2016: Rise of the Grassroots

[PPT Spiral]

This is my first time trying one of these things. If there's enough positive reception for this, I'll try to continue it out to the end of the election.


The year is 2015. Inching nearer to the end of Barack Obama's presidency, and with another intense election cycle on the way, all attention is pointed towards who the successor to Obama in the Oval Office shall be. The economy of the nation has continued to flounder up to this point, with unemployment numbers still stubbornly high and the prices of goods gradually rising, leaving Obama with mediocre approval ratings and an incredibly polarized public. For both of the major political parties, inner tensions have been given a good amount of media exposure. A vocal section of Democratic activists frustrated with Obama's policies on foreign affairs and civil liberties are clamoring for a candidate who would represent a stark reversal away from this course. Meanwhile, the Republican Party is fighting a civil war within itself between establishment figures and reformers seeking to integrate more libertarian elements into the platform.

In early January, with no candidates currently running in either party, many potential contenders are holding off for now, awaiting the decisions of others said to be interested. Will a Democrat such as Hillary Clinton enter the race and clear the field for her nomination? Will a Republican such as Jeb Bush come in and create difficulty for an insurgent campaign to come into fruition? Stay tuned for future developments.

[Napoleon]

I'm looking forward to this. Count me among the disappointed Democratic activists!

[tmthforu94]

This looks very promising! Welcome to the forum.

[PPT Spiral]

January 9

BREAKING: Hillary Clinton to not run in 2016

In a press conference earlier this morning, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters that she would not run for the office of the presidency in the 2016 election. In what seems like a Shermanesque statement, Clinton said, "Though I'm flattered by all of the positive reception, I will not in any way, shape, or form be seeking the nomination for president. I will continue to do work outside of the political realm helping charities and encouraging basic human rights around the world."

Clinton's announcement will be seen as a sign of relief for many 2016 hopefuls on the Democratic side. Vice President Joe Biden has actively been interested in running, with Clinton being his main roadblock for the path to the nomination. In addition, some of the other most frequently discussed potential candidates such as Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York and Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland are expected to jump in very soon following the announcement.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Oh, thank goodness. Looks great, keep it up!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This looks very promising! Welcome to the forum.

[PPT Spiral]

January 10

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination on FOX News Sunday with Chris Wallace. "I'm running because the United States must return to constitutional principles if we are to ever rein in the power of big government and restore liberty to the people," Paul stated while speaking with the host Chris Wallace. The son of former Texas Congressman Ron Paul has built himself up to be the leader of the Tea Party faction of the Republican Party and is bound to do better than his father in the primaries.

January 11

Vice President Joe Biden earlier made a statement that he will be running for president while doing an interview for MSNBC. "Yes, I will be running," Biden said when confronted with a question about his intentions following Hillary Clinton passing up a potential candidacy. The vice president is the immediate frontrunner for the Democratic nomination with Clinton out of the picture, but may face strong challenges from other contenders down the line.

January 13

Outgoing Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley in a speech in Baltimore announced that he will be jumping in the ring for his party's nomination. "We need a strong leader in office who can stand up for the ideals of the Democratic Party, and I'm just the one to do that," O'Malley stated. The governor has made inroads with the party base following strong pushes towards issues such as gun control and the death penalty.

January 16

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced in Newark earlier that he will be running for president in 2016. "I'm here to shake up the status quo down there in Washington and show them who's boss after years of ignoring the American people," Christie said in one point of his speech. Christie, a beloved figure in the state of New Jersey, is highly popular with moderates and even Democrats, but the conservative base that makes up the core of the party is very skeptical towards him and could pose a threat to his candidacy.

January 17

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum on Meet the Press told the host David Gregory about his desire to run this cycle. "Yes, absolutely, David, I'm running," Santorum stated, "because this nation's morals are disintegrating before our very eyes with liberals like Obama running this country." Santorum, who finished second behind Mitt Romney in the 2012 primaries, has built up a network of supporters since the last election that will ensure continued success with the social conservatives in the Republican Party.

January 18

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo while doing an interview on The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer told CNN about his plans to run for the presidency. "My campaign officially starts today, and this campaign will be about defining true leadership in office, and who has the results to show that," Cuomo said. The governor has the ability to raise large amounts of money for his pursuits with a well-connected infrastructure of donors, and may be the primary competitor to Vice President Biden over the course of the campaign.

