jindal's approval ratings are ?

42/55 disapprove.