GA-PPP: Could be a competetive race

[Tender Branson]

Georgia Senate race could be competitive

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's new Georgia poll finds that with a pretty anonymous set of
potential Republican candidates, Democrats might have a real shot at making the Senate
race competitive next year.

PPP looked at match ups involving 5 Republicans (Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, Karen
Handel, Jack Kingston and Tom Price) and 3 Democrats (John Barrow, Jason Carter, and
Max Cleland). Cleland is the only person in the whole bunch who has more than 50%
statewide name recognition, with 48% of voters rating him favorably to 29% with an
unfavorable view.

If Cleland could be coaxed into the race he would start out with a lead over every
Republican we tested him against. He's up 1 against Price, 3 against Kingston, 5 against
Gingrey, and 7 against Broun and Handel. Democratic prospects for winning the seat
might not hinge on what could be an unlikely Cleland candidacy though. John Barrow
trails by an average of only 4/10ths of a point against the Republicans we tested- leading
Gingrey and Handel by 1, tying Broun, trailing Price by 1, and trailing Kingston by 3.
Carter trails the quintet of Republicans we tested by an average of 3.8 points- he's down 2
to Broun and Gingrey, 4 to Handel, 5 to Price, and 6 to Kingston.

“Obviously it’s been a long time since Democrats won a major election in Georgia,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if they nominate a strong
candidate next year and the Republicans nominate someone to the far right, this could be
one of their few pick up opportunities in a year where the Senate map sets up well for the
GOP.”

It's hard to say much about the Republican contest for Senate right now other than that it's
a complete tossup. We tested 7 potential candidates and 6 of them all clustered between
10 and 15% in our polling- Handel and Kingston get 15%, Casey Cagle comes in at 13%,
Gingrey gets 12%, Broun 11%, Price 10%, and Tom Graves 3%. The plurality goes to
undecided at 20%.

PPP surveyed 602 Georgia voters and 366 usual Republican primary voters from
February 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.0% and +/-5.1%
for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_219.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

Doubt that many will run, plus Barrow isn't running and Cleland's long retired.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

We have a serious pick-up opportunity here. We just need a good candidate and for Obama to stay as far away as possible while leaving his machine here.

[tmthforu94]

This GOP primary is shaping up to be similar to the 2010 Gubernatorial one. I wouldn't be surprised if Handel and one of the conservative Congressmen make the final round with the conservative Congressmen winning.

[RogueBeaver]

If Handel runs, though I wouldn't consider her a moderate. So long as Price gets in and makes the runoff I'm happy. Replace a useless porker with a conservative leader.

[tmthforu94]

If Handel runs, though I wouldn't consider her a moderate. So long as Price gets in and makes the runoff I'm happy. Replace a useless porker with a conservative leader.

Your memory of the 2010 Gubernatorial primary must be foggy, then.

When my brother lived in Georgia, Price was his representative. I've always liked him - I'd prefer a Price-Handel runoff, though I personally would support Handel.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If Handel runs, though I wouldn't consider her a moderate. So long as Price gets in and makes the runoff I'm happy. Replace a useless porker with a conservative leader.

Your memory of the 2010 Gubernatorial primary must be foggy, then.

When my brother lived in Georgia, Price was his representative. I've always liked him - I'd prefer a Price-Handel runoff, though I personally would support Handel.

I don't think Gingrey, Kingston or Cagle run, along with Cleland and Barrow (he'll probably gun for Deal). Handel, Broun, Price, and Graves run. Handel and Price split the moderate-conservative vote allowing Broun to slip into the run-off with one of them. Broun wins the nomination.
Carter will run and I think Roy Barnes MIGHT run. I don't know who wins the primary as Barnes is more popular than he was in 2002 and the Carter name still carries good will around here.

[Talleyrand]

If Handel runs, though I wouldn't consider her a moderate. So long as Price gets in and makes the runoff I'm happy. Replace a useless porker with a conservative leader.

Your memory of the 2010 Gubernatorial primary must be foggy, then.

When my brother lived in Georgia, Price was his representative. I've always liked him - I'd prefer a Price-Handel runoff, though I personally would support Handel.

Handel was a considered a conservative Tea Partier by most, but some particularly conservative individuals attacked her for being a three-exception candidate (allowing abortion to be legal in cases of rape, threat to mother's life, and incest).

Regardless, I'd like to see a Cleland comeback, although he's a bit old. Otherwise Carter or Barrow could be great. Carter, in particular, is young and could build a good bit of name recognition. I'd rather Barrow stay in the House at this time, since we'd lose the seat without him.