SC-1 special election - May 7th

[socaldem]

If ECB wins, there will be a tidy cluster of 3 Romney-voting districts in the Southern Atlantic seaboard that have Democratic representatives--Barrow, ECB, and McInyre.

This may be purely coincidental, but worth noting, I think. I really do think that in a neutral election year, ECB has a reasonable shot at reelection in 2014. We'll see what happens. Here's hoping that Bostic runs again and manages to win the GOP primary.

[Smash255]

Most of Platt's voters voted Romney!

I strongly suspect that many of them are Republicans who feel a civic obligation to vote, but do not want to vote for either Sanford or a Democrat, so will be voting for Platt as a safe protest vote instead of staying home.  There would be more of those safe protest votes if either the Libertarian or Constitution parties had put up a candidate.

Even if Platt's to the left of the Democrats?  And besides, why do so many people think Nader cost Gore the 2000 election if some Republican-leaning voters who didn't necessarily want Bush didn't vote for him?  I'm not arguing that they're right, I'm just asking you how that figures.
Anyway, I have no idea why a state with a large religious conservative population like South Carolina, in a party with a powerful religious conservative constituency, would nominate a womanizer like Sanford for Congress.  The worst part about it is that he'll lose to, of all people, Stephen Colbert's sister.

Math.  There were polls at the time that showed Nader's support breaking to Gore  50-20 over Bush with the other 30% staying home.  That would have given both N.H and Fla to Gore.

Now there is no way to tell how accurate that really is, but it makes sense and even if the gap wasn't quite that large its pretty safe to assume the voters would have favored Gore.  Even if a smaller gap put N.H out of reach for Gore, considering how insanely close Florida was it would have flipped.  Bush won by 537 votes, Nader received 97,488

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This may be purely coincidental, but worth noting, I think. I really do think that in a neutral election year, ECB has a reasonable shot at reelection in 2014. We'll see what happens. Here's hoping that Bostic runs again and manages to win the GOP primary.

Bostic may run again, but he won't win the primary.  He couldn't even beat Sanford in the runoff.  Nah, what happened here was he had enough support to get second in a very fractured special election primary.  If Sanford hadn't run, Bostic still would have lost the runoff, assuming he even made it.  If Sanford hadn't been running, I think the runoff would likely have been Grooms v. Turner. 

[socaldem]

This may be purely coincidental, but worth noting, I think. I really do think that in a neutral election year, ECB has a reasonable shot at reelection in 2014. We'll see what happens. Here's hoping that Bostic runs again and manages to win the GOP primary.

Bostic may run again, but he won't win the primary.  He couldn't even beat Sanford in the runoff.  Nah, what happened here was he had enough support to get second in a very fractured special election primary.  If Sanford hadn't run, Bostic still would have lost the runoff, assuming he even made it.  If Sanford hadn't been running, I think the runoff would likely have been Grooms v. Turner. 

I trust your local perspective. I suppose an entirely different wingnut/flawed candidate could come out of the woodwork somehow to muck things up for the GOP.

Any chance that Mrs. Sanford runs? Not the Argentinian one, of course.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This may be purely coincidental, but worth noting, I think. I really do think that in a neutral election year, ECB has a reasonable shot at reelection in 2014. We'll see what happens. Here's hoping that Bostic runs again and manages to win the GOP primary.

Bostic may run again, but he won't win the primary.  He couldn't even beat Sanford in the runoff.  Nah, what happened here was he had enough support to get second in a very fractured special election primary.  If Sanford hadn't run, Bostic still would have lost the runoff, assuming he even made it.  If Sanford hadn't been running, I think the runoff would likely have been Grooms v. Turner. 

I trust your local perspective. I suppose an entirely different wingnut/flawed candidate could come out of the woodwork somehow to muck things up for the GOP.

Any chance that Mrs. Sanford runs? Not the Argentinian one, of course.

Doubtful.  Certainly not any time soon as there will be plenty of Republicans blaming her for Mark's upcoming loss because she let details of their custody spat get into the public eye in a manner that seemed calculated to cause him the most harm without regard to the harm it might do the party.  If she'd let the details come out before the runoff or even better before the primary, there a good chance that Mark would not have ended up the nominee.

[Benj]

If ECB wins, there will be a tidy cluster of 3 Romney-voting districts in the Southern Atlantic seaboard that have Democratic representatives--Barrow, ECB, and McInyre.

This may be purely coincidental, but worth noting, I think. I really do think that in a neutral election year, ECB has a reasonable shot at reelection in 2014. We'll see what happens. Here's hoping that Bostic runs again and manages to win the GOP primary.

This district is very different from the other two. Much wealthier, much more urban and much whiter.

[Miles]

If ECB wins, there will be a tidy cluster of 3 Romney-voting districts in the Southern Atlantic seaboard that have Democratic representatives--Barrow, ECB, and McInyre.