[Goodwin]

Yes this looks intriguing, welcome to forum fellow newcomer

Christie vs Cuomo would be an interesting election.

[badgate]

Is this a pen account?

[PPT Spiral]

Is this a pen account?

If you mean that I'm an alt of somebody here, that's not the case. I've lurked here a little in the past before creating an account a few months ago, but it wasn't until a week ago or so that I started posting anything.

[badgate]

Is this a pen account?

If you mean that I'm an alt of somebody here, that's not the case. I've lurked here a little in the past before creating an account a few months ago, but it wasn't until a week ago or so that I started posting anything.

Yes Just wondering. If I were to start a TL I'd consider making a pen account in case it was terrible haha

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This is really good, keep up the awesome work

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

This is really good, keep up the awesome work

Excellent start. Keep it up and welcome to the forum.

[PPT Spiral]

January 21

Florida Senator Marco Rubio announced in a press conference that he will indeed be running for president. "I intend to run, so that we can reverse the course of this country away from big government and go back to prosperity," Rubio said. Being courted for years by party insiders and having high media exposure, the senator starts off as a frontrunner for his party's nomination, but could struggle with fresh memories of his involvement in the failed bipartisan bill on immigration reform back in 2013.

January 23

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal in a Baton Rouge rally announced his intention to win the Republican nomination earlier. "For far too long the Republican Party has not been treating the American people like adults, so I'm here to change that," Jindal said in the high point of his speech. The governor has gotten much media coverage for his words of reform following Mitt Romney's loss in the 2012 election, but with a state approval rating of only in the low 30s less than a year before leaving the governorship, Jindal may first have some work to do to establish himself as a national leader.

January 26

Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer while doing an interview on Hardball with Chris Matthews formally announced his 2016 campaign for president. "Yes, I'm in it, Chris," said Schweitzer. "President Obama, while doing many good things, has been concerning for me on matters like guns and drones, so I think we need a Democrat who can counter those policies and not infringe on the liberties of people like that." The governor is not nearly as well known as his rivals for the nomination, and will need to raise his name recognition nationwide in order to become a formidable opponent.


February 1 - Nationwide and Statewide Polls

National - Republican
Marco Rubio - 24%
Chris Christie - 23%
Rand Paul - 15%
Rick Santorum - 13%
Bobby Jindal - 8%
Undecided - 17%

Iowa - Republican
Marco Rubio - 20%
Rand Paul - 17%
Rick Santorum - 17%
Chris Christie - 11%
Bobby Jindal - 10%
Undecided - 25%

New Hampshire - Republican
Chris Christie - 33%
Marco Rubio - 21%
Rand Paul - 17%
Bobby Jindal - 9%
Rick Santorum - 5%
Undecided - 15%

National - Democratic
Joe Biden - 41%
Andrew Cuomo - 23%
Martin O'Malley - 13%
Brian Schweitzer - 6%
Undecided - 17%

Iowa - Democratic
Joe Biden - 56%
Andrew Cuomo - 15%
Martin O'Malley - 13%
Brian Schweitzer - 6%
Undecided - 10%

New Hampshire - Democratic
Joe Biden - 34%
Andrew Cuomo - 25%
Martin O'Malley - 16%
Brian Schweitzer - 11%
Undecided - 14%


I appreciate the comments from everyone so far. If there's any suggestions that you guys have to improve this, feel free to say them.

[PPT Spiral]

February 3

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand at a rally in New York City announced the formation of her campaign. "Together, we can ensure that everyone has the ability to own a home, buy food for their family, and to live a happy life," stated Gillibrand in one of her more emotional parts of the speech. Gillibrand will be facing her state's governor in the primaries and can be seen as a more liberal alternative to Cuomo as they compete for votes.

February 7

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren in a web video originally posted on her Facebook page announced her intention to run. "For far too long in Washington, many Democrats included, the establishment has let the banks and corporations dominate our society," Warren stated, "and this needs to end now." The senator and former Harvard professor is heralded as a hero of the left, standing up to progressive ideals, but many are worried about her ability to alienate moderates and independents with her policies and rhetoric looking forward.

February 14

Former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell on FOX News Sunday made clear of his intentions to launch a campaign. "Yep, Chris, you'll hear it first here: I'm running for president, so we don't get another four years of somebody like Obama." While in office, McDonnell had a solid record for his state's economy, having a lower unemployment rate than average, but some social issues undergone under his term may give some Republicans hesitation as they look to create a new image for themselves.

