What's going on in Palm Beach County?

[old timey villain]

The northern gateway to the South Florida metro area has been on a slow but steady march to the right.

The county, known for its beaches, wealthy enclaves, and northeastern transplants, actually swung towards Gore in 2000, when it was the center of the recount effort. In 2004 it shifted a few points to the right. Bush lost the county by 21 points as opposed to 27 points four years earlier. Obama helped reverse the trend in 2008 by doing slightly better than Kerry, but it still heavily trended towards to the Republicans. Finally in 2012, Obama lost significant ground in the county. Romney only lost by 18 points, and it was the first time the GOP nominee got over 40% of the vote since 1988. Meanwhile, its neighbors, Broward and Miami-Dade, have become even more of a lock for Democrats.

So what's going on? Is it just the fact that Palm Beach is whiter, or are whites in Palm Beach swinging more to the GOP than they are in Broward? Perhaps it's indicative of a swing in the Jewish vote or the senior vote becoming more Republican.

The whole thing reminds me of a line from the HBO movie "Recount." In the movie, a lawyer for the Bush campaign mentions that only little old ladies are voting down in Palm Beach County, to which his colleague replies, "Yeah but most of those little old ladies are voting Democrat." Maybe that's not the case anymore. What do you guys think?

(this post turned out to be waaaay more of a thing than I expected it to. Sorry guys, kinda tipsy. Please discuss while I drink my next glass of two buck chuck. )

(This is my first roll in the hay with the oxford comma. I think I like it a lot)
 

[Donerail]

The Democratic Party in Palm Beach (one of the few counties where the county Dems are relevant_ is extremely fragmented between north and south county interests: the northern faction closer to liberal activists and organized labor, while the south is more of the inconsistent sometimes-aligned-with-development type. Because in south county the better left-wing vote has been against a D and for an R, it's been difficult for there to be a unified party, especially since some have interests in keeping power diffused and the party chaotic (which means the voices of sugar, developers, and others are larger). Some Democrats are known for supporting local Republicans over Democratic candidates of different factions.

More specifically, recently, there have been several scandals involving party leaders, State Attorney candidate Dave Aronberg has been targeted by the Palm Beach Post's editorial board (typically a left-wing group) over improper campaign issues, and wounds from primaries haven't yet healed, partly because of the party leader scandals. Local Republicans aren't well-organized, so the Democrats are lucky there, though Obama's decline in the Jewish vote and Republican growth in the western part of the county could be cause for concern.

Both Broward and Palm Beach have large Jewish populations as well, and Obama dropped among voters in both groups. It was simply felt more in Palm Beach, because: Broward has received a large amount of immigrants from the Caribbean/Latin America that Palm Beach simply has not received; the Broward Dems are well-organized relative to other counties and were able to work for turnout in a way the Palm Beach Dems couldn't; and the Jewish/Republican groups poured a lot more money into West Palm Beach than Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, so the number of attacks was far greater.

[Del Tachi]

A similar thing has happened in Volusia County, FL. 

It had voted Democratic since 1992 before switching to the GOP in 2012.  Kerry and Obama severely underperformed in Volusia and Palm Beach counties compared to their nationwide totals.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Democratic base in 2000 is dying off.

[Del Tachi]

The Democratic base in 2000 is dying off.

Basically, G.I./Silent Generation olds are being replaced by more conservative Boomer olds.

[Sol]

So, do people think that Palm Beach will flip, or that it will stay D?

[Donerail]

So, do people think that Palm Beach will flip, or that it will stay D?

It'll stay D, but the Dem vote share will continue to grow smaller and smaller; Ds need more votes out of Broward/Dade to get the same from the region.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Sam's post is dead on. I am working on a Democratic candidate for Mayor of Delray (two Democrats are running, keep in mind). Both of the candidates are pro development, moderate candidates for the most part. To the north, we have the Jeri Muoio/Lois Frankel/Alcee Hastings faction is dominant.

The party’s leader is anti Christian, for whatever its worth.

[Benj]

It's a correction from the 2000 results. The trend in 2012 was actually miniscule; it trended more R in 2004 and especially 2008. And it was not so different from 2012 in 1996 or 1992.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Rich white people, more or less.

[Siloch]

The county was solid Republican until 1992, we want it back

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

From Wikipedia(don't have 20 posts yet):

Presidential Election Results 1960-2012[12]
Year   Democratic   Republican
2012   58.21% 349,651   41.18% 247,398
2008   61.08% 361,271   38.22% 226,037
2004   60.35% 328,687   39.05% 212,688
2000   62.27% 269,754   35.31% 152,964
1996   58.06% 230,687   33.68% 133,811
1992   46.36% 187,869   34.63% 140,350
1988   44.07% 144,199   55.47% 181,495
1984   38.32% 116,091   61.67% 186,811
1980   36.37% 91,991   56.79% 143,639
1976   48.68% 96,705   49.45% 98,236
1972   27.18% 40,825   72.35% 108,670
1968   28.08% 32,837   53.19% 62,191
1964   46.91% 43,836   53.09% 49,614
1960   39.72% 29,871   60.28% 45,337


For what it's worth, the Dem percentage is still higher than the '96 one.  My guess is that Palm Beach County will still be quite Dem for a good amount of time.  It might also shift back the other way.  The overall range in the past 16 years has only been by about 4 points.  

[Smash255]

Trended hard Dem during the 90's, peaked in 2000 and has shifted a little GOP since.  However, the county is basically where it was during the mid 90's.

[old timey villain]

Trended hard Dem during the 90's, peaked in 2000 and has shifted a little GOP since.  However, the county is basically where it was during the mid 90's.

so what was so great about Gore in 2000? A mealy mouthed southerner suddenly won the hearts and minds of Jewish retirees?

[traininthedistance]

Trended hard Dem during the 90's, peaked in 2000 and has shifted a little GOP since.  However, the county is basically where it was during the mid 90's.

so what was so great about Gore in 2000? A mealy mouthed southerner suddenly won the hearts and minds of Jewish retirees?

[Smash255]

Trended hard Dem during the 90's, peaked in 2000 and has shifted a little GOP since.  However, the county is basically where it was during the mid 90's.

so what was so great about Gore in 2000? A mealy mouthed southerner suddenly won the hearts and minds of Jewish retirees?

The Lieberman factor perhaps as traininthedistance mentioned also the 9/11 factor.  If you look at Long Island and portions of Jersey, they trended rather hard Dem during the 90's maxing out in 2000, and shifted a bit Republican in 2004 (though still considerably more Democratic than they were prior to the shift).

So the areas where many of these voters moved from saw a similar movement it just might be more visible in Palm Beach County due to the older voters.

[Devils30]

Palm Beach really has little room to move further to the right. The county is only 60% white in the 2010 Census, down 10% from 2000. Something like only 45% of births in the county are white too.
If Hillary is the nominee she will get a bigger boost here than Rubio would. Would not be shocked one bit if PBC goes back to 61-39 D next election. The Dems haven't done great here relatively but the reality is the demographics don't point to an R resurgence. Of course if the Rs actually make gains with latinos this can change.