2016: Rise of the Grassroots

[PPT Spiral]

Iowa Caucuses

Republican

Rand Paul - 24%
Rick Santorum - 19%
Chris Christie - 17%
Bobby Jindal - 16%
Marco Rubio - 11%
Bob McDonnell - 8%
Sam Brownback - 5%

Democratic

Brian Schweitzer - 22%
Elizabeth Warren - 21%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 18%
Mark Warner - 17%
Andrew Cuomo - 10%
Amy Klobuchar - 7%
John Hickenlooper - 3%
Martin O'Malley - 2%

IOWA 2016: PAUL WINS, SCHWEITZER UPSETS

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky won the first contest for the Republican nomination tonight, in a victory that was expected by most political analysts thanks to a strong ground game and devoted supporters. Coming up second was former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, the winner of the 2012 caucus, whose campaign was fueled by social conservative activists turning out to vote.

In a stunning upset, former Governor Brian Schweitzer managed to squeak past Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts to be the Democratic victor of Iowa this evening. Schweitzer, who had attracted media attention in recent weeks due to large rally crowds, seemed to have picked up the majority of undecided voters after an aggressive barnstorming session through the state in the final days of campaigning.


BROWNBACK DROPS OUT, ENDORSES SANTORUM

Speaking to a group of supporters this evening, Governor Sam Brownback of Kansas announced that he is dropping out of the presidential contest following a poor showing in the Iowa caucus and endorsed former Senator Rick Santorum to be the Republican nominee.

HICKENLOOPER DROPS OUT, ENDORSES SCHWEITZER

At a press conference, Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado ended his bid for president after a poor showing in the Iowa caucus and lent his endorsement to Governor Brian Schweitzer, the victor of the caucus.

[David St. Hubbins II]

Yeah Schweitzer!

[MadmanMotley]

Go Rand Go!

[dudeabides]

Chris Christie for President - A Reformer with Results

[PPT Spiral]

New Hampshire Primaries

Republican

Chris Christie - 32%
Rand Paul - 31%
Bobby Jindal - 15%
Marco Rubio - 12%
Rick Santorum - 8%
Bob McDonnell - 2%

Democratic

Elizabeth Warren - 23%
Brian Schweitzer - 21%
Andrew Cuomo - 20%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 15%
Mark Warner - 9%
Amy Klobuchar - 7%
Martin O'Malley - 5%

NEW HAMPSHIRE 2016: CHRISTIE, WARREN WIN

Tonight in the state of New Hampshire, voters gave Governor Christie of New Jersey and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts their first wins in the primaries. In the Republican primary, Christie achieved a narrow victory over Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who surged in the final days of campaigning in the state. On the Democratic side, a surging Brian Schweitzer nabbed second place over Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York in another close race with Warren as the ultimate victor.

MCDONNELL DROPS OUT, ENDORSES PAUL

Former Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia, following poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, formally ended his campaign today and endorsed Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, stating that "only he can move the Republican Party and the country in a better path."

O'MALLEY DROPS OUT, ENDORSES WARREN

Former Govenor Martin O'Malley of Maryland announced that he is dropping out of the Democratic primaries, citing his low numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire, and also endorsed Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts for the nomination as "the only true progressive left."

CANDIDATES CHANGING STRATEGIES FOR PRIMARIES

Looking ahead, the candidates from both parties are charting their paths to victory in future primaries. On the Republican side, Senator Rand Paul is spending heavily on TV ads and making appearances in South Carolina and Nevada, while Governor Chris Christie is focusing on states holding primaries in February such as Missouri and Michigan. Both former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania are spending virtually all of their resources in South Carolina, suggesting that they may drop out without a victory there. The same is true with Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who is campaigning heavily in his home state following falling poll numbers across the board.

With the Democrats, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and former Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana are capitalizing on their respective victories. Warren is mainly spending time in Florida and South Carolina, while Schweitzer is building up his base of support in Nevada and South Carolina at the moment. Governor Andrew Cuomo is abandoning his plans in South Carolina in favor of going all out in Florida, whereas Senator Mark Warner of Virginia will be transferring all of his resources into attaining a victory in South Carolina. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York is spending time in Michigan and South Carolina, and Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is devoting all resources in her home state in hopes of a breakout victory.

National and Statewide Polls - January 13

National - Republican
Rand Paul - 26%
Chris Christie - 24%
Bobby Jindal - 16%
Rick Santorum - 13%
Marco Rubio - 12%
Undecided - 9%

South Carolina - Republican
Rand Paul - 23%
Chris Christie - 17%
Bobby Jindal - 16%
Rick Santorum  - 16%
Marco Rubio - 14%
Undecided - 14%

National - Democratic
Elizabeth Warren - 23%
Brian Schweitzer - 20%
Andrew Cuomo - 18%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 17%
Mark Warner - 11%
Amy Klobuchar - 5%
Undecided - 6%

South Carolina - Democratic
Elizabeth Warren - 20%
Mark Warner - 19%
Brian Schweitzer - 18%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 16%
Andrew Cuomo - 14%
Amy Klobuchar - 4%
Undecided - 9%

[Maxwell]

I like this, but McDonnell would probably endorse Rubio or Christie, not Paul.

[PPT Spiral]

I like this, but McDonnell would probably endorse Rubio or Christie, not Paul.

My line of thinking was that he wouldn't endorse someone like Rubio now because it seems like his ship is sinking, but you may be right on Christie. I'll be more careful with endorsements in the future.

[badgate]

I get the impression that McDonnell would endorse the establishment pick, or the establishment dark horse if he's pissed off.