February 16

Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper became the latest politician to enter the presidential race today, with a rally in Denver illustrating his goals. "During uncertain times, we need a strong leader who can guide the path forward, and I'm the one who can do that, ladies and gentlemen," said Hickenlooper. The governor has made a moderate image for himself, and is popular in his home state, but his relative lack of charisma may impede him as the candidates try to find bases of support.

February 23

Kansas Governor Sam Brownback put his hat in the ring today by joining the Republican field of candidates for 2016, announcing his run on Hannity. After host Sean Hannity asked him about 2016, Brownback only replied, "Yes." Brownback as governor has impressed fiscal conservatives with efforts to rein in state spending and cutting taxes, and continues to have socially conservative followers as his main base, but his 2008 run was very unsuccessful and he may face difficulty once more as Republicans try to shed their old image.

March 1 - Nationwide and Statewide Polls

National - Republican
Chris Christie - 24%
Marco Rubio - 18%
Rand Paul - 14%
Bobby Jindal - 11%
Bob McDonnell - 8%
Rick Santorum - 7%
Sam Brownback - 4%
Undecided - 14%

Iowa - Republican
Rand Paul - 15%
Marco Rubio - 15%
Chris Christie - 14%
Bob McDonnell - 12%
Rick Santorum - 12%
Bobby Jindal - 9%
Sam Brownback - 8%
Undecided - 15%

New Hampshire - Republican
Chris Christie - 35%
Marco Rubio - 17%
Rand Paul - 16%
Bobby Jindal - 12%
Bob McDonnell - 5%
Sam Brownback - 3%
Rick Santorum - 2%
Undecided - 10%

National - Democratic
Joe Biden - 37%
Andrew Cuomo - 23%
Elizabeth Warren - 15%
Martin O'Malley - 6%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 5%
John Hickenlooper - 3%
Brian Schweitzer - 2%
Undecided - 9%

Iowa - Democratic
Joe Biden - 47%
Elizabeth Warren - 17%
Andrew Cuomo - 13%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 6%
Martin O'Malley - 6%
Brian Schweitzer - 3%
John Hickenlooper - 2%
Undecided - 5%

New Hampshire - Democratic
Joe Biden - 27%
Andrew Cuomo - 20%
Elizabeth Warren - 18%
Martin O'Malley - 10%
Brian Schweitzer - 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 6%
John Hickenlooper - 4%
Undecided - 8%

[PPT Spiral]

March-June 2015

As the race for the nomination on both sides rages on, the polls have been fluid in their changes as candidates rise and fall. On the Democratic side, Vice President Joe Biden has seen his once tremendous lead nationwide and in many states fall over the course of the last few months, now facing stiff competition from Governor Andrew Cuomo as his campaign is gaining momentum, with Senator Elizabeth Warren holding a steady third place. On the Republican side, Governor Chris Christie has come into first place in many polls following a drop in support for Senator Marco Rubio after poor debate performances, and candidates such as Senator Rand Paul and Governor Bobby Jindal are picking up the bulk of Rubio's previous supporters for now. With a highly competitive environment, more surprising developments are sure to come as January is closer in sight.

July 1 - Nationwide and Statewide Polls

National - Republican
Chris Christie - 23%
Rand Paul - 18%
Bobby Jindal  - 15%
Marco Rubio - 14%
Bob McDonnell - 9%
Rick Santorum - 8%
Sam Brownback - 4%
Undecided - 9%

Iowa - Republican
Chris Christie - 16%
Rand Paul - 16%
Bobby Jindal - 14%
Marco Rubio - 13%
Rick Santorum - 13%
Bob McDonnell - 11%
Sam Brownback - 7%
Undecided - 10%

New Hampshire - Republican
Chris Christie - 33%
Rand Paul - 21%
Marco Rubio - 14%
Bobby Jindal - 13%
Bob McDonnell - 5%
Rick Santorum - 2%
Sam Brownback - 1%
Undecided - 11%

National - Democratic
Joe Biden - 30%
Andrew Cuomo - 26%
Elizabeth Warren - 15%
Martin O'Malley - 8%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 6%
Brian Schweitzer - 6%
John Hickenlooper - 3%
Undecided - 6%

