Paraguay 2013

[RodPresident]

Paraguay will have elections in 2013 and first news about election is that UNACE's leader Lino Oviedo has died on helicopter crash.

[Famous Mortimer]

Happening April 21.

Most recent poll:

Horacio Cartes (Colorado Party, conservative) 42.7%
Efraín Alegre (Authentic Radical Liberal Party, liberal) 29.2%
Mario Ferreiro (Country Alliance, left-wing but split from Lugo) 9.6%
Lino Oviedo Sánchez (National Union of Ethical Citizens, right-wing populist, candidate replacing his recently dead uncle of a similar name) 6.2%
Anibal Carrillo (Frente Guasú, left-wing, Lugo partisans) 2.7%
Miguel Carrizosa (Beloved Fatherland Party, vague populist party) 0.5%
Lilian Soto (Kuña Pyrenda Movement, sounds like an indigenous based party) 0.2%

Looks like a return to the pre-Lugo party systems of Colorados vs. Liberals.

Additionally, while it may look like the Lugoites have crashed (and they have) it's not quite as bad as it looks when you consider last time they had the backing of the Liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who votes for whom and all that? I know nothing about Paraguay.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm not too sure either.

Historically, it had the classic Latin American division between church/military/landowner backed conservatives (Colorados) and banker/small businessman backed Liberals.

It doesn't appear they had a neat city based rivalry like in Nicaragua, Colombia, Ecuador though.

As far as I can tell, it's left wing cities and right-wing countryside. That is to say, Lugo did better in the cities in the last election.

[Famous Mortimer]

Some interesting family melodrama taking place on the left.

Senator Carlos Filizzola, Interior Minister from 2011-2012, leads the Party for a Country in Solidarity and is backing Lugoite Anibal Carrillo.

His cousin, Senator Rafael Filizzola, Interior Minister from 2008-2011, is leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, which broke away from the Party for a Country in Solidarity. He's the Vice Presidential candidate of the Liberals.

[Famous Mortimer]

Among the other noteworth leftist parties:

The National Encounter, which was a significant third force upon the return of democracy, is backing the liberals.

The Revolutionary Febrerista Party, which traces its legacy back to a short lived left-wing military government in the 30s, is backing Mario Ferreiro.

The Christian Democratic Party is also backing Ferreiro.

Meanwhile, the Communists support Lugo's candidate.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not too sure either.

Historically, it had the classic Latin American division between church/military/landowner backed conservatives (Colorados) and banker/small businessman backed Liberals.

It doesn't appear they had a neat city based rivalry like in Nicaragua, Colombia, Ecuador though.

As far as I can tell, it's left wing cities and right-wing countryside. That is to say, Lugo did better in the cities in the last election.

There's more than one city in Paraguay? That'd be news to me.

[Leftbehind]

Disappointing figures for the Lugo supporters.

[RodPresident]

It's bad that Paraguay hasn't a run-off system. I think that they're only South American country without that in their political system.

[Famous Mortimer]

Does Venezuela?

Argentina has run-offs but with the stupid rule that you only have to win 40% to avoid one. Bolivia has a "run-off" where the Congress gets to decide between the top 2.

[RodPresident]

Venezuela doesn't have run-off too.

[Sir John Johns]

I know very little about Paraguayan politics but as I have nothing else to do yesterday, I made some maps of the 2008 election using the data from Paraguayan Electoral Authority (http://tsje.gov.py) collected on a big pdf file. Map is home-made deriving from a Wikipedia map and color key stolen from Hashemite except the cadet gray I used for Oviedo and for the German-spoken people. There is probably some flaws (I have difficulties in dividing the electoral results into several groups) but I hope this could be helpful to understand something to the messy Paraguayan political life.

First, the presidential results (% of the valid votes)

Fernando Lugo (Christian Democratic Party / Patriotic Alliance for Change) 42.4%
Blanca Ovelar (National Republican Association - Colorado Party) 31.75%
Lino Oviedo (National Union of Ethical Citizens) 22.74%
Pedro Fadul (Beloved Fatherland Movement) 2.44%
three other candidates 0.67%



Secondly, the results for the Senate (% of the valid votes)

Colorado Party 29.07% (15 seats)
Authentic Radical Liberal Party 28.92% (14 seats)
National Union of Ethical Citizens 19.2% (9 seats)
Beloved Fatherland Movement 8.66% (4 seats)
Party for a Country of Solidarity 3.47% (1 seat)
Tekojoja Popular Movement 2.98% (1 seat)
Democratic Progressive Party 2.19% (1 seat)
National Encounter Party 1.19% (no seat)
billions of tiny parties with silly and endless names*: all under 1% (no seats)

There were also elections for the Chamber of the deputies. Maybe I should have a map but I guess that results were basically the same as the Senate. There were also elections for the Mercosur Parliament (I didn't ever know such thing exist).

