2012: Obama vs (More Competent) Romney

[Siloch]

Obama faces Romney in the general election, with these changes:

1) Romney secures the GOP nomination in March - moving to the right, but without making any gaffes (no bet with Perry, no Etch-a-Sketch comment.)

2) Romney does not make the 47% comment.

3) Romney actually looks confident and presidential on his foreign trip, avoiding any major gaffes.

4) Romney chooses Rob Portman as his running mate in mid-August.

5) The attack on the consulate in Benghazi does not occur.

6) Romney performs as well in the 2nd and 3rd debates as he does in the 1st one.

7) No hurricane Sandy.

Does Romney win the popular vote, and does he win enough states to carry the EC (which would probably require a 5.3% swing in Colorado). Discuss with maps.

This would be Romney's best chance of victory.

Rep - 275
Dem - 263

[Siloch]

Romney would carry Virginia and Ohio before Minnesota...

Virginia is gone for the GOP and Obama was too strong with the autobailout.

[Siloch]

Virginia is not gone for the GOP yet. Just because it's going in the way of Maryland doesn't mean it is unwinnable.

Actually Virginia going the way of Maryland does mean it is unwinnable because Maryland is unwinnable, when Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William start voting with margins like Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore etc there is no way the GOP can win VA and those counties are trending Democratic but we will need to wait for 2016 to see, I don't think I will be proved wrong however.