[David St. Hubbins II]

Would Gillibrand still be polling this solidly in SC after failing to break the top 2 in both IA and NH? Similar issue with Warner's strength in the state (although if he'd been previously leading in SC then it would be reasonable)

Great TL otherwise!

I'm hoping Schweitzer and Paul and take SC/NV while Christie and Warren get FL, as that would make for the most competitive (and hence entertaining!) ongoing primaries...

[PPT Spiral]

Would Gillibrand still be polling this solidly in SC after failing to break the top 2 in both IA and NH? Similar issue with Warner's strength in the state (although if he'd been previously leading in SC then it would be reasonable)

Great TL otherwise!

I'm hoping Schweitzer and Paul and take SC/NV while Christie and Warren get FL, as that would make for the most competitive (and hence entertaining!) ongoing primaries...

Gillibrand in this scenario has been spending a lot of resources in South Carolina months ahead of the primary. Remember that she had gotten pretty solid results in the first two contests, and for now she's still competitive in the crop of candidates left, so her numbers shouldn't be surprising. As for Warner, he had led SC for a while pretty decisively, but now he's threatened by other candidates.

I appreciate the comments in any case. Stay tuned!

[PPT Spiral]

South Carolina Primaries

Republican

Rand Paul - 28%
Rick Santorum - 20%
Chris Christie - 19%
Bobby Jindal - 18%
Marco Rubio - 15%

Democratic

Brian Schweitzer - 23%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 21%
Mark Warner - 20%
Elizabeth Warren - 20%
Andrew Cuomo - 12%
Amy Klobuchar - 4%

SOUTH CAROLINA 2016: PAUL, SCHWEITZER WIN

Tonight, the presidential contenders from both sides finished off their grand rumble in South Carolina, granting both Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Governor Brian Schweitzer their second win of the primary season. Paul's victory was expected by most analysts, though Scheitzer won in what turned out to be a much closer race than expected, with Senator Kirsten Gillibrand defying predictions and placing second overall.

JINDAL DROPS OUT

Former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana announced he is ending his presidential campaign following a loss in South Carolina, which he had invested most of his remaining resources in. Jindal declined to offer an endorsement to any of the remaining candidates, instead saying that "I'll support whoever the nominee is."

SANTORUM: I'M STAYING IN

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who placed second in the Republican South Carolina primary earlier, announced that he will remain in the race despite spending much of his finances traveling around the state and airing TV ads and ultimately losing to Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. Santorum said that he's "encouraged" by another second-place showing, and that this proves to him that "this country doesn't want another establishment moderate to win." Santorum will be focusing on the early February primaries of Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri, states which he won before in 2012.

WARNER DROPS OUT, ENDORSES SCHWEITZER

Senator Mark Warner of Virginia ended his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination today and announced that he is endorsing Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana for the nod, saying that Schweitzer "knows how to deal with the problems affecting everyday Americans." Warner dropped out following a loss in South Carolina, a state in which he led the polls at one point.

Nationwide and Statewide Polls - January 22

National - Republican
Rand Paul - 30%
Chris Christie - 28%
Rick Santorum - 20%
Marco Rubio - 15%
Undecided - 7%

Florida - Republican
Marco Rubio - 28%
Chris Christie - 22%
Rand Paul - 20%
Rick Santorum - 17%
Undecided - 13%

National - Democratic
Brian Schweitzer - 29%
Elizabeth Warren - 25%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 20%
Andrew Cuomo - 14%
Amy Klobuchar - 5%
Undecided - 7%

Florida - Democratic
Andrew Cuomo - 25%
Elizabeth Warren - 25%
Brian Schweitzer - 22%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 18%
Amy Klobuchar - 4%
Undecided - 6%

[PolitiJunkie]

Is there any hope left for Senator Gillibrand in this timeline? In real life, she and Biden are my two favorites for the 2016 Democratic nomination.

[PPT Spiral]

Florida Primaries

Republican

Chris Christie - 29%
Rand Paul - 26%
Marco Rubio - 25%
Rick Santorum - 20%

Democratic

Elizabeth Warren - 26%
Brian Schweitzer - 25%
Andrew Cuomo - 24%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 20%
Amy Klobuchar - 5%

RUBIO DROPS OUT

After failing to win his home state primary, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida ended his presidential ambitions today at a press conference. Rubio will be focusing on his Senate re-election effort for this year, and when asked about an endorsement of another candidate, he stated that "I'll support whoever the nominee will ultimately be."

CUOMO DROPS OUT

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York ended his presidential campaign after failing to win in Florida, where he hoped to gain some momentum from a victory. Cuomo declined to give out an endorsement, though he said that he "will continue to monitor how things develop."

GILLIBRAND DROPS OUT, ENDORSES WARREN

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, after failing to ever win a state so far in the primary cycle, decided to leave the race and endorse Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts for the Democratic nomination. "I know Elizabeth well, and she'll do a fantastic job as president," Gillibrand stated about Warren.

KLOBUCHAR DROPS OUT, ENDORSES WARREN

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who had been banking on a home state victory coming up, put a close to her campaign due to low national numbers and a difficult path towards winning the Minnesota primary. In the press conference, Klobuchar announced her endorsement of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts to be the Democratic nominee.

Nationwide and Statewide Polls - February 1

National - Republican
Rand Paul - 37%
Chris Christie - 31%
Rick Santorum - 25%
Undecided - 7%

Nevada - Republican
Rand Paul - 47%
Chris Christie - 25%
Rick Santorum - 20%
Undecided - 8%

National - Democratic
Elizabeth Warren - 50%
Brian Schweitzer - 42%
Undecided - 8%

Nevada - Democratic
Brian Schweitzer - 53%
Elizabeth Warren - 39%
Undecided - 8%