Iowa - Democratic
Joe Biden - 36%
Elizabeth Warren - 20%
Andrew Cuomo - 15%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 8%
Brian Schweitzer - 8%
Martin O'Malley - 5%
John Hickenlooper - 3%
Undecided - 5%

New Hampshire - Democratic
Andrew Cuomo - 24%
Joe Biden - 22%
Elizabeth Warren - 17%
Martin O'Malley - 10%
Brian Schweitzer - 9%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 7%
John Hickenlooper - 4%
Undecided - 7%

[PPT Spiral]

July 6

BREAKING: BIDEN HAS BRAIN ANEURYSM

Early this morning, Vice President Joe Biden was rushed in George Washington University Hospital for treatment of a brain aneurysm deemed as "serious" by a Biden spokesman. The vice president has had a history with brain aneurysms, having two in 1988 following a failed presidential bid then. President Barack Obama made a statement, saying that "I offer my condolences to Joe's family, and hope that he makes a full and speedy recovery."

Meanwhile, the race for the presidency came to a striking halt following news of Biden's condition, with all candidates on both parties wishing the vice president well. How this development will affect the Democratic primaries remains to be seen, depending on if Biden will seek to drop out in the coming days should he survive surgery.

[badgate]

-gasp-

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This looks very promising! Welcome to the forum.

[PPT Spiral]

July 13

BREAKING: BIDEN RESIGNS, ENDS BID

A week after suffering a serious brain aneurysm, Vice President Joe Biden announced in a press release today that he is resigning from the vice presidency and ending his 2016 campaign for president due to future uncertainty about his health. "After thinking it over deeply with loved ones, I no longer have the confidence I once had in ensuring I can get the job done," said Biden in a portion of the statement. President Barack Obama, along with politicians across the political spectrum, wished Biden well in the coming years as he departs from the political scene. President Obama is expected to name Secretary of State John Kerry to be Biden's successor, according to insider sources.

In terms of the presidential race, Biden's decision to leave the race has elevated Governor Andrew Cuomo to the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Cuomo's main threats in the race are now Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Governor Martin O'Malley, who both are trying to cast themselves as the more liberal alternative to Cuomo going forward. In addition, the possibility of more Democratic candidates jumping in now without the hurdle of overcoming Biden's numbers is strong, and will be seen in the coming weeks.


July 15 - Nationwide and Statewide Polls (Democratic)

National - Democratic
Andrew Cuomo - 30%
Elizabeth Warren - 20%
Martin O'Malley - 16%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 13%
Brian Schweitzer - 9%
John Hickenlooper - 3%
Undecided - 9%

Iowa - Democratic
Andrew Cuomo - 25%
Elizabeth Warren - 25%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 13%
Martin O'Malley - 10%
Brian Schweitzer - 10%
John Hickenlooper - 5%
Undecided - 12%

New Hampshire - Democratic
Andrew Cuomo - 31%
Elizabeth Warren - 22%
Martin O'Malley - 17%
Brain Schweitzer - 12%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 8%
John Hickenlooper - 3%
Undecided  - 7%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Vice President Kerry. Huh, maybe he will get the White House after all, being a heartbeat away from the Presidency and all.

[PPT Spiral]

Vice President Kerry. Huh, maybe he will get the White House after all, being a heartbeat away from the Presidency and all.

You never know

[Enderman]

Vice President Kerry. Huh, maybe he will get the White House after all, being a heartbeat away from the Presidency and all.

You never know

[dudeabides]

January 10

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination on FOX News Sunday with Chris Wallace. "I'm running because the United States must return to constitutional principles if we are to ever rein in the power of big government and restore liberty to the people," Paul stated while speaking with the host Chris Wallace. The son of former Texas Congressman Ron Paul has built himself up to be the leader of the Tea Party faction of the Republican Party and is bound to do better than his father in the primaries.

January 11

Vice President Joe Biden earlier made a statement that he will be running for president while doing an interview for MSNBC. "Yes, I will be running," Biden said when confronted with a question about his intentions following Hillary Clinton passing up a potential candidacy. The vice president is the immediate frontrunner for the Democratic nomination with Clinton out of the picture, but may face strong challenges from other contenders down the line.

January 13

Outgoing Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley in a speech in Baltimore announced that he will be jumping in the ring for his party's nomination. "We need a strong leader in office who can stand up for the ideals of the Democratic Party, and I'm just the one to do that," O'Malley stated. The governor has made inroads with the party base following strong pushes towards issues such as gun control and the death penalty.

