Municipality and precinct-level data for NJ?

[a83192]

Nutley swung to Obama this time?  Nice.

Clear move to Obama in all the white lower-middle class/Italian towns in that area. Lyndhurst, North Arlington, Nutley, Carlstadt, Hasbrouck Heights, etc. all went McCain -> Obama.

Dis those whites that you mention voted for Obama or was it hispanics there?

[a83192]

Nutley swung to Obama this time?  Nice.

Clear move to Obama in all the white lower-middle class/Italian towns in that area. Lyndhurst, North Arlington, Nutley, Carlstadt, Hasbrouck Heights, etc. all went McCain -> Obama.

Nutley is definitely a notch or two richer than "lower middle-class".  Heck, that whole area is probably just straight-up middle class by the standards of the country at large, and Nutley is definitely the wealthiest of all those towns.

I do wonder to what extent the Hispanic percentage there has increased in the past several years; they have historically been very white but that may be changing.

Well, it's a class issue more than an income issue, but you get the point. Hasbrouck Heights is also pretty wealthy. Regardless, the area is clearly different in kind from other heavily white areas like northern Bergen/Passaic or far western Essex (which, among other things, are more monolithic in their wealth).

Also, while increases in the Hispanic population could explain things, all of these towns trended Republican in 2008. Some, like North Arlington, even swung towards McCain. It seems unlikely that the Hispanic population controlled trends in 2012 but not in 2008.

So the blue collar Italians in those towns favored Obama?