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News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 112083 times)
Trends are MORE than real
Nathan
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« Reply #200 on: January 19, 2014, 04:05:08 AM »

Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?

It has that reputation, and it's understandable why it would since it's loosely affiliated with the Democratic Party, but statistically that doesn't seem to actually be the case.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #201 on: January 19, 2014, 12:10:28 PM »

Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




I'm surprised that Ted Cruz is polling that poorly in his home state of Texas. I was expecting him to be polling at 60%, even against Hillary Clinton.

Texas is changing my friend, and it's changing fast! Tongue

Ted Cruz does not have such a strong connection to Texas as one might expect. He was not born there, and even if he is half-Hispanic, he is the wrong sort of Hispanic. He's a right-wing Cuban-American. The vast majority of Texas Hispanics are Mexican-Americans whose political culture is closer to that of New York Jews than to right-wing Cuban-Americans in Florida. Anti-Communism is not the polestar of Mexican-American politics. He's an evangelical Christian, which is very much in the minority of Hispanics of any origin, and being part of a tradition hostile to Roman Catholicism is not good for reaching Catholic voters.   

I'm not so sure that Cuban-Americans in Florida are so right-wing as they used to be.

We shall see how well he does in Florida; PPP is polling Florida this weekend. If he isn't even close in Florida his only prospect as a Republican nominee is to go down in a crashing defeat.

Ted Cruz got elected in Texas 56-41; he did worse than Mitt Romney. He has just started a term in the US Senate, and so far he has shown himself an extremist. I'm not discussing what I do with him if he should be down worse in Florida than in North Carolina.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #202 on: January 20, 2014, 09:24:08 AM »
« Edited: January 20, 2014, 09:28:01 AM by pbrower2a »

Siena, New York

If the 2016 election for president was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

60-32 Clinton/Christie (up from 56-40 in their Nov. poll)
55-35 Cuomo/Christie (Christie was ahead 47-42 in their Nov. poll)

(Nothing else relating to the 2016 Presidential election, but I figure that Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker would do even worse in the Empire State). It is surprising that I have no matchups other than Clinton or Cuomo against Christie.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/SNY%20January%202014%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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eric82oslo
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« Reply #203 on: January 20, 2014, 10:10:31 AM »
« Edited: January 22, 2014, 01:32:29 PM by eric82oslo »

New Jersey has a new poll out, where Hillary is back on her throne, leading Christie with a whooping 21%. This improves Hillary's NJ average by about 5%, and also her national average by 0.2%.

Siena has released its 2nd New York poll on the 2016 election, which translates to the 4th unique NY poll on 2016 regardless of pollster. Out of the 4 polls, this is Hillary's strongest showing against Christie and almost 8% stronger than the previous consensus of polls. Thus her average also improves by 2 percentage points.


The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 86.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.3%
+1.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement

(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.0% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +7%
12. Georgia: D +6%

13. New York: R +5.9%
14. Michigan: R +5.8%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 18 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of January 22.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #204 on: January 21, 2014, 02:45:02 PM »

Nationwide:

Quinnipiac: "Bridgegate" takes toll on Christie, now trails Clinton by 8   (Tender Branson)


46-38 Clinton/Christie (was 41-42 in their last poll)
49-39 Clinton/Paul (48-41)
49-38 Clinton/Bush (48-39)
50-35 Clinton/Cruz (50-37)

The drop-off for Christie was 9%, while it was only 2-3% for the other Republicans.

From January 15 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,933 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. The survey includes 813 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points and 803 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1998
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #205 on: January 22, 2014, 03:01:27 PM »

Rutgers-Eagleton, NJ

 The 2016 presidential election is far away, but if the election for president were today, and the
candidates were [ROTATE ORDER: Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton],
for whom would you vote?

REGISTERED VOTERS
Christie  34%
Clinton  55%
Someone else (vol) 3%
Don't know 8%
Unwgt N= 746

http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~redlawsk/EP/Tables2014/ChristieRatingsGWBScandalJan2014.pdf

Collapse!


