2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Adjusting for Alaska. I ignore Sarah Palin. I also ignore the Gravis poll for Wisconsin because the one binary choice involves Paul Ryan, who has never done well anywhere and is a classic non-choice for the Presidency.

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Kentucky.

Paul: 49% --- Clinton: 43%
Bush: 48% --- Clinton 43%
Huckabee: 47% --- Clinton: 44%
Clinton 44% --- Christie 41%
Clinton 46% --- Cruz 41%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/kentucky-miscellany.html

For a state that Republicans have won by margins of 22% (2012), 16% (2008), 20% (2004), and 15% (2000) in the last five Presidential elections, these results show the prospect of a Republican nominee winning Kentucky, but not very impressively. Of course, 3% means the same as 30% in a winner-take-all election... but this bodes ill for a Republican nominee winning such states as Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina. A 6% lead for Rand Paul in Kentucky shows how weak his candidacy would be nationwide.

Oddity: Republicans have not won the Presidency without Kentucky since 1952.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

I don't really like to change this map more than once a day, but Kentucky results so compel me. The most recent PPP polls (1) supplant one Gravis poll, and (2) show mixed results with Christie slipping behind Hillary Clinton. Kentucky becomes a legitimate swing state, something that the GOP will be unable to afford. Missouri is more similar to Kentucky than to Arkansas, so Missouri shows up as a legitimate swing state again.

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=50582fcd-fbd1-4015-8068-45d66cc1cbf8

This is consistent with Hillary Clinton winning Florida against everyone but Jeb Bush, Jeb possibly winning solely due to the Favorite Son effect.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina.

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 44%

Clinton 46%
Bush 42%

Clinton 47%
Paul 42%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 41%

Clinton 45%
Christie 38%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_8201205.pdf

North Carolina is a must-win state for any Republican nominee. Republicans have not won a Presidential election without North Carolina since 1956, when the South was the most D part of the US and North Carolina was decidedly D at practically every level.

PPP frequently polls North Carolina.

Jesse Helms must be rolling in his grave.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

If things remain as they are with no Republican making gains against Hillary Clinton, then she wins a minimum of 330 electoral votes and a maximum of 410 electoral votes. 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, New York State:

Clinton 60%
Bush 29%

Clinton 61%
Paul 30%

Clinton 54%
Christie 34%

Cuomo 53%
Bush 30%

Cuomo 55%
Paul 31%

Cuomo 47%
Christie 37%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2072


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Kansas

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_KS_822424.pdf

(Democratic nominees have lost Kansas in every Presidential election since 1964).


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Labor Day weekend. Expect few polls.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, PPP.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/peters-has-biggest-lead-snyder-and-schauer-tight.html#more

Michigan is nowhere close to being close for the 2016 Presidential election.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_909704.pdf

Mid-week poll, which could distort things some from the usual weekend poll; it might catch fewer working people than a weekend poll. Not as strong as the recent Q poll (which I did not believe or show in my maps) in Florida, but bad news for all Republicans trying to succeed President Obama.  Jeb Bush, who would probably have been a better President than his brother, would need to win Florida fair-and-square -- especially if Charlie Crist is Governor. He would have a significant edge in Florida over any other possible  R nominee, but most likely not enough of an edge. Hillary Clinton could still be elected President without Florida, but no Republican can be elected President without Florida.   


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_909704.pdf

Mid-week poll, which could distort things some from the usual weekend poll; it might catch fewer working people than a weekend poll.

How is Sept. 4th-7th "mid-week"?

Whoops -- not strictly a weekend poll. 

[pbrower2a]

I really wish the color coding would be consistent.

Eric and I are measuring different things.

1. He has maps for swings, which I do not have.

2. He is averaging polls; I do not average polls unless the polls are within a week from each other. I normally replace polls with new ones.

3. I reject polls that seem grossly out of line (unless someone corroborates them) and any in which someone  leads with less than 40% of the vote. Thus I have no poll from New Hampshire, the poll that Eric accepted being something like a 38-37 poll.

4. Check the legends on any maps that either of us make.

[pbrower2a]

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012 since their base was extremely enthusiastic in both elections, and it's possible they are not as enthused heading into 2016? Or just a way the pollsters are polling?

Reversion to the mean?

Barack Obama is about as polarizing a politician as there has been.

[pbrower2a]

Gravis Marketing, Arkansas

Paul (R)- 48%
Clinton (D)- 42%

Bush (R)- 49%
Clinton (D)- 42%

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/telephone-survey-arkansas-political-poll/


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

NC, PPP

-The 2016 Presidential race in North Carolina continues to look like it will be close if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, but the numbers are a little bit better for Republicans this month. Clinton trails both Jeb Bush (45/43) and Mike Huckabee (46/45) by modest margins. She leads Rand Paul (46/41), Chris Christie (45/38), and Ted Cruz (48/40) in hypothetical head to heads.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/hagan-lead-steady-at-4-points.html

Hillary seems to have slipped a bit.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

The most recent poll by PPP of North Carolina compels me to rate North Carolina as a pure toss-up with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. Christie and Paul lose, but Bush and Huckabee get bare edges. Mixed results imply a tie.