Lugo's own party didn't run. I have tried to use the colors assigned to the parties by the Electoral Authority, so they are nothing to do with actual ideology. As Lugo's movement was assigned the white color, I used yellow instead.



Results in the department of Boquerón (most western department) are very noticeable: National Encounter Party was at 25.26% while Authentic Radical Liberal Party made a very weak 3.71%. FTR, it's Vic Toews' birthplace       

Some demographical stuff, using the 2002 Census data found at http://celade.eclac.org/cgibin/RpWebEngine.exe/PortalAction?&MODE=MAIN&BASE=CPVPRY2002&MAIN=WebServerMain.inl (found nothing more recent)

I was a bit lazy so I didn't make a map of the Protestant/Evangelical/Western Branch of Paraguayan Reform Presbylutheranism adherents as they are counted under too much different denominations and I have lost too much time adding up the provincial results of the billion of joke parties. I guess you could reconstitute their repartition as I have made maps for all other relevant religions.



And some linguistic maps. Note that this is the first answer to the question what is the languages you're spoke (so, sort of maternal language). Many Paraguayans are bilingual Guaraní/Castilian.



Once more, Boquerón distinguished itself and there are some surprising things like the repartition of Indigenous Religions' believers.

I didn't made a map of non-Guaraní indigenous languages (again, many numbers to add up).

* The winner at that is the Movimiento Nacional Vida Util de Pensionados y Jubilados del IPS (MONAPEJUAM), one of the two pensioners' party – the other was the Partido Jubilados al Poder (Power to Retirees Party).

[Sir John Johns]

I did a little bit of research, and it appears that Paraguayan political class is truly horrible.

Lino Oviedo Sánchez dropped out from the race and concluded an electoral pact with Efraín Alegre. Oviedo Sánchez would apparently become minister of Defense in case of Alegre's victory. Fabiola Oviedo, the daughter of the recently deceased Lino Oviedo, would become minister for Women while current speaker of the Senate Jorge Oviedo Matto (no links with Lino Oviedo) would become Interior minister. However, a faction of Oviedo's party, the UNACE, opposed alliance with Alegre and choose rather to support Cartes.

The agreement between the UNACE and the PLRA was concluded few days after the PLRA-controled government bought lands to the father of Jorge Oviedo Mattos. So, the Colorado Party accused the PLRA to have buy the alliance of the UNACE and an investigation has been opened

On the same time, Horacio Cartes praised Stroessner's dictatorship in an interview to a Chilean newspaper and, most importantly, was accused in a recently published book to have link to drug traffickers. I don't how serious these charges are, but the PLRA had still compared Cartes to Al Capone and said that, unlike Cartes, Al Capone have had the decency to not run for the presidency of his country. Efraín Alegre labeled himself as the candidate who will rid Paraguay of "the Mafias".

Mario Ferreiro (the main leftist candidate) had also declared that, by allying with the "fascist" and "golpista" (putschist) UNACE, Alegre is showing his true colours, and that disgusted electors should now vote for him.

However, polls showed a slight increase in Alegre's vote, with undecided leaning toward Alegre:

Horacio Cartes 37.6%
Efraín Alegre 31.7%
Mario Ferreiro 10.9%
Miguel Carrizosa 3%
undecided 7.3%

Source

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It looks like rather a socialist/social democratic party with strong emphasis on women's rights.
This article said that Soto supported the legalisation of abortion and same-sex marriage. She also considered Efraín Alegre as a "golpista" and seems to have a rather good opinion of both Fernando Lugo and Carlos Filizzola despite the fact they back another candidate.

[Sir John Johns]

Some updates.

Last Thursday, Colorado Party attempted to suspend Jorge Oviedo Matto from his position of speaker of the Senate, as he is involved in a supposedly fraudulous sale of lands to the National Institute of Rural Development and Lands (Indert) in exchange of UNACE's support to Alegre. Oviedo Matto's suspension was also backed by Patria Querida, Frente Guasú, a renegade Liberal and a former deputy from UNACE. However, two Colorado senators defected and the vote to remove Oviedo Matto failed.

Unknown persons shot at the office of the bankruptcy trustee who denounced the land sell. Nobody was injured. Oviedo Matto denied any involvement in the case.

Horacio Cartes expressed his opposition to same-sex marriage, comparing it to "the end of the world". He also described homosexuals as "anormal" and called them "monkeys". He received the support of the bishop of Livieres who said that Cartes is the only candidate defending the family.