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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eric82oslo
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« Reply #206 on: January 26, 2014, 12:58:53 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2014, 03:54:46 PM by eric82oslo »


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.0% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


Now, suppose that the remaining 24 states + Washington D.C. all experience a uniform swing like the till now measured national swing of Clinton +3% compared to Obama's 2012 numbers. What would we get in these remaining states? Here's the current answer (filling out with the 26 already polled states' averages):

Washington D.C.: D +86.6%
Hawaii: D +45.7%
Vermont: D +38.6%
Rhode Island: D +30.5%
Maryland: D +29.1%
Massachusetts: D +26.1%
California: D +26.1%
New York: D +22.25%
Delaware: D +21.6%
Connecticut: D +20.3%
Illinois: D +19.9%
Washington: D +17.9%
Oregon: D +15.1%
New Mexico: D +13.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Nevada: D +9.7%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%

Arizona: R +6.1%
Missouri: R +6.4%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%

Indiana: R +7.2%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%

South Dakota: R +15%
North Dakota: R +16.6%
Tennessee: R +17.4%
Nebraska: R +18.8%
Alabama: R +19.2%
Wyoming: R +28%
Idaho: R +28.9%
Oklahoma: R +30.5%
Utah: R +45%


According to these "estimates", the most interesting new states to poll going forward should be these, in descending order of importance/swinging ability:

1. Nevada (D +2.8% more than current national average)
2. New Mexico (D +6.3% more than n.a.)
3. Oregon (D +8.2% more than n.a.)
4. Washington (D +11% more than n.a.)
5. Arizona (R +13% more than n.a.)
6. Illinois (D +13% more than n.a.)
7. Missouri (R +13.3% more than n.a.)
8. Connecticut (D +13.4% more than n.a.)
9. Indiana (R +14.1% more than n.a.)
10. Delaware (D +14.7% more than n.a.)
11. California (D +19.2% more than n.a.)
12. Massachussetts (D +19.2% more than n.a.)
13. South Dakota (R +21.9% more than n.a.)
14. Maryland (D +22.2% more than n.a.)
15. North Dakota (R +23.5% more than n.a.)
16. Rhode Island (D +23.6% more than n.a.)
17. Tennessee (R +24.3% more than n.a.)

The remaining 7 states + D.C. aren't likely to be close in any circumstances.

Here's another fact of the polling done in the 26 states so far. What's the average swing of the 13 Democratic-leaning states (as of 2012) polled so far and what's the average swing of the 13 Republican-leaning states polled thus far? (The only states to have switched colors/allegiance by January 26, 2014 are Colorado & Arkansas.) Well the answer is this:

Average swing of 13 Democratic states polled: R +3.9%
Average swing of 13 Republican states polled: D +9.9%


Now, if we use these metrics above instead, our digital map would rather look like this:

Washington D.C.: D +79.7%
Hawaii: D +38.8%
Vermont: D +31.7%
Rhode Island: D +23.6%
New York: D +22.25%
Maryland: D +22.2%
Massachusetts: D +19.2%
California: D +19.2%
Delaware: D +14.7%
Connecticut: D +13.4%
Illinois: D +13%
Washington: D +11%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Oregon: D +8.2%
Maine: D +8%
New Mexico: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

The new estimated/projected national average would then be: D +5.8%

New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%

Nevada: D +2.8%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%

Arizona: D +0.8%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Missouri: D +0.5%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Indiana: R +0.3%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%

South Dakota: R +8.1%
Mississippi: R +9%
North Dakota: R +9.7%
Tennessee: R +10.5%
Nebraska: R +11.9%
Alabama: R +12.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%

Idaho: R +22%
Oklahoma: R +23.6%
Wyoming: R +28%
Utah: R +38.1%


The three closest swing/battleground states in 2016 could thus very well be Minnesota and New Mexico, followed by New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Florida. Next in line then follws Michigan, Maine, Oregon, Ohio and Nevada - all seeming like strong possibilities to become crucial battleground states if we rely on this analysis above.

This electoral map would result in 28 states + D.C. supporting Hillary for president, while the other 22 states would support whomever the Republicans decide to nominate. An even more fun fact: With this map we would be taken straight back to the nail-biting 2000 election again, in the sense that no less than 6 states would be decided by a margin of 1% or less!

