Canadian by-elections, 2013

[trebor204]

Liberal's are holding a 29 point lead in Brandon Souris

Liberal - 59
Conservative - 30

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Liberal-candidate-holds-29-point-lead-in-Brandon-Souris-byelection-poll-233261861.html

[Smid]

So... if there were 443 respondants, but 12 of them were Anna Ross and her son... that would be 433... I think the number Forum needs to actually report is how many unique respondants and calculate their margin of error based on that...

[DL]

The final poll in Toronto Centre points to something brewing - I'm not sure what.

Suddenly Linda McQuaig has surged to 39% while the Liberal Freeland is at 47% (keep in mind that in the 2011 election which was supposed to have been a once in a millennium all time high for the NDP, the Libs won that seat with 41% to the NDP's 30%).

Reading between the lines, McQuaig may be doing better than the poll indicates:

1. Toronto Centre is one of the youngest ridings in Canada with 42% of the electorate under the age of 35...I would say that 80-90% of people in that age group do not have landlines and only have a cell phone. It is impossible to get cell phone numbers by riding - so any "el cheapo" media poll would be only dialling people with LISTED landline numbers. I suspect that the vastly undersampled younger cell phone people would likely skew to the NDP. NB: only 7% of respondents to the Forum poll are 18-34 - even though that age groups actually makes up 42% of the population!

2. The poll asks people how they voted in 2011 and 59% (!!) say they voted Liberals while just 18% say they voted NDP...in reality the Liberals only carried Toronto Centre 41-30% in 2011 - so for whatever reason, Liberal voters are being vastly oversampled in this poll. That being said 31% of people who say they voted Liberal in 2011 now say they will vote NDP - that is a lot of leakage. In contrast people who voted NDP in 2011 are almost unanimously sticking with the NDP.

If the NDP is only 8 points behiond in a polls that seems to have a sample that is so HEAVILY skewed towards 2011 Liberal voters and which totally excludes young people with cell phones...it may actually be a very long night tomorrow night!

[DC Al Fine]

Well if it's prediction time...

Liberals win TC and BS by 5% or less.
Liberals win Bourassa by 30% or so
Tories win Provencher by 20 points.

[Hatman 🍁]

Prediction time?

I'm usually too conservative on these, so I'm going to go out on a whim here for Toronto Centre (more of a hope, than a prediction):


Bourassa: Liberal (+9)
Toronto Centre: NDP surprise (let's say +1?)
Brandon-Souris: Liberal, and it won't even be that close (+25)
Provencher: narrower than expected Tory win (+8)

[RogueBeaver]

Has anyone read Darrell Bricker on Twitter about the Forum poll?

[Hatman 🍁]

BTW since RB hates FR, someone has to post the FR polls!

(Change is from the last election)

Bourassa
Lib: 43 (+2)
NDP: 31 (-1)
BQ: 15 (-1)
Cons: 8 (-1)
Grn: 2 (n/c)

Toronto Centre
Lib: 47 (+6)
NDP: 39 (+9)
Cons: 11 (-12)
Grn: 3 (-2)

Brandon-Souris
Lib: 59 (+54)
Cons: 30 (-34)
NDP: 6 (-19)
Grn: 5 (-1)

Provencher
Cons: 48 (-23)
Lib: 37 (+30)
Grn: 8 (+5)
NDP: 6 (-12)

[Hatman 🍁]

Has anyone read Darrell Bricker on Twitter about the Forum poll?

It's fun watching the pollsters bad mouthing each other.

[Hatman 🍁]

In a small riding like Brandon, it actually makes sense that people are being called multiple times. In fact, FR is probably calling everyone in the riding (I guess that makes it less random?). You have to remember that with IVR, the response rate is horrible. In order to get a good response, you do have to call every landline in the district.

[Citizen Hats]

In a small riding like Brandon, it actually makes sense that people are being called multiple times. In fact, FR is probably calling everyone in the riding (I guess that makes it less random?). You have to remember that with IVR, the response rate is horrible. In order to get a good response, you do have to call every landline in the district.

And I'm sure that the Liberal and Tory HQs are seriously hating on the pollsters right now, because they're probably seriously eating into the effectiveness of their GOTV calls

[Hatman 🍁]

In a small riding like Brandon, it actually makes sense that people are being called multiple times. In fact, FR is probably calling everyone in the riding (I guess that makes it less random?). You have to remember that with IVR, the response rate is horrible. In order to get a good response, you do have to call every landline in the district.

And I'm sure that the Liberal and Tory HQs are seriously hating on the pollsters right now, because they're probably seriously eating into the effectiveness of their GOTV calls

Maybe, but riding residents are probably over inundated with calls anyways during by-elections. At least polling isn't done on E-Day.

Of course, it won't be as bad of an issue in Toronto Centre. All those cell phone only households probably aren't getting that many calls. Especially newer residents. I remember getting absolutely no calls during the Ottawa South by-election. The NDP probably thought I still lived in Ottawa Centre. I still got emails, though.

[Citizen Hats]

I always make sure to keep my address up to date with my partisan friends. 

Though in most data bases, the voter list data is non editable, and you rely on the contacts data for people like that

[cp]

Today's the day!

So where/when can we expect to get results? Can someone link to the elections.ca site (assuming they have something like a live feed)? Which news networks will be providing up-to-date online coverage?