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Adjusting for Alaska. I ignore Sarah Palin. I also ignore the Gravis poll for Wisconsin because the one binary choice involves Paul Ryan, who has never done well anywhere and is a classic non-choice for the Presidency.

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

PPP poll of Kansas:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/orman-davis-lead-kansas-races.html#more

Bush 46%
Clinton 40%

Christie 42%
Clinton 40%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 41%

Huckabee 45%
Clinton 42%

Paul 43%
Clinton 41%

I find it hard to believe that Kansas could be close in the 2016 Presidential election -- but ignoring Ted Cruz (who puts the GOP at risk of losing as badly as Barry Goldwater did in 1964), Kansas would be in play with any Republican other than Jeb Bush.

We're talking about Kansas. Something is going on there. All that I can figure is that the Hard Right fully took over the GOP and purged away the moderates -- but forgot to govern competently. What were moderates in the GOP can basically join the Kansas Democratic Party and take it over much as dissident Democrats took over the Republican Party in some Southern states. It's only six electoral votes, so it isn't as significant as Virginia. The Republican Party still can't afford to lose Kansas.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

I don't really like to change this map often, especially over a state with 'only' six electoral votes. But the state in question is Kansas, and at this point the state is beginning to show trouble for all potential GOP nominees except Jeb Bush. That is without taking Ted Cruz seriously. Three of four potential nominees would make Kansas very close in 2016.

States have rarely flipped as sharply as Kansas seems to be doing now.  This is 'awry' for Republicans who can't afford to lose anything that they used to find reliable, and potentially wondrous for Democrats.     

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

For what it is worth, Gravis shows Hillary Clinton only 2% behind Rand Paul in Kentucky.  Nothing else that fits this map, but that is a very weak performance for someone who should be a Favorite Son in a state that has gone R by large margins in the last few Presidential elections.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Arkansas

Hillary vs Huckabee:41-53 (R+12%)
Hillary vs Bush: 41-46 (R+5%)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: 43-45 (R+2%)
Hillary vs Cruz: 43-44 (R+1%)

Hillary vs Christie: 42-41 (D+1%)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/gop-ticket-leads-in-arkansas.html#more

Possibly in contention in 2016; the Senate race is a toss-up.


Christie looks like a horrible match for Arkansas. Really, if Rand Paul can do no better in Arkansas and Kentucky than recent polls suggest, he could lose the popular vote 55-45.

Alaska, PPP:


Hillary Clinton: 39%
Jeb Bush: 44%

Hillary Clinton: 36%
Chris Christie: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 39%
Ted Cruz: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Mike Huckabee: 44%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Sarah Palin: 38%

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Rand Paul: 45%

The most northerly state in the Union looks like a Southern state in its voting. The most southerly state in the Union votes as if it were in New England.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

I don't really like to change this map often, especially over a state with 'only' six electoral votes. The shift of Arkansas from barely R for everyone but Huckabee to having mixed results in polling forces a category change -- over very little.
  

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Roanoake Poll:

Hillary vs Christie: D +10% (47-37)
Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +13% (50-37)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +16% (51-35)

Writes Roanoke: "Clinton has widened her lead over both Paul and Ryan, but the Christie margin is unchanged. The July RC Poll included registered voters, but did not screen for likely voters, so the results may not be directly comparable. "

http://roanoke.edu/A-Z_Index/Institute_for_Policy_and_Opinion_Research/Recent_News_Releases/RC_Poll_Election_Sept_2014.htm

Nothing on Jeb Bush or Mike Huckabee. This confirms what a weak candidate Rand Paul would be, and that Paul Ryan has shown that he is not Presidential.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, PPP:

Clinton- 43%
Bush- 43%

Clinton- 45%
Christie- 41%

Clinton- 47%
Cruz- 39%

Clinton- 46%
Huckabee- 42%

Clinton- 47%
Paul- 42%

Trade-off of advantages between two Republicans.

PPP has once again polled the 2016 race in the normally not (so) competitive, jazzy, creole Mardi Gras state of Louisiana. Hillary leads two of her potential competitors, while trailing the three others by single digits:

Vs Jeb Bush: 41-49 (R+8%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 43-50 (R+7%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 44-47 (R+3%)

Vs Bobby Jindal: 46-45 (D+1%)
Vs Chris Christie: 44-42 (D+2%)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/cassidy-has-small-head-to-head-lead-over-landrieu.html#more


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

A poll of registered voters:

50-40 Clinton/Christie
53-32 Clinton/Bush
55-31 Clinton/Paul



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2087

Dominating.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more