Moreover, it would give us this state map:



Explanation:

30% shade: 0-5% margin
40% shade: 5-10% margin
50% shade: 10-15% margin
60% shade: 15-20% margin
70% shade: 20-25% margin
80% shade: 25-30% margin
90% shade: More than 30% margin

That would give us an amazing 19 battleground states with a winning candidate margin of less than 5%! And that isn't even including the states that would be within 5% of the national popular vote. Then we would have to add another 6 states for a total of 25 states. All in all the map would give us 14 states within 5% of the national popular vote.

And the EV count?

Hillary Clinton: 350 EVs
Republican nominee: 188 EVs


Seems likely/reasonable to you? Be my guest and discuss it if you want.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #207 on: January 28, 2014, 11:15:01 AM »

That map looks pretty accurate to me if you swap AR and NC.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #208 on: January 30, 2014, 11:30:56 PM »

Purple Strategies, Boston Globe, New Hampshire

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http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/01/30/scott-brown-tied-with-jeanne-shaheen-new-hampshire-senate-poll/cWO1QLxO95GlnG3pK7wAUM/story.html


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #209 on: January 31, 2014, 04:04:07 PM »

Quinnipiac poll of Florida:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2001

Clinton 49%
Bush 43%

Clinton 51%
Rubio 41%

Clinton 53%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Christie 35%

Clinton 52%
Ryan 39%

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

The Christie collapse is evident in Florida, one of the two states (Ohio is the other) best described as microcosms of America. If Hillary Clinton can win Florida by a 15% margin against someone not a favorite son and by 6% against a favorite son, then she's going to win the Presidency with an Eisenhower-scale  landslide. How tough is that? Except for the LBJ landslide, the highest percentage of the total vote for a Democratic nominee since FDR in 1944 (53.39%) was Obama in 2008 (52.86%).

PPP never released its poll of Florida on the 2016 Presidential election, and I would likely average it with these results. I can't imagine Florida lurching much faster to the political left than the US as a whole.

The New Hampshire poll is probably not wrong for what it measured; it is likely obsolete.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #210 on: January 31, 2014, 04:27:45 PM »


Florida, Quinnipiac:

Clinton vs. Cruz

 Clinton 54% -- Cruz 34%

I have yet to take Ted Cruz seriously as a potential Republican nominee for the President. Republican nominees often win Florida by 10% or more ('52, '56, '72, '80, '84, and '88).  Democrats have not win Florida by more than 10% since 1948, and it was surprisingly close in the 1964 blowout by LBJ. Carter by 5.3% and Clinton by 6.3% are the two biggest margins for Democratic nominees in Florida.

In case Ted Cruz is seen as a Great Hispanic Hope for Republicans because he is a Cuban-American -- at this spread he would win the votes of Cuban-Americans who still have voodoo dolls of Fidel Castro in which they insert needles and little else among Hispanics. He would likely lose the Cuban-American vote in Florida at this spread.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 





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eric82oslo
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« Reply #211 on: January 31, 2014, 06:05:59 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 12:55:36 PM by eric82oslo »

We witness a big shift today with our newest supply on Florida. It's the 7th poll officially released on the Sunshine State this season, but only the 2nd one to include Christie as well. And boy do we see tectonic shifts. The previous Republican frontrunner in the state, Christie, see's his average decline from -4% to lackluster -10%. He's basically out of the game in the state now. In comes, instead, Jeb Bush. It means that Florida goes from D +4% to D +7.3%, simultaneously also strenghtening Hillary's Nationwide lead.

Also, Purple Strategies yesterday released what has now become the 5th state poll of New Hampshire, including the four NH polls of 2013. It shows strong numbers for both Christie and Bush, which means a slight improvement of 0.6% for Christie in the state overall.


The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 88.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement

(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +7%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of January 31.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #212 on: January 31, 2014, 07:41:10 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2014, 01:24:49 AM by pbrower2a »

This is the best scenario that I can see a Republican nominee having if he can't rely upon Florida.   He can still win:



In essence the Republican nominee has sealed every state that has gone to Dubya twice except Florida (which is lost), but the Democrat is struggling in Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (I pick those states because Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico all went for Dubya once; Wisconsin was extremely close in 2004; Pennsylvania was second-closest to being the tipping-point state in 2012, and Michigan could be volatile in the event of a disaster in the shaky automobile industry).