[RogueBeaver]

CBC should have the results, polls close in 4 hours. Here's the EC link.

[King of Kensington]

Looking at the Forum poll for TC and readjusting to reflect the actual vote breakdown in 2011, Linda McQuaig takes it by about 5 points.  Whatever it is, it should be an interesting night!

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking at the Forum poll for TC and readjusting to reflect the actual vote breakdown in 2011, Linda McQuaig takes it by about 5 points.  Whatever it is, it should be an interesting night!

You shouldn't weight by 2011 vote. Who knows how many voters didn't even live in the riding back then. Not to mention people forgetting who they voted for.

[MaxQue]

I always make sure to keep my address up to date with my partisan friends. 

I never, but my party always manage to send me mail wherever I live. It's creepy.

[DL]

Looking at the Forum poll for TC and readjusting to reflect the actual vote breakdown in 2011, Linda McQuaig takes it by about 5 points.  Whatever it is, it should be an interesting night!

You shouldn't weight by 2011 vote. Who knows how many voters didn't even live in the riding back then. Not to mention people forgetting who they voted for.

True, but there is still something very, very, very strange about a supposedly random survey in a riding that went Liberal 41% to NDP 30% two years ago having a recalled vote that is 59% Liberal and just 18% NDP. Recalled vote is never perfect - but i have never seen it off that dramatically. If the NDP can be just 8% behind in a sample that is overwhelmingly Liberal - its not a bad position to be in...though i still don't expect the NDP to actually win.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Perpetual candidate John Turmel is running in Toronto Centre and is listed officially on Elections Canada's web site as John "The Engineer" Turmel. Has he officially changed his name (including quotation marks!), or is one allowed to include a nickname like that on the ballot?

[King of Kensington]

To clarify, I didn't mean to say McQuaig has it in the bag - but it's still remarkable to show how well she does in a sample that is skewed towards older people, Liberals and high-income voters.  Some people may not remember or mistakenly reference their vote in the provincial election etc.  My guess it will be tight and the Tories will be fighting to get their deposit back.  The high number of 45+ people suggests that the number of "transient" people in the sample is relatively low.  We also don't know about likelihood to vote, enthusiasm for their candidate etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

Perpetual candidate John Turmel is running in Toronto Centre and is listed officially on Elections Canada's web site as John "The Engineer" Turmel. Has he officially changed his name (including quotation marks!), or is one allowed to include a nickname like that on the ballot?

Not sure. AFAIK, you can put whatever you want on the ballot (I suppose, within reason). I've seen strange things on ballots before, but it's too rare to be tolerated all the time.

Who here has had the honour of voting in an election with him on the ballot? I can say I have, in the August by-election here

Looking at the Forum poll for TC and readjusting to reflect the actual vote breakdown in 2011, Linda McQuaig takes it by about 5 points.  Whatever it is, it should be an interesting night!

You shouldn't weight by 2011 vote. Who knows how many voters didn't even live in the riding back then. Not to mention people forgetting who they voted for.

True, but there is still something very, very, very strange about a supposedly random survey in a riding that went Liberal 41% to NDP 30% two years ago having a recalled vote that is 59% Liberal and just 18% NDP. Recalled vote is never perfect - but i have never seen it off that dramatically. If the NDP can be just 8% behind in a sample that is overwhelmingly Liberal - its not a bad position to be in...though i still don't expect the NDP to actually win.

Well, I think the obvious answer is those NDP voters don't have landlines and whatnot. We'll see tomorrow if all the hullabaloo about cell phone only households stands true.

[Smid]

Early results in TC will, I suspect, have a pro-NDP bias, given that any randomly selected poll (such as the first to report) is probably going to be more likely to vote NDP, given the geographic concentration of Liberal votes in fewer polls.

[RogueBeaver]

Den Tandt saying on Twitter that his sources indicate Tory trouble in Brandon.

[MaxQue]

Den Tandt saying on Twitter that his sources indicate Tory trouble in Brandon.

Well, I think it's clear than Liberals will win proper Brandon. The question is whether Brandon will outvote rural areas or if rural areas will outvote Brandon.

[Poirot]

Looking at the Forum poll for TC and readjusting to reflect the actual vote breakdown in 2011, Linda McQuaig takes it by about 5 points.  Whatever it is, it should be an interesting night!

You shouldn't weight by 2011 vote. Who knows how many voters didn't even live in the riding back then. Not to mention people forgetting who they voted for.

True, but there is still something very, very, very strange about a supposedly random survey in a riding that went Liberal 41% to NDP 30% two years ago having a recalled vote that is 59% Liberal and just 18% NDP. Recalled vote is never perfect - but i have never seen it off that dramatically. If the NDP can be just 8% behind in a sample that is overwhelmingly Liberal - its not a bad position to be in...though i still don't expect the NDP to actually win.

Recalling for who you voted last election is not always easy. I am not sure for who I voted last federal election.

If less people recall voting NDP in Bourassa than reality, it could reflect in part loyalty to a party and identification to a party at the moment. There are way more people who vote Liberal, usually vote Liberal there. The NDP doesn't have a solid base of loyal voters. Last time there was a wave and many people voted NDP for the first time so they don't remember voting NDP could be the interpretation of the poll.