This may be purely coincidental, but worth noting, I think. I really do think that in a neutral election year, ECB has a reasonable shot at reelection in 2014. We'll see what happens. Here's hoping that Bostic runs again and manages to win the GOP primary.

This district is very different from the other two. Much wealthier, much more urban and much whiter.

Actually, NC-07 is 72% white and SC-01 is 70%. The racially diverse areas, around Lumberton and Wilmington, were mostly cut out. GA-12 is noticeably lower, 61%.

[Benj]

Ah, must have been looking at pre-redistricting numbers for NC-07. Still a much poorer and more rural district, though.

[Miles]

Ah, must have been looking at pre-redistricting numbers for NC-07. Still a much poorer and more rural district, though.

Yeah, pre-redistricting, NC-07 was only 64% white. It lost Robeson County, which is actually plurality Native American.

[RogueBeaver]

Dear God: Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of Pelosi. Outdoors. Forget winning, I'm beginning to wonder if he's losing his marbles.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/24/mark-sanford-debates-poster/

[Mehmentum]

Dear God: Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of Pelosi. Outdoors. Forget winning, I'm beginning to wonder if he's losing his marbles.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/24/mark-sanford-debates-poster/

Wow, this race is just getting more and more hilarious.

[Zioneer]

Dear God: Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of Pelosi. Outdoors. Forget winning, I'm beginning to wonder if he's losing his marbles.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/24/mark-sanford-debates-poster/

If Colbert-Busch's opponent in 2014 is even half as crazy as he is, then I think Dems will keep the seat for a while.

[Morning in Atlas]

Mark Sanford is the best gift to the Democratic Party since Todd Akin.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Dear God: Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of Pelosi. Outdoors. Forget winning, I'm beginning to wonder if he's losing his marbles.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/24/mark-sanford-debates-poster/

Actually, I think it's a fairly reasonable campaign ploy.  It lets him call out his opponent for not agreeing to as many debates as he would like and it lets him paint her a Pelosi-type liberal. However, it's also the sort of campaign tactic used by those who are behind, and unless ECB commits a gaffe, it's not going to help him win.

[krazen1211]

Dear God: Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of Pelosi. Outdoors. Forget winning, I'm beginning to wonder if he's losing his marbles.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/24/mark-sanford-debates-poster/

Not a new strategy. Perhaps he's trying to get a gig at MSNBC.

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/10/30/virginia-house-krystal-balls-longshot-run-against-gop-rep-rob/

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Dear God: Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of Pelosi. Outdoors. Forget winning, I'm beginning to wonder if he's losing his marbles.

At least it wasn't an empty chair.

[Morning in Atlas]

Dear God: Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of Pelosi. Outdoors. Forget winning, I'm beginning to wonder if he's losing his marbles.

At least it wasn't an empty chair.

As far as I'm concerned this is on the level of debating an empty chair.

[RogueBeaver]

Then there's this phone stunt.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/04/25/mark_sanford_releases_the_phone_numbers_of_people_who_called_him_after_he.html

[Zioneer]

Then there's this phone stunt.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/04/25/mark_sanford_releases_the_phone_numbers_of_people_who_called_him_after_he.html

Good lord, is Sanford getting secretly paid by the Democrats to be as bad as possible or something? That's the only thing that would explain how awful his campaign is.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Ron Paul Endorses Mark Sanford

[Mehmentum]

Wow.

[Indy Texas]

Dear God: Sanford debated a cardboard cutout of Pelosi. Outdoors. Forget winning, I'm beginning to wonder if he's losing his marbles.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/24/mark-sanford-debates-poster/

Actually, I think it's a fairly reasonable campaign ploy.  It lets him call out his opponent for not agreeing to as many debates as he would like and it lets him paint her a Pelosi-type liberal. However, it's also the sort of campaign tactic used by those who are behind, and unless ECB commits a gaffe, it's not going to help him win.

Considering the kind of discourse Republicans care to engage in, debating a Pelosi made of straw would have been more appropriate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There will be a real debate Monday 7pm ET.  It'll be streamed at http://scetv.org/television/streaming/sanford-colbert-debate.cfm if anyone is interested.

[Keystone Phil]

"Nobody tells me what to do!" - Colbert Busch to Sanford during the debate.

[Keystone Phil]

Low blow question to Sanford: "You voted for the Defense of Marriage Act and to impeach President Clinton for having an extra marital affair. Would you vote those ways again?" Instead of citing that little thing called perjury, Sanford probably earned sympathy points by rhetorically asking "Do you think that President Clinton should be condemned for the rest of his life based on a mistake he made in his life?" Got some applause but he didn't answer the actual question.

Colbert Busch does the usual talking points on abortion yet doesn't explain why a tweet stating she was Pro Choice was deleted.