January 16

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced in Newark earlier that he will be running for president in 2016. "I'm here to shake up the status quo down there in Washington and show them who's boss after years of ignoring the American people," Christie said in one point of his speech. Christie, a beloved figure in the state of New Jersey, is highly popular with moderates and even Democrats, but the conservative base that makes up the core of the party is very skeptical towards him and could pose a threat to his candidacy.

January 17

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum on Meet the Press told the host David Gregory about his desire to run this cycle. "Yes, absolutely, David, I'm running," Santorum stated, "because this nation's morals are disintegrating before our very eyes with liberals like Obama running this country." Santorum, who finished second behind Mitt Romney in the 2012 primaries, has built up a network of supporters since the last election that will ensure continued success with the social conservatives in the Republican Party.

January 18

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo while doing an interview on The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer told CNN about his plans to run for the presidency. "My campaign officially starts today, and this campaign will be about defining true leadership in office, and who has the results to show that," Cuomo said. The governor has the ability to raise large amounts of money for his pursuits with a well-connected infrastructure of donors, and may be the primary competitor to Vice President Biden over the course of the campaign.

I believe that Chris Christie will be much like John McCain was in 2000: the anti-establishment maverick.

This is going to be interesting!

[PPT Spiral]

Oh, hey, this thing. I'll try to start updating regularly again.


July 2015-January 2016

In the months following the end of former Vice President Joe Biden's bid for president, the Democratic primaries took a completely new turn. The introduction of new candidates - Virginia Senator Mark Warner and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar - in August led to the deterioration of Andrew Cuomo's post-Biden lead in the polls and resulting in an even uglier primary fight. Martin O'Malley's support, which appeared to be soft, collapsed following fiercer competition, while candidates such as Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Schweitzer benefited from the fall of O'Malley with better polling numbers than ever before. At the top, Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren are currently leading in most polls, though the fluid numbers suggest upsets are easily possible down the road.

On the Republican side, the attention for the campaign has largely turned towards two particular candidates: Chris Christie and Rand Paul, now in a tight struggle for first place in many polls. Marco Rubio, once the frontrunner, has seen his numbers significantly drop following a number of publicized gaffes on debates and on the campaign trail, with Paul picking up the majority of Rubio's former supporters in his place. Bobby Jindal has kept a consistent third place nationally over the last few months, and Rick Santorum seems to have an uptick in his numbers from social conservatives leaving Rubio, as well as the decline of Bob McDonnell and Sam Brownback. Even with the Christie-Paul struggle, the room for strong competition from one of the other candidates can still be seen as likely.

With only days to go until the Iowa caucuses, all of the candidates are scrambling to earn the trust of undecided voters in the final stretch.

January 1 - National and Statewide Polls

National - Republican
Chris Christie - 25%
Rand Paul - 24%
Bobby Jindal - 15%
Marco Rubio - 8%
Rick Santorum - 8%
Bob McDonnell - 6%
Sam Brownback - 3%
Undecided  - 11%

Iowa - Republican
Rand Paul - 21%
Bobby Jindal - 17%
Chris Christie - 16%
Rick Santorum - 15%
Marco Rubio - 9%
Bob McDonnell - 7%
Sam Brownback - 5%
Undecided - 10%

New Hampshire - Republican
Chris Christie - 30%
Rand Paul - 25%
Bobby Jindal - 16%
Marco Rubio - 10%
Rick Santorum - 5%
Bob McDonnell - 3%
Sam Brownback - 1%
Undecided - 10%

National - Democratic
Andrew Cuomo - 19%
Elizabeth Warren - 19%
Mark Warner - 15%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 13%
Brian Schweitzer - 13%
Martin O'Malley - 4%
Amy Klobuchar - 3%
John Hickenlooper - 2%
Undecided - 12%

Iowa - Democratic
Elizabeth Warren - 20%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 16%
Mark Warner - 16%
Brian Schweitzer - 15%
Andrew Cuomo - 13%
Amy Klobuchar - 6%
John Hickenlooper - 3%
Martin O'Malley - 2%
Undecided - 9%

New Hampshire - Democratic
Andrew Cuomo - 23%
Elizabeth Warren - 20%
Brian Schweitzer - 16%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 14%
Mark Warner - 7%
Martin O'Malley - 6%
Amy Klobuchar - 5%
John Hickenlooper - 1%
Undecided - 8%