Illinois

[JRP1994]

In 2004, George Bush trounced John Kerry in Indiana by a larger margin than Kerry won Illinois by. Four years later, under very specific circumstances and in a Democratic wave year, Indiana flipped blue for the first time in 44 years.

The last time Illinois went Republican was in 1988. Before that, it voted Republican in the prior 5 elections. What circumstances would it take for a GOP upset win in Illinois, similar to Obama's win in Indiana?

[Obamanation]

45+ state GOP sweep

[Benj]

Maybe if the Republican nominee were from the Chicago suburbs. Mark Kirk is a good example.

[Antonio the Sixth]

45+ state GOP sweep

Yeah, it would require the republican to win by a 10+ margin. Not exactly impossible, but pretty much a longshot.

[Sopranos Republican]

45+ state GOP sweep

Yeah, kind of like how the GOP would need every state besides DC or Hawaii (even though DC technically isn't a state) to go red to win Vermont.

[JRP1994]

Keep in mind that Indiana's 2004 result was R+10. In 2012, Illinois' was D+7. I know Cook County makes Illinois a Democratic bastion, but I'm wondering if it could flip like Indiana did in 08, with the right GOP candidate who invests a lot in the state from the beginning.

[Obamanation]

Keep in mind that Indiana's 2004 result was R+10. In 2012, it was D+7. I know Cook County makes Illinois a Democratic bastion, but I'm wondering if it could flip like Indiana did in 08, with the right GOP candidate who invests a lot in the state from the beginning.

I think Illinois is just much bigger than Indiana so it makes it that much harder. Also, it seems unlikely that a Republican nominee on a national platform would do well enough in Cook County to build on his outstate margin.

[Franknburger]

Keep in mind that Indiana's 2004 result was R+10. In 2012, Illinois' was D+7. I know Cook County makes Illinois a Democratic bastion, but I'm wondering if it could flip like Indiana did in 08, with the right GOP candidate who invests a lot in the state from the beginning.

I think Indiana's 2008 swing was not only candidate-based, but also an issue vote (Irak war). You would probably need an equally polarising issue against the Dems, plus a regional candidate, to swing Illinois. Obamacare, while surely polarising, did not do the trick.
Nevertheless, if you discount 3% "favourite son" bonus from Obama's 2012 result, Illinois is in swing-state territory.

[Obamanation]

Keep in mind that Indiana's 2004 result was R+10. In 2012, Illinois' was D+7. I know Cook County makes Illinois a Democratic bastion, but I'm wondering if it could flip like Indiana did in 08, with the right GOP candidate who invests a lot in the state from the beginning.

I think Indiana's 2008 swing was not only candidate-based, but also an issue vote (Irak war). You would probably need an equally polarising issue against the Dems, plus a regional candidate, to swing Illinois. Obamacare, while surely polarising, did not do the trick.
Nevertheless, if you discount 3% "favourite son" bonus from Obama's 2012 result, Illinois is in swing-state territory.

61.85 - 3 = 58.85


Swing states aren't won with 59% of the vote...

[JRP1994]

That was the 2008 result. Obama's 2012 total was 57.60%. That -3 = 54.6%, which is roughly equivalent to his 2012 total in Oregon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That was the 2008 result. Obama's 2012 total was 57.60%. That -3 = 54.6%, which is roughly equivalent to his 2012 total in Oregon.

Oregon is definitely not a swing state.

[morgieb]

1. Chicago to split from Illinois - it's basically Indiana with a major city.
2. A Republican landslide.

[traininthedistance]

Keep in mind that Indiana's 2004 result was R+10. In 2012, Illinois' was D+7. I know Cook County makes Illinois a Democratic bastion, but I'm wondering if it could flip like Indiana did in 08, with the right GOP candidate who invests a lot in the state from the beginning.

I think Indiana's 2008 swing was not only candidate-based, but also an issue vote (Irak war). You would probably need an equally polarising issue against the Dems, plus a regional candidate, to swing Illinois. Obamacare, while surely polarising, did not do the trick.
Nevertheless, if you discount 3% "favourite son" bonus from Obama's 2012 result, Illinois is in swing-state territory.

