AK-PPP: Begich Looking Good

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

God, I haven't posted a poll in nearly 5 months. I miss 2012

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/begich-leads-likely-challengers-for-reelection.html
Senator Begich is leading all but one challenger in the 2014 Alaska Senate Race; Sean Parnell.
-Indies and GOP support give him a +10% 49/39 Approval Rating.
-His leads against potential challengers range from 6-28 points, and he's near 50 in all matchups.
-Alaskans want Parnell to stay in the Governor's Mansion instead of going to Washington, including 56% of GOPers. And he leads potential Dems by 9-26 points.

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[Lief 🗽]

That's good, because Democrats under-perform their polls in Alaska.

[Obamanation]

Those Miller numbers are truly LOL worthy. Especially for someone who got within 11,000 votes of the US Senate 2 years ago.

[Talleyrand]

Excellent news! These are definitely decent numbers, considering Begich has often been considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents out here. He's still very much in the woods, but now it's abundantly clear he has a clear path to victory. This is something I would now rate Tossup/Tilt D tentatively rather than Tilt R/Lean R, but I'll wait for another poll to get confirmation.

And Lief, I know that's happened in recent cycles, including last year, but in 2008, I think Democrats massively underperformed their polling, but that may have been an outlier resulting from the Palin pick.

[tmthforu94]

That's good, because Democrats under-perform their polls in Alaska.

Since when? The last PPP poll for the 2010 Gubernatorial race had Parnell up by 11 and he ended up winning by 22 points. The Atlas average in the Senate race had McAdams at 27% and he only got 23%.

Republicans will have a lot of ammo to use against him - once name recognition goes up and the GOP starts tying to Begich to Obama, this race will go to toss-up.

[Obamanation]

That's good, because Democrats under-perform their polls in Alaska.

Since when? The last PPP poll for the 2010 Gubernatorial race had Parnell up by 11 and he ended up winning by 22 points. The Atlas average in the Senate race had McAdams at 27% and he only got 23%.

Republicans will have a lot of ammo to use against him - once name recognition goes up and the GOP starts tying to Begich to Obama, this race will go to toss-up.

That's exactly what Lief was saying. The Democrats underperform their polls in Alaska...

Anyway, I don't really see how it's be that hard for Begich. Obama got 41% in 2012 and outperforming by 9% in a state as small as Alaska won't be that hard. Plus, Begich will have massive amounts of money and resources to play with so he will have the advantage. Not saying it won't be close, but he'll probably be fine. Also, it'll be hard to raise his disapprovals by that much especially with Alaska's independent streak (see Murkowski, Lisa).

[Lief 🗽]

That's good, because Democrats under-perform their polls in Alaska.

Since when? The last PPP poll for the 2010 Gubernatorial race had Parnell up by 11 and he ended up winning by 22 points. The Atlas average in the Senate race had McAdams at 27% and he only got 23%.

Huh? The examples you posted support my point.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

That's good, because Democrats under-perform their polls in Alaska.

Since when? The last PPP poll for the 2010 Gubernatorial race had Parnell up by 11 and he ended up winning by 22 points. The Atlas average in the Senate race had McAdams at 27% and he only got 23%.

Republicans will have a lot of ammo to use against him - once name recognition goes up and the GOP starts tying to Begich to Obama, this race will go to toss-up.

Plus, it's a PPP poll, and they WAY overstate Democratic numbers, at least early on.

[Maxwell]

Good news!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

That's good, because Democrats under-perform their polls in Alaska.

Since when? The last PPP poll for the 2010 Gubernatorial race had Parnell up by 11 and he ended up winning by 22 points. The Atlas average in the Senate race had McAdams at 27% and he only got 23%.

Republicans will have a lot of ammo to use against him - once name recognition goes up and the GOP starts tying to Begich to Obama, this race will go to toss-up.

Plus, it's a PPP poll, and they WAY overstate Democratic numbers, at least early on.

We're your absent during all of 2012 and 2010? PPP was one of the most accurate polls and had a GOP bias.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

[wan]

Great news!

[badgate]

I'll be interested in seeing incumbent senators' approvals after the August recess begins. Glad Begich looks good so far!

[Keystone Phil]

I can understand wanting to keep your Governor around but only 10% want him to run for the Senate? Only 13% of Republicans? Yikes.

[tmthforu94]

That's good, because Democrats under-perform their polls in Alaska.

Since when? The last PPP poll for the 2010 Gubernatorial race had Parnell up by 11 and he ended up winning by 22 points. The Atlas average in the Senate race had McAdams at 27% and he only got 23%.

Huh? The examples you posted support my point.

My bad - I misread your statement.

[Miles]

This is also pretty great news from that poll:

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[Talleyrand]

This is also pretty great news from that poll:

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I'm glad my favorite Senate Republican is still doing well.

We need her around in the Senate since she strikes me as one of the few remaining Republican moderates who are genuine, if not the last.