If Puerto rico were a state

[jman123]

Since Puerto Ricans voted for statehood last November we need to consider the electoral implications it will have nationally if it joined the union.

  I will post in another subforum on this site a topic not related to elections on Puerto Rico.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In the current political configuration, I'd say likely-D at the very least.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Possibly the most Democratic state in the country. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans are the most reliably Democratic of all Hispanics.

[ag]

As D as Hawaii, probably. In a Republican landslide year a Republican might get over 40% of the vote, but even then 45% would be tough.

[Blackacre]

Possibly the most Democratic state in the country. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans are the most reliably Democratic of all Hispanics.

More than Hawaii??

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Possibly the most Democratic state in the country. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans are the most reliably Democratic of all Hispanics.

More than Hawaii??

Hawaii is a bit inflated right now thanks to a favorite son as president (remember, Bush came within 10% of winning in 2004). Expect it to deflate to ~65% D in 2016, assuming a close race.

[Blackacre]

Possibly the most Democratic state in the country. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans are the most reliably Democratic of all Hispanics.

More than Hawaii??

Hawaii is a bit inflated right now thanks to a favorite son as president (remember, Bush came within 10% of winning in 2004). Expect it to deflate to ~65% D in 2016, assuming a close race.

Bush coming within 10% of winning was because the state defers to incumbents a lot, almost like an anti-Indiana, though I do see your point

[old timey villain]

Possibly the most Democratic state in the country. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans are the most reliably Democratic of all Hispanics.

More than Hawaii??

Hawaii is a bit inflated right now thanks to a favorite son as president (remember, Bush came within 10% of winning in 2004). Expect it to deflate to ~65% D in 2016, assuming a close race.

Bush coming within 10% of winning was because the state defers to incumbents a lot, almost like an anti-Indiana, though I do see your point

Not sure what you mean about Indiana. It only had an anti incumbency streak in 2012. Bush, Clinton and Reagan performed better in Indiana during their reelection.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I remember seeing some polls where Obama demolished Romney.
I'll try to find it.  Puerto Ricans however are a lot more conservative than mainland Democrats, so there is a chance the Republicans could appeal to them if the RNC stops looking like a KKK meeting.

[Blackacre]

Possibly the most Democratic state in the country. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans are the most reliably Democratic of all Hispanics.

More than Hawaii??

Hawaii is a bit inflated right now thanks to a favorite son as president (remember, Bush came within 10% of winning in 2004). Expect it to deflate to ~65% D in 2016, assuming a close race.

Bush coming within 10% of winning was because the state defers to incumbents a lot, almost like an anti-Indiana, though I do see your point

Not sure what you mean about Indiana. It only had an anti incumbency streak in 2012. Bush, Clinton and Reagan performed better in Indiana during their reelection.

I was thinking 2008 and 2012, against Bush first, then against Obama and Lugar

[Asian Nazi]

It'd be even more Democratic than Hawaii, though not much more socially liberal than the nation as a whole.  I could see them electing some Republican Governors, though.

[traininthedistance]

Possibly the most Democratic state in the country. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans are the most reliably Democratic of all Hispanics.

The Puerto Ricans who live in Puerto Rico are significantly more conservative than those who live in large cities up north (in fact, is it possible that these are the most Democratic groups of Hispanics because they cluster more in large cities?), and the pro-statehood party is basically aligned with the Republicans.

They would still lean Dem because of economic issues and the Repubs' nativism, but it's rather closer than you might expect.

[Jackson]

Most members of the pro-statehood party are Democrats.

[Emperor Charles V]

In my TL, Puerto Rico becomes a state in 2017. Here is how it votes in elections.

2020: Rubio (R)
2024: Rubio (R)
2028: Newsom (D)
2032: Newsom (D)
2036: Sandlin (D)
2040: Boller (R)
2044: Lautner (D)
2048: DiSanto (D)
2052: Perry (D)
2056: Eastman (R)
2060: Eastman (R)
2064: Jones (D)
2068: Caldero (D)
2072: Caldero (D)
2076: Rothstein (D)

Summary: Lean Democratic bordering on Solid Democratic

[illegaloperation]

Puerto Ricans on the mainland voted more Democratic than do their Mexican counterparts, just to give you an idea.