Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm surprised that Penashue did as well as he did in Nunatsiavut considering his opponent was Inuit Metis.

[Hatman 🍁]

For fun, if Labrador had a territorial assembly the same size as the other three territories (19 seats), the breakdown based on the 2011 results would be

Conservatives: 8
Liberals: 6
NDP: 5

These are based on a proposed map I have just thought of. These would be the ridings:

Nain
Nunatsiavut South
Natuashish
Sheshatshiu
Wabush
Labrador City Centre
Labrador City-Harrie Lake
Labrador City-Tanya Lake
Labrador City-Little Wabush Lake
Labrador City -Beverley Lake
Happy Valley-Goose Bay North
Goose Bay
Happy Valley West
Happy Valley Centre
Happy Valley East
Straits
East Coast
Cartwright-Charlottetown
North West River-Churchill Falls

[DC Al Fine]

Hatman, when you say your assembly is based off the 2011 results, do you mean federal or provincial?

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman, when you say your assembly is based off the 2011 results, do you mean federal or provincial?

Oops. Federal, of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just looking at the provincial results now, and the Innu were just as Tory friendly:

Combined results of Natuashish and Sheshatshiu

PC: 245 (75.85%)
NDP: 55 (17.0%)
Lib: 23 (7.1%)

Note the huge difference in turnout between the federal and provincial election.

Are the Innu the most Tory friendly Aboriginal group? And here I was thinking it might be the Inuit. Weird!

The Innu community is divided into two provincial ridings (for some reason)
Natuashish is in Torngat Mountains, a Liberal riding that is completely Inuit except for Natuashish. Only one of the Inuit communities (Hopedale) voted Tory. Hopedale also went Tory in the federal election.

Sheshatsiu is in Lake Melville, a Tory riding anyways.

[DL]

I don't know if i would describe the Inuit or the Innu as "Tory-friendly" or unfriendly for that matter. I think people in those communities tend to vote en masse for a candidate who is from that community who is respected and if no one is running who fits that description, they tend not to vote at all. If Penashue had been recruited to run for the Liberals or the NDP, I will bet yu that 99% of the votes he got in the Innu reserves would have voted for him regardless of party.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't know if i would describe the Inuit or the Innu as "Tory-friendly" or unfriendly for that matter. I think people in those communities tend to vote en masse for a candidate who is from that community who is respected and if no one is running who fits that description, they tend not to vote at all. If Penashue had been recruited to run for the Liberals or the NDP, I will bet yu that 99% of the votes he got in the Innu reserves would have voted for him regardless of party.

In the provincial election, the Tories ran an Inuit in Torngat Mountains, and the Innu still voted for her, but the turnout was low.

[ottermax]

I've been doing some research on the Inuit and I cannot understand their voting patterns at all! They have voted for Leona Aglukkaq in Nunavut, and she doesn't seem to have any particular political stances that are very pro-Inuit (at least when first elected); now she is a minister, so I can understand why you would vote for the government.

Essentially aboriginal groups are very dependent on the government, and also are seeking more power, so it really makes little sense to support conservatism, but I'm not Inuit, so I can't pretend to understand.

As for the Innu, could we get more data on how they voted in neighbouring Manicougan where an NPD Innu was elected?

Also data for the Inuit in Nunavik would be fascinating!

[MaxQue]

I don't think Innus and Inuits are Conservatives, I would say they are non-partisan and vote for the candidate.

Aglukkaq was Nunavut's Health Minister when she was elected at federal level and the seat was open. They are VERY pro-incumbent, too.

For data about Innus and Inuits in Quebec, that's coming (Nunavik is in my riding, so, I really ought to know).

[MaxQue]

Innus:
Manicouagan: (NDP candidate was Innu from Usahat, Liberal candidate was disendorsed by the party after anti-Innus comments, Bloc incumbent)

Betsiamites (Pessamit):
NDP: 372 (95.9%)
Lib: 7 (1.8%)
Bloc: 6 (1.5%)
Cons: 3 (0.8%)

Mingan (Ekuantshit) :  Can’t be counted, in same precinct than Longue-Pointe-de-Mingan, a white town.