The Democratic nominee has locked up 225 electoral votes, and the Republican nominee has locked up 252 electoral votes. The Republican nominee can still lock up the election with Pennsylvania absolutely decisive in favor of the Republican but not absolutely necessary.  

Here are five ways with no overlap for a Democrat to win:

1. PA MI WI
   
2. PA MI NM NH

3. PA MI IA NM
   
4. PA MI IA NH

5. PA WI IA NM NH



Here are the ways in which a Republican wins, again with no overlap:

1. PA
   
2. MI IA
   
3. MI NH

4. MI WI
   
5. WI IA NH

Shift Nevada and its mere 5 electoral votes into the D category, and things get literally dicey (pun intended) for the Republican. The Democrat gets three more ways in which to win, and the Republican gets four more ways to win -- but those involve more contingencies.
 
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« Reply #213 on: February 06, 2014, 12:06:24 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 12:54:57 PM by eric82oslo »

PPP has polled Alaska once again (third time this season). Just like the previous times, Jeb Bush is still the strongest candidate in the state, though Rand Paul is not far behind (does only 1,5% worse). Jeb Bush is ever so slightly expanding his lead in the state (going from +7% to +7.5%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 89.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement

(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 5.
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« Reply #214 on: February 06, 2014, 06:45:08 AM »
« Edited: February 06, 2014, 02:47:46 PM by pbrower2a »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/02/alaska-miscellany.html

Clinton 44%
Palin 43%

Bush 47%
Clinton 39%

Paul 47%
Clinton 41%

Huckabee 45%
Clinton 41%

Christie 43%
Clinton 39%

Those are very weak leads for any Republican except for Rand Paul and Jeb Bush. Alaska seems to have a strong libertarian streak (just don't take away the oil dividend!) For what it is worth, Alaska went for John McCain by a margin of 21.5% and for Romney by 14%. Alaska probably won't be competitive in 2016. If the Republican nominee can't win Alaska by at least 10%, then few people in the Eastern Time Zone are going to stay up on Election Night to see how Alaska goes.  

Colorado, Quinnipiac

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2004

Nothing on Bush. I see a Christie collapse in this poll. Others are essentially unchanged. Colorado elections have been decided late by GOTV drives. 

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #215 on: February 06, 2014, 02:55:08 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2014, 01:10:26 PM by pbrower2a »

Ohio, Quinnipiac

51-34 Clinton/Cruz

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2010

Needless to say I do not take Ted Cruz seriously. I wouldn't make much of the color change, as it is a change of about 1%. In the last few elections Colorado has tended to break for Democrats late in the campaign season with Democrats turning not-so-likely voters into voters.



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material.  
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #216 on: February 06, 2014, 04:17:47 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 12:54:25 PM by eric82oslo »

In Colorado, which has been polled for the 6th time now, it's a very Close race between Chris Christie and Paul Ryan for the lead. Christie is still slightly Ahead, as he's leading Hillary by an average of 3.6%, despite trailing her by 1% in this latest poll. However, the two polls which have also included Ryan, shows him with an average lead of 3.5%, basically the same as Christie's lead. In other words, next time the two get polled in the state, or even just Christie does, it's hard to imagine Ryan not surpassing the New Jersey Governor then. Hillary does improve her Colorado average by 1.15%, though still trailing Obama's 2016 margin in the state by a whooping 9%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 90.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement

(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 6.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #217 on: February 12, 2014, 02:40:18 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 12:54:01 PM by eric82oslo »

PPP has just polled North Carolina for the 5th time this presidential election cycle (the only one to my knowledge who's been polling the state so far), including for the 4th time with Christie included. Due to Christie having been up on Hillary the three previous times they've clashed together in the state, and Christie still only trailing the frontrunner by 3% in North Carolina, the NJ Governor still retains a very scarce lead in the state by a meager 1%. Christie is btw the only Republican who's ever been ahead of Hillary in the state in any of the 18 match-ups they've conducted. The closest non-Christie Republicans have been to endanger Hillary in the state was when Jeb Bush only trailed her by 1% in December. In other words, right now, North Carolina looks fairly safe for Hillary, unless the underlying conditions should change substatially in the years leading up to the election. This also results in North Carolina going from a slight Republican to a slight Democratic swing relative to 2012. All of the (polled) South except Virginia is now showing Democratic swings.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 91.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 12.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #218 on: February 12, 2014, 10:18:24 PM »

North Carolina, PPP:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_212.pdf

I don't map Huckabee yet. Prospects of the Republicans having command of the next Presidentiad (Ralph Waldo Emerson coined that word) now look very poor. Republicans have not lost North Carolina in a close election since 1976, when Carter depended heavily upon the South for popular and electoral votes. (2008 was not a close election, thank you).

