2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[Tender Branson]

No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.

Capriles CAN win this.

Assuming Maduro throws a few kids into the Orinoco river and Capriles is nearby, jumps in and rescues all of them.

[RogueBeaver]

He's in.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-venezuela-election-capriles-idUSBRE9290E220130310

[RogueBeaver]

Confirmed. This will be a nasty, brutish and short campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-21737742#TWEET654201

[RogueBeaver]

Maduro will have to deal with the security apparatus too, which isn't exactly monolithic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/world/americas/chavez-heir-faces-challenge-in-relations-with-the-military.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

[Antonio the Sixth]

This will be a nasty, brutish and short campaign.

...which is exactly what Venezuela doesn't need now. With Chavez' death, one would have hoped tensions would start to appease...

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles has already accused Maduro of "using Chavez's corpse as a campaign prop." High mark of positivity? Still firmly grounded in political reality, said the odds are so stacked against him that it'll be like being run through a meat grinder. Given how short time is he'll have to stick to the swingiest areas.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/henrique-capriles-says-he-will-run-again-as-venezuelan-opposition-candidate/2013/03/10/d58609e6-89e6-11e2-a88e-461ffa2e34e4_story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Maduro hits back, calling Capriles a fascist and hatemonger.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sigh...

[RogueBeaver]

I'm following the opposition blogger CaracasChronicles on Twitter. According to him, official exit studies showed 30% of Chavez voters were true believers. 25% are softer- they liked and admired him a lot, but didn't venerate him. And Capriles' raw aggression was deliberate, partly because he concluded that hope n'change didn't work last time.

http://caracaschronicles.com/2013/03/10/liveblogging-hcrs-annoucement/#more-25439

[Antonio the Sixth]

because he concluded that hope n'change didn't work last time.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. It did work, but simply wasn't enough at the time, considering Chavez' popularity. Capriles still did better than all his predecessors who insisted on demonizing Chavez.

[RogueBeaver]

He also talked a lot about how he's doing it for his supporters, most of whom are poor. Maduro is going to ram through a bill putting Chavez's name in the National Pantheon, which until now required a 25-year wait. Target date: April 14. CC suggests Capriles should support it, which is common sense. That way soft Chavistas won't get offended.

As for negative campaigning... read the blog, that's what his supporters want. I do agree that he should be more positive than negative, as does CC.

Here's the speech, for the Spanish-speakers here. FTR he actually does speak fluent English, but for obvious reasons never shows it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g00yV1TAo-g

[RogueBeaver]

The military has openly said that they will support Maduro and help in his campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

The last independent TV station, Globovision, has finally folded under government pressure and will be bought by a pro-government consortium. Sale will take effect post-election.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323826704578354811280619062.html

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles calls out Maduro for gay-baiting, "homophobia is fascism."

http://www.tubechop.com/watch/1015228

[Famous Mortimer]

I find the now or later debate in this thread bizarre. Why not try both times?

[RogueBeaver]

Moot now, he jumped in with both feet. So long as he does well, keeps the governorship and remains popular things should be fine. Lula lost 3 in a row before winning.

[Lurker]

Maduro now claims that the CIA plans to assasinate Capriles - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/17/us-venezuela-election-idUSBRE92G0AR20130317http://

The man is sounding more paranoid every  minute, wonder how his bizarre claims will affect the election. (though in fairness, the Chavistas have some reason to be paranoid )

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the heck? Why would the CIA assassinate Capriles? And why would Maduro warn about that?

[ag]

No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.

Capriles CAN win this.

Assuming Maduro throws a few kids into the Orinoco river and Capriles is nearby, jumps in and rescues all of them.

At least the former part isn't too far-fetched.

[RogueBeaver]

I know Venezuelan polls are worthless, but this one says Maduro leads by 15. Sounds plausible.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/7CF1H0qx7p42gmCYFJCVAJ/Venezuelas-Nicolas-Maduro-has-poll-lead-over-Henrique-Capri.html

Capriles vows to halt the Cuban petrosubsidy.

http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Capriles-apoya-estudiantes_0_155986451.html

[Zuza]

Why would the CIA assassinate Capriles?

Maybe Maduro thinks that USA is going to blame him and other Chavists for Capriles' assisination (and, of course, to disrupt election and to destabilize situation in Venezuela, but this aims can be achieved by Maduro's assassination too)?

And why would Maduro warn about that?

To show how fair and honest he is even with a bitter rival?

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's hilarious... but actually not unbelievable, considering the chavists' tendency for silly statements of all sorts.

[Zanas]

Also, I heard there had been lots of talk about Chavez dying of some kind of poisoning that induced his cancer... Are the chavist side still mentioning it ? Using it ?

[Tender Branson]

Maduro now has a lead of between 11% and 35%:

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Venezuela_de_2013#Encuestas_de_opini.C3.B3n

Most polls have him ahead by about 20.

[Tender Branson]

In other news, most recent surveys show that voters expect Maduro to win (more than 60% of voters think so, compared with 25-35% who say Capriles will win).

Also, what's more important:

The polls all say that voters approve of the Chavez-era and of his leadership, with support levels between 75 and 90% !!!

Turnout will probably be huge as well in 2 weeks.