61.85 - 3 = 58.85


Swing states aren't won with 59% of the vote...

Also, I don't think Obama really got the "favorite son" bonus in 2012- his margin of victory was eight points lower in 2012 than in 2008, which is consistent with uniform national swing plus the favorite son bonus (which definitely did exist in 2008) evaporating.

[Asian Nazi]

Yeah, favorite son bonuses go away typically during re-election attempts.  Obama is no exception here.

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

In 2004, George Bush trounced John Kerry in Indiana by a larger margin than Kerry won Illinois by. Four years later, under very specific circumstances and in a Democratic wave year, Indiana flipped blue for the first time in 44 years.

The last time Illinois went Republican was in 1988. Before that, it voted Republican in the prior 5 elections. What circumstances would it take for a GOP upset win in Illinois, similar to Obama's win in Indiana?

Probably the same circumstances that helped Obama take Indiana in '08 -- winning the national popular vote by a big margin.

The last Republican to win the popular vote by a margin similar to Obama's was Bush in '88 -- which was also the last time the GOP won Illinois.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

Dems have Chicago + Collar counties + Driftless area + St. Louis suburbs

The GOP would have to do well in the Collar counties and the IL/IA border to have a shot.

Dems can win with just 3 or 4 counties in IL (see 2010 gubernatorial election).

[Indy Texas]

Republicans love to complain about how the only reason Democrats always win the state is Chicago (as if the fact that most Illinoisians - ? - live in the Chicagoland area is irrelevant and they aren't "real" voters in the way the 'Murricans downstate are).

1988 was the last time Illinois was carried by a Republican in no small part because George H. W. Bush was probably the last GOP candidate who had enough appeal to the moderate voters in places like the Chicago suburbs to make a difference. People in major cities were probably more open to voting for the GOP at that time because "law and order" issues still figured into the politics of places like Chicago and NYC and LA.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The problem is social issues.  The soccer mom-types in the Chicago suburbs deserted the GOP over social issues when Clinton came along, and they never looked   Republicans need to downplay social issues to get some of their votes back. Of course, it wouldn't really be an upset then, since that would completely change the dynamics in Illinois, possibly enough to return it to its swing state status prior to 1992. Before then, Illinois voted for the GOP candidate in the previous 6 elections, not 5.  The main reason the suburbs were so much more Republican then than they are now is that they were repelled by the infighting in Chicago (like the elder Mayor Daley), and they were afraid that Chicago would force them to pay higher taxes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk won but dold was a kirk clone and lost to schneider. Basically there needs to be an eonomic downturm like in 2008 under a dem admin.

[sg0508]

Similar to NJ, WA, OR, PA, MI, CA, etc, etc, etc once the GOP lost the well-educated, middle class suburban vote, they lost IL.

Win the suburbs back and then IL somewhat becomes in play again. 

[Mr. Illini]

To those saying that all the GOP needs to do is win back the collar counties, you are sorely mistaken. In 2010, the Tea Party year, Brady swept the collar counties, but still lost. It was close, but he couldn't get the victory despite effectively winning everything but Cook County. It takes a lot to get this state to flip.

[TDAS04]

Thanks to Chicago, Illinois is (politically) a Northeastern State located in the Midwest.  Its voting patterns are more Northeastern than Pennsylvania.

[Mr. Illini]

I did some number crunching, and not surprisingly, without Chicago, Illinois is basically Indiana. Usually red, but would have gone for Obama in 2008.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Illinois may be safe D in presidential elections, but as Vosem has said, Republicans are often competitive in statewide contests.  This is evidenced by the elections of Judy Baar Topinka, Dan Rutherford, and Mark Kirk in 2010, as well as the near-election of Bill Brady.  That being said, it would probably take a more moderate Republican and a big sweep for the GOP for it to go for a Republican, but it wouldn't be an upset because in those circumstances such an outcome would be a distinct possibility.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

dold was a kirk clone

lol no