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #219 on: February 12, 2014, 11:22:19 PM »

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

You've forgot to include the PPP poll from December that had Christie 4% ahead of Hillary in Kentucky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Kentucky

Also there's the Harper poll that showed Christie ahead of Hillary in South Carolina, but I think I remember you not including it cause of the unreliableness of the pollster. Wouldn't take an earthquake for a Republican to be ahead of Hillary in SC though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #220 on: February 13, 2014, 06:13:38 AM »

Missing polls of Kentucky from December (PPP):

Hillary Clinton    42%    Jeb Bush            46%        
Hillary Clinton    40%     Chris Christie    44%    
Hillary Clinton    44%    Ted Cruz            41%    
Hillary Clinton    43%    Rand Paul     49%

I recall rejecting the poll involving South Carolina because the organization  commissioning  for had the word "Conservative"  in its name. Hillary Clinton would probably lose South Carolina in just about any binary matchup, but if I were to use a poll with such an ideological bias where credible I might be obliged to use polls commissioned by Left-leaning interests. I have no desire to put in a poll made on behalf of the UAW or the NAACP in Ohio.     


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #221 on: February 13, 2014, 06:30:43 AM »



You've forgot to include the PPP poll from December that had Christie 4% ahead of Hillary in Kentucky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Kentucky

Also there's the Harper poll that showed Christie ahead of Hillary in South Carolina, but I think I remember you not including it cause of the unreliableness of the pollster. Wouldn't take an earthquake for a Republican to be ahead of Hillary in SC though.

Correction made. Thank you. As elsewhere I suspect that Chris Christie has lost such crossover support as he had in other states in Kentucky as well.  But we are showing the 'fossil record' and not living reality, right?   
.........


Needless to say I do not take Ted Cruz seriously. I wouldn't make much of the color change, as it is a change of about 1%. If he is lagging in Kentucky, then he stands to lose big if the GOP nominee.



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Clinton vs. Cruz



..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #222 on: February 13, 2014, 12:51:23 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2014, 05:00:03 PM by eric82oslo »

New York has been polled for the 5th time, even by three different pollsters. This time it's Quinnipiac getting at it again, showing Hillary with a 27% edge over Christie. It doesn't change the race a whole lot, just adding another point to Hillary's already impressive lead in the state. Now it would be very interesting seeing any other of the leading GOP contenders being matched with Hillary in the state. Perhaps Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush would do better there? Even Rubio or Rand Paul could potentially have a shot - that is doing better than Christie does right now.

Also, Epic-MRA has polled Michigan for the 1st time, 5th time a pollster has polled there this season & the 4th time with Christie included. Unfortunately they only polled the Hillary-Christie match-up, yet nothing changed for the average of that contest. Hillary still leading in the state by 3.75%.


The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 93.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.1% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 14.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #223 on: February 15, 2014, 01:36:26 AM »

In view of its dreadful record in the past, I would not trust Epic-MRA for polling in Michigan. That pollster operates only in Michigan.

It has Barack Obama down 37-61, which makes no sense in a State that went 54-45 for the President in 2012. The fault with that poll is that it has a set of "excellent-good-fair-poor" choices. "Fair" in school grading is a C, good enough through a BA degree.   

In any event, the poll is still shows much the same as an earlier and more credible poll of Michigan.
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« Reply #224 on: February 18, 2014, 01:30:33 PM »

Louisiana, PPP:

Christie- 44%
Clinton- 43%

Jindal- 47%
Clinton- 45%

Paul- 47%
Clinton- 43%

Huckabee- 49%
Clinton- 44%

Bush- 50%
Clinton- 43%  

The closeness of this polling indicates that Republicans have deep trouble against Hillary Clinton nationwide. 


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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