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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 110543 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #375 on: August 12, 2014, 03:53:45 pm »
« edited: August 21, 2014, 02:51:03 pm by eric82oslo »

PPP has polled Alaska for the 5th time. Hillary trails 4 candidates with between 8% and 14%, while she's far ahead of Palin once again (+6%). The new Alaska averages:

Vs Rand Paul: R +8% (4 polls)
Vs Bush: R +7.5% (4 polls)
Vs Christie: R +5.4% (5 polls)
Vs Huckabee: R +4.3% (3 polls)
Vs Rubio: R +1% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +1%
Vs Palin: D +7% (5 polls)

This means that Rand Paul takes over the GOP crown from Jeb in Alaska, and that the GOP lead in the state is strenghtened by another percentage point, up from +7% to +8%.

There's also a new poll from Rutgers Eagleton Institute of Politics on New Jersey. Hillary leads Christie by 11%, meaning that Hillary's average lead in NJ increases from 8.5% to 8.7%.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 159.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%

+2.25% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 32 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!) (shared), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 13.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #376 on: August 12, 2014, 08:58:41 pm »
« Edited: August 12, 2014, 09:04:31 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP, Alaska:


Hillary vs Palin: 46/40 (D +6%)
Hillary vs Huckabee: 39/47 (R +8%)
Hillary vs Bush: 38/47 (R +9%)
Hillary vs Christie: 34/45 (R +11%)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: 36/50 (R +14%)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/alaskans-remain-down-on-palin.html#more


That's a bigger change than the map shows.

Also, Rutgers-Eagleton in New Jersey, with only one binary choice (Christie-Clinton):

Clinton 51%, Christie 40%, rest don't know or someone else.

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/new-wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/release_08-07-14.pdf

No obvious change.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #377 on: August 12, 2014, 09:12:57 pm »


Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Adjusting for Alaska. I ignore Sarah Palin. I also ignore the Gravis poll for Wisconsin because the one binary choice involves Paul Ryan, who has never done well anywhere and is a classic non-choice for the Presidency.



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #378 on: August 13, 2014, 09:23:12 am »

PPP will be polling Kansas and North Carolina this weekend.
Still no word out on whether they tested any match ups in Kentucky last weekend.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #379 on: August 13, 2014, 03:47:08 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2014, 02:50:01 pm by eric82oslo »

Speaking of which, PPP's Kentucky numbers have been released. Smiley It's the 6th 2016 poll from the Bluegrass state and 4th from PPP alone, though its their first this year. Hillary leads Cruz & Christie, while trails Huckabee, Bush and Paul. This was the 1st bluegrass poll to include Mike. Here are her new averages:

Vs Bush: R +4.5% (2 polls)
Vs Huckabee: R +3%
Vs Rand Paul: R +2.8% (6 polls)
Vs Christie: R +0.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: D +4% (2 polls)
Vs Rubio: D +7% (2 polls)

That means Bush expands his Kentucky lead from 4% to 4.5%.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 160.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 13.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #380 on: August 13, 2014, 06:59:08 pm »

PPP, Kentucky.

Paul: 49% --- Clinton: 43%
Bush: 48% --- Clinton 43%
Huckabee: 47% --- Clinton: 44%
Clinton 44% --- Christie 41%
Clinton 46% --- Cruz 41%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/kentucky-miscellany.html

For a state that Republicans have won by margins of 22% (2012), 16% (2008), 20% (2004), and 15% (2000) in the last five Presidential elections, these results show the prospect of a Republican nominee winning Kentucky, but not very impressively. Of course, 3% means the same as 30% in a winner-take-all election... but this bodes ill for a Republican nominee winning such states as Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina. A 6% lead for Rand Paul in Kentucky shows how weak his candidacy would be nationwide.

Oddity: Republicans have not won the Presidency without Kentucky since 1952.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #381 on: August 13, 2014, 07:07:45 pm »
« Edited: August 20, 2014, 07:10:45 am by pbrower2a »



Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

I don't really like to change this map more than once a day, but Kentucky results so compel me. The most recent PPP polls (1) supplant one Gravis poll, and (2) show mixed results with Christie slipping behind Hillary Clinton. Kentucky becomes a legitimate swing state, something that the GOP will be unable to afford. Missouri is more similar to Kentucky than to Arkansas, so Missouri shows up as a legitimate swing state again.