Alegre declared that his alliance with the UNACE ensured him the victory, but that Cartes would try to manipulate the election, notably by organizing a staged attack against himself ("autoatentado"). He once again referred to his Colorado opponents as a "Mafia".

I cannot find an article I read which stated that international observers complained about the numerous personal attacks and the lack of constructive proposals.

[Sir John Johns]

It gets worse and worse.

Jorge Oviedo Matto resigned today to "avoid a disastrous precedent" as his removal was foreseen and imminent. There was apparently a sufficient majority in Senate to remove Oviedo Matto as the governing board of the Colorado Party had officially called the senators from the party to vote for the removal.

The new speaker of the Senate is Alfredo Jaeggli, previously the deputy speaker, who was elected during an extraordinary session that lasted less than two minutes (!) Jaeggli is a member of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party and was the only Liberal to vote last week in favour of the removal of Oviedo Matto. He should remained as speaker of the Senate until next June.

Ironically, Jaeggli was previously accused of being himself involved in a fraudulous sale of lands . In 2008, at the end of the presidency of Nicanor Duarte (Colorado Party), he tried to sale lands he didn't even possess to the Ministry of Public Works and Communications. The sale failed as the Ministry discovered that Jaeggli's land titles had been forged. Also, in the meantime, the Fernando Lugo administration took office with Efraín Alegre as new minister of Publics Works and Communications.

Efraín Alegre received the support of the Christian Democratic Party (center left), which supported Lugo in 2008 election. However, some membres of the party disagree and will rather support Mario Ferreiro.

Horacio Cartes is accused of owning a secret bank in the Cook Islands (the article is in English) and using it for money laundering. As the owner of a tobacco company, he is also strongly suspected to be involved in tobacco smuggling.

To add to that, both Cartes' and Alegre's sides claim that their leader will win the election and even give the number of votes they will receive.

[Zanas]

Paraguay is dangerously crumbling to a French level of corruption and political mayhem...

[Famous Mortimer]

It gets worse and worse.

Jorge Oviedo Matto resigned today to "avoid a disastrous precedent" as his removal was foreseen and imminent. There was apparently a sufficient majority in Senate to remove Oviedo Matto as the governing board of the Colorado Party had officially called the senators from the party to vote for the removal.

The new speaker of the Senate is Alfredo Jaeggli, previously the deputy speaker, who was elected during an extraordinary session that lasted less than two minutes (!) Jaeggli is a member of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party and was the only Liberal to vote last week in favour of the removal of Oviedo Matto. He should remained as speaker of the Senate until next June.

Ironically, Jaeggli was previously accused of being himself involved in a fraudulous sale of lands . In 2008, at the end of the presidency of Nicanor Duarte (Colorado Party), he tried to sale lands he didn't even possess to the Ministry of Public Works and Communications. The sale failed as the Ministry discovered that Jaeggli's land titles had been forged. Also, in the meantime, the Fernando Lugo administration took office with Efraín Alegre as new minister of Publics Works and Communications.

Efraín Alegre received the support of the Christian Democratic Party (center left), which supported Lugo in 2008 election. However, some membres of the party disagree and will rather support Mario Ferreiro.

Horacio Cartes is accused of owning a secret bank in the Cook Islands (the article is in English) and using it for money laundering. As the owner of a tobacco company, he is also strongly suspected to be involved in tobacco smuggling.

To add to that, both Cartes' and Alegre's sides claim that their leader will win the election and even give the number of votes they will receive.

So a pro-Liberal Colorado resigned and was replaced with a pro-Colorado Liberal?

[Sir John Johns]

Paraguay is dangerously crumbling to a French level of corruption and political mayhem...

So a pro-Liberal Colorado resigned and was replaced with a pro-Colorado Liberal?

No, a pro-Liberal Oviedist (member of the UNACE, the personal vehicule of the deceased Lino Oviedo) was replaced with a pro-Colorado Liberal.

Speaking of pro-Colorado Liberals, several members of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA) are now accusing Efraín Alegre of fraud while he was minister of Public Works and Communications (this just never stops). He then paid 3,383,768,628 guaraníes (no typo in the number, it's just that the guaraní is worthless) for public works that never took place. The Ministry failed to get the money back as the amount had been paid without a bank guarantee.

There is an article about the various cases of corruption in which either Alegre or Cartes are involved. Beside of the mismanagement of the Ministry of Public Works, Alegre is accused to have used the funds allocated to manage the Yacyretá Dam to finance his own campaign tour.

For his part, Cartes was jailed for divert money from the state under Stroessner's dictatorship; he forged documents to obtained from the Central Bank of Paraguay the purchase of dollars at preferential rates (officially to import agricultural machinery) and then resell the dollars on the parallel market at a higher exchange rate (more details here and here). Cartes was prosecuted but apparently never tried and the case was dropped in 2008. He also made business with Fahd Jamil, a local mobster, and in 2000 a plane loaded with marijuana and cocaine was seized in front of his propriety.