Matimekosh-Lac-John:
NDP: 9 (90.0%)
Bloc: 1 (10.0%)

Kawawachikamach (Naskapi, as Natuashish in Labrador):
Lib: 41 (64.1%)
NDP: 20 (31.3%)
Bloc: 2 (3.1%)
Green : 1 (1.6%)

Natashquan :
NDP: 143 (87.2%)
Lib: 17 (10.4%)
Bloc: 2 (1.2%)
Cons: 2 (1.2%)

Pakuashipi :
NDP: 108 (96.4%)
Lib: 3 (2.7%)
Cons: 1 (0.9%)

La Romaine (Unamenshipit) :
NDP: 102 (61.8%)
Lib: 32 (19.4%)
Bloc: 15 (9.1%)
Cons: 12 (7.2%)
Green : 4 (2.4%)

Maliotenam:
NDP: 277 (96.5%)
Lib: 4 (1.4%)
Cons: 3 (1.0%)
Bloc: 2 (0.7%)
Green : 1 (0.3%)

Uashat:
NDP: 75 (93.8%)
Cons: 3 (3.8%)
Bloc: 2 (2.5%)

Total :
NDP: 1106 (87.1%)
Lib: 104 (8.2%)
Bloc: 30 (2.4%)
Cons: 24 (1.9%)
Green : 6 (0.5%)

Mashteuiatsh (in Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean riding, incumbent Conservative minister reelected):
NDP: 115 (41.8%)
Cons: 95 (34.5%)
Bloc: 51 (18.5%)
Lib : 8 (2.9%)
Green : 6 (2.2%)

[MaxQue]

Inuits in Nunavik (All Nunavik minus Whapmagoostui, green candidate was Inuit, NDP was Cree, Bloc was incumbent):
NDP: 797 (30.1%)
Green: 752 (28.4%)
Lib: 572 (21.6%)
Cons: 327 (12.4%)
Bloc : 197 (7.4%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, I thought the Greens had won Nunavik, but Saganash managed to pull it off. I guess Romeo did some campaigning up there?

There is also an Inuit part of the NWT (Inuvialuit).

[MaxQue]

Wow, I thought the Greens had won Nunavik, but Saganash managed to pull it off. I guess Romeo did some campaigning up there?

There is also an Inuit part of the NWT (Inuvialuit).

I can't remember, but it's pretty complicated and expensive to go there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Despite being in an NDP riding, the Inuit in the NWT (Inuvialuit) voted Tory as well, winning a plurality of the vote (45.8%) to the NDP's 37.0%.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yvonne Jones is running; Todd Russell hasn't made a decision yet.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Federally the Conservative vote in the Innu communities in Labrador was also minuscule in 2008.

[Hatman 🍁]

Provincial By-election called in Kent, NB for April 15. Former Liberal Premier Shawn Graham resigned last week. 

[RogueBeaver]

NDP nomination meeting for Labrador will be held this Sunday. Candidates are Mike Goosney and Harry Borlase. Dippers, you ever heard of these guys? I suspect that Jones will be the Grit nominee, would she and Russell really run against each other?

[DL]

Goosney is a city councillor in Labrador City and is a pipe fitter and a hockey player etc...

Borlase is a young guy from Goose Bay who seems to have some stellar academic credentials etc... More here

http://harryborlase.wordpress.com/

[Hatman 🍁]

If Goosney wins, then except the NDP to win Labrador West again... but I doubt they will be able to win the riding... but who knows. If the Liberals pick Jones, she will have to fight in HVGB, because she can't increase the Liberal vote much more in her home turf on the south coast. But, I suspect at this point the Liberals have the advantage.

[RogueBeaver]

Greens aren't running a Labrador candidate in the interest of coop. Only got 130 votes last time, so no BFD.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/03/23/the-greens-stand-down-in-labrador/

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh. She wants the NDP to not run a candidate? Is she f*king serious? The Greens and Liberals have been known to make deals before, which makes sense, because those two parties are cut from the same cloth. But to expect social democrats to co-operate with liberals? Ha! Especially since the NDP has a history in at least part of this riding.

[RogueBeaver]

The whole idea is silly, but Murray won't be leader 3 weeks from tomorrow.

[DL]

Seems that Mike Goosney who could be the NDP candidate in Labrador is a big fanatic about singing the national anthem! What the heck, imagine having him in caucus in Ottawa along with musicians like Andrew Cash and Charlie Angus...

http://www.cbc.ca/labradormorning/episodes/2013/01/30/labrador-city-man---loves-to-sing-national-anthem/

[RogueBeaver]

Borlase has been nominated as the Dipper candidate in Labrador. When will the Grits have their nomination meeting? Harper can't call it till Friday earliest, probably waits till after Easter.