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #382 on: August 20, 2014, 07:12:50 am »
« Edited: August 21, 2014, 06:25:56 am by pbrower2a »

Quote
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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=50582fcd-fbd1-4015-8068-45d66cc1cbf8

This is consistent with Hillary Clinton winning Florida against everyone but Jeb Bush, Jeb possibly winning solely due to the Favorite Son effect.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #383 on: August 20, 2014, 01:31:46 pm »
« Edited: August 20, 2014, 01:41:17 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP, North Carolina.

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 44%

Clinton 46%
Bush 42%

Clinton 47%
Paul 42%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 41%

Clinton 45%
Christie 38%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_8201205.pdf

North Carolina is a must-win state for any Republican nominee. Republicans have not won a Presidential election without North Carolina since 1956, when the South was the most D part of the US and North Carolina was decidedly D at practically every level.

PPP frequently polls North Carolina.

Jesse Helms must be rolling in his grave.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #384 on: August 20, 2014, 04:16:39 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2014, 02:48:57 pm by eric82oslo »

And we have the 12th (!) 2016 poll from North Carolina already, including the 10th from PPP alone. This one has some really great news for Hillary, as she easily beats all opponents sans Huckabee. Hillary's new NC average leads are thus now:

Vs Christie: D +1.6% (10 polls)
Vs Bush: D +2% (10 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +4.2% (6 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.75% (12 polls)
Vs Rubio: D +7%
Vs Cruz: D +8% (4 polls)

Thus Hillary expands her NC lead by 0.4%, up from 1.2% to 1.6%, while Jeb is narrowing in on Christie.

The new Florida poll pitting Romney against Hillary, doesn't change anything in that state. Jeb is still the GOPer to beat there.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 162.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%

+2.3% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 20.
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« Reply #385 on: August 20, 2014, 10:25:28 pm »

If things remain as they are with no Republican making gains against Hillary Clinton, then she wins a minimum of 330 electoral votes and a maximum of 410 electoral votes. 
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« Reply #386 on: August 21, 2014, 06:23:46 am »

Quinnipiac, New York State:

Clinton 60%
Bush 29%

Clinton 61%
Paul 30%

Clinton 54%
Christie 34%

Cuomo 53%
Bush 30%

Cuomo 55%
Paul 31%

Cuomo 47%
Christie 37%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2072


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #387 on: August 21, 2014, 02:32:33 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2014, 02:48:20 pm by eric82oslo »

Today we got the 7th 2016 poll from the grand state of New York. It has some great news for Christie, as he is "only" trailing Hillary by 20% in her adopted home state, far less than other candidates or himself in the past. Here are Hillary's new leads in the Empire State:

Vs Christie: D +24.6% (7 polls)
Vs Bush: D +31%
Vs Rand Paul: D +37% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +37%

This means an improvement of 3.4% for Christie in the state, up from -28% to his current -24.6%. Such a major change obviously affects Clinton nationally as well.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 163.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.4%

+2.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 21.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #388 on: August 22, 2014, 03:24:06 pm »
« Edited: August 22, 2014, 03:28:37 pm by eric82oslo »

PPP has polled Kansas for the 3rd time this 2016 season. Smiley It's their 1st Kansas poll to feature a Ted Cruz match up. Generally, Hillary did considerably better than in February. Here are her new Kansas averages:

Vs Bush: R +7.5% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
Vs Huckabee: R +6% (2 polls)
Vs Christie: R +5.5% (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: R +5.5% (2 polls)
Vs Rubio: R +5%
Vs Cruz: R +1%


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 164.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 22.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #389 on: August 22, 2014, 05:10:34 pm »

PPP, Kansas

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_KS_822424.pdf

(Democratic nominees have lost Kansas in every Presidential election since 1964).