An article of the New York Times about Cartes' homophic comments.

The best part is:

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rofl

Also, Liberals and Colorado guys came to blows in the city of Itá. The wounded were transported to the hospital where they started again to scuffle because the nurses cared about a Colorado supporter at first.

[Sir John Johns]

Crazy scandal of the day (Paraguay is an awesome country): Colorado Senator Silvio Ovelar, who seek reelection in the department of Caaguazú, was videotapped dealing vote-buying with a local Liberal leader with "authority" over 200 voters. Ovelar offered 100,000 guaraníes for each Colorado vote and for every voter dissuaded from casting a vote for the Liberal candidate.

Ovelar held a press conference and gave a bit confusing explanation that he himself admitted being rather unconvincing. If I understand correctly, he complained to the Prosecutor that Liberal Party ressorted to vote buying in anticipation of next Sunday vote. Ovelar later had intended to denounce the methods of the Liberals by using a hidden camera while negotiating a vote-buying. Before video-tapping the deal, he met with the local Liberal leader and tried to win his trust by making him believe he would actually buy votes. However, the Liberals have been previously warned of Ovelar's plan and have set up their own hidden camera. They then have released the video of the meeting before Ovelar could have trap them. (I hope that's clear)

The Liberal Party lawyers had filed a complaint against Ovelar for vote buying.

In that same department of Caaguazú (apparently a key department in the next election), Mario Ferreiro's party claimed that the Liberal Party offered money to their deputy candidate in exchange of his support to Efraín Alegre's presidential candidacy. Ferreiro dismissed any alliance with the Liberal Party.

Also, a clarification. While Lino Oviedo Sánchez dropped out from the presidential race and now supported Alegre, his name will nevertheless be on the ballot as he is still technically considered as a candidate. The Electoral Authority had already told that an Oviedo Sánchez vote will be not considered as an Alegre vote. Anyways, I supposed that some dumb electors will still vote for the UNACE candidate.

[batmacumba]

Paraguay is dangerously crumbling to a French level of corruption and political mayhem...

Guys, you have absolutely no clue about Paraguay...

Sometimes, It seems that the main reason of its existence is to make us, the other countries around, feel not that sorry for ourselves.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Paraguay is dangerously crumbling to a French level of corruption and political mayhem...

Guys, you have absolutely no clue about Paraguay...

I know Paraguay has the navy!

[batmacumba]

Well, they have (almost) free electricity, at least.

[Zanas]

Paraguay is dangerously crumbling to a French level of corruption and political mayhem...

Guys, you have absolutely no clue about Paraguay...

Sometimes, It seems that the main reason of its existence is to make us, the other countries around, feel not that sorry for ourselves.

You realise it was a joke, right ?

[Sir John Johns]

Silvio Ovelar (Colorado Party) was suspended for two months after his involvement in the vote-buying affair. The vote was unanimous, but Colorado senators were apparently absent.

Newspapers are apparently authorized to disclose exit polls while the vote isn't yet finished. However, they can't give the name of the candidates.

So, here the results (to be taken with caution, especially because I have few confidence in Paraguayan pollsters):

Candidate X 51.2%
Candidate Y 37%
Candidate K 5%
Candidate O 1.9%
Candidate U 1.2%
Candidate M 0.9%
Candidate E 0.3%

According to the foreign press, X is Cartes and Y is Alegre. I guess that K is Ferreiro.

Anyways, the vice president Juan Manuel Morales (Colorado Party) of the Justicia Electoral said in the middle of the day that, by then, "the trend is irreversible" and that "the Liberal Party must he must acknowledge the reality". Alegre replied that he could not recognize the results and that the Liberal Party had lost confidence in Morales. The Ministry of Justice will investigate the case.

The vote take place without major incidents until now, but I fear that things will get worse after the announcement of the results.

[Sir John Johns]

Exit Poll:
Horacio Cartes (Republican National Association - Colorado Party) 50.8%
Efraín Alegre (Authentic Radical Liberal Party) 37%
Mario Ferreiro (Avanza Pais) 5.1%
Aníbal Carrillo (Frente Guasú) 2%
Lino César Oviedo (National Union of Corrupt Politicians Ethical Citizens) 1.5%
Miguel Carrizosa (Beloved Fatherland Movement) 0.9%
Lilian Soto (Kuña Pyrenda Movement) 0.2%
others 0.2%
blank/null 2.3%

Also, Cartes' partisans claim that there is a plot to kill Horacio Cartes.