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #390 on: August 31, 2014, 10:38:07 am »

Labor Day weekend. Expect few polls.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #391 on: September 02, 2014, 07:29:55 pm »

We now have the 18th official 2016 poll from the number 1 battleground state of any modern election, Florida, yet the very 2nd one coming from Gravis (they already polled Rubio once in the past). It only tested Hillary against Bush and Rubio. Here are everyone's new Florida averages:

Vs Bush: D +5.5% (13 polls)
Vs Romney: D +7%
Vs Rubio: D +9.9% (14 polls)
Vs Perry: D +10%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.2% (6 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +11.6% (8 polls)
Vs Christie: D +12.1% (7 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +12.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: D +17.8% (5 polls)

Due to Gravis only having Hillary leading Jeb by 2%, her lead against him is reduced by 0.3% in the state, going from 5.8% to her current 5.5%.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 165.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.5%
+4.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 3, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.6%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.5%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 3.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #392 on: September 09, 2014, 11:50:54 am »

PPP has just released new numbers on the Michigan race, and it shows a vast improvement for Hillary, particularily against Christie. Smiley Here are the new Michigan averages:

Vs Christie: D+6.9% (8 polls, improvement of +0.8%)
Vs Paul Ryan: D+7% (2 polls)
Vs Bush: D+10% (5 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D+10.5% (6 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D+12% (3 polls)
Vs Rubio: D+15.5% (2 polls)


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 166.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.5%
+4.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 3, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.6%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.5%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 9.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #393 on: September 09, 2014, 03:03:08 pm »

Michigan, PPP.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/peters-has-biggest-lead-snyder-and-schauer-tight.html#more

Michigan is nowhere close to being close for the 2016 Presidential election.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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eric82oslo
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« Reply #394 on: September 09, 2014, 07:18:49 pm »

PPP is hot as fire today and as a consequence has released its 2nd 2016 poll of the day, this time in Florida. Regardless of pollsters, this happens to be the 19th Florida poll on the 2016 race. It shows a fairly decent result for Bush, and it's certainly not as great news for Hillary as the just released Michigan poll. New averages versus Hillary in Florida now look like this:

Vs Bush: D +5.3% (14 polls, down by 0.2%)
Vs Romney: D +7%
Vs Rubio: D +9.7% (15 polls)
Vs Perry: D +10%
Vs Rand Paul: D +11.2% (9 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.2% (6 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +11.3% (3 polls)
Vs Christie: D +11.6% (8 polls)
Vs Cruz: D +17.3% (6 polls)


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 167.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 10.
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« Reply #395 on: September 10, 2014, 07:17:54 am »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_909704.pdf

Mid-week poll, which could distort things some from the usual weekend poll; it might catch fewer working people than a weekend poll. Not as strong as the recent Q poll (which I did not believe or show in my maps) in Florida, but bad news for all Republicans trying to succeed President Obama.  Jeb Bush, who would probably have been a better President than his brother, would need to win Florida fair-and-square -- especially if Charlie Crist is Governor. He would have a significant edge in Florida over any other possible  R nominee, but most likely not enough of an edge. Hillary Clinton could still be elected President without Florida, but no Republican can be elected President without Florida.   


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #396 on: September 10, 2014, 07:37:09 am »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_909704.pdf

Mid-week poll, which could distort things some from the usual weekend poll; it might catch fewer working people than a weekend poll.

How is Sept. 4th-7th "mid-week"?
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Flake
Flo
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« Reply #397 on: September 10, 2014, 01:55:22 pm »

I really wish the color coding would be consistent.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #398 on: September 10, 2014, 08:46:16 pm »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_909704.pdf

Mid-week poll, which could distort things some from the usual weekend poll; it might catch fewer working people than a weekend poll.

How is Sept. 4th-7th "mid-week"?


Whoops -- not strictly a weekend poll. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #399 on: September 10, 2014, 08:57:59 pm »

I really wish the color coding would be consistent.

Eric and I are measuring different things.

1. He has maps for swings, which I do not have.

2. He is averaging polls; I do not average polls unless the polls are within a week from each other. I normally replace polls with new ones.

3. I reject polls that seem grossly out of line (unless someone corroborates them) and any in which someone  leads with less than 40% of the vote. Thus I have no poll from New Hampshire, the poll that Eric accepted being something like a 38-37 poll.

4. Check the legends on any maps that either of us make.

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