"Who is running?": your predictions

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I just finished the Rubio entry on my "Who is running?" series in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.0

I think I'm basically done with all the obvious potential 2016ers who've given some hints.  I don't think there's anyone else to add, at least for now.

So now I ask you to go read all seven pages of the thread in order to educate yourself, and then come back here and tell me who *you* think is running for each party's nomination in 2016, based on the hints we have so far.

[Enderman]

For me its Rubio/Martinez, Rubio/Christie, Martinez/Jindal, on the Republican side.  Biden/Clinton, Clinton/Bayh, or Bayh/Clinton on the Democratic side. The Republican predictions are in that order. As for the Democratic side, well, they are not in order.

[bballrox4717]

For me its Rubio/Martinez, Rubio/Christie, Martinez/Jindal, on the Republican side.  Biden/Clinton, Clinton/Bayh, or Bayh/Clinton on the Democratic side. The Republican predictions are in that order. As for the Democratic side, well, they are not in order.

Clinton won't be VP and Bayh is done in politics. I also highly doubt the Republicans place two minorities on the same ticket.

[Mr. Morden]

For me its Rubio/Martinez, Rubio/Christie, Martinez/Jindal, on the Republican side.  Biden/Clinton, Clinton/Bayh, or Bayh/Clinton on the Democratic side. The Republican predictions are in that order. As for the Democratic side, well, they are not in order.

No, I mean who is running for the nominations, not who will *win* the nominations.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, here is my own take on who runs.  Again, evidence largely taken from the "tea leaves" thread, and my own judgment.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton = at least a bit better than 50/50 chance that she runs.  A few months ago, I would have said it was only ~1 in 3 chance, but she's changed her tune from Shermanesque denial to "we'll see".  If she runs, then she likely clears the Democratic field of any serious competition.

If she doesn't run, then...

likely to run: O'Malley, Cuomo, Schweitzer, Biden

somewhat better than 50/50 chance of running: Klobuchar

about 50/50 chance of running: Villaraigosa, Warner

less than 50/50 chance of running: Gillibrand (depends on how she feels about challenging her
own governor), Hickenlooper, Patrick

probably won't run, but worth keeping on the watch list: Dean, Kaine, Markell, Sebelius, Vilsack, Warren

won't run: Booker (but he will be on the VP shortlist), Castro

Republicans

likely to run: Santorum, Jindal, Christie

likely to run, but not *quite* as likely as the above three guys: Rubio, McDonnell

better than 50/50 chance of running: Ryan

about 50/50 chance of running: Morry Taylor

less than 50/50 chance of running: Cruz, Rand Paul (would be in the top category if his Senate seat wasn't up in 2016), Perry

will only run if Paul Ryan doesn't: Walker

probably won't run, but worth keeping on the watch list: Bachmann, Bush, Kasich, Martinez, Pence

won't run: Haley, Huckabee, Huntsman, Palin, Rice, Thune

[Enderman]

I forgot to add Cuimo to there and Christie/Rubio too.

[morgieb]

OK, here is my own take on who runs.  Again, evidence largely taken from the "tea leaves" thread, and my own judgment.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton = at least a bit better than 50/50 chance that she runs.  A few months ago, I would have said it was only ~1 in 3 chance, but she's changed her tune from Shermanesque denial to "we'll see".  If she runs, then she likely clears the Democratic field of any serious competition.

If she doesn't run, then...

likely to run: O'Malley, Cuomo, Schweitzer, Biden

somewhat better than 50/50 chance of running: Klobuchar

about 50/50 chance of running: Villaraigosa, Warner

less than 50/50 chance of running: Gillibrand (depends on how she feels about challenging her own governor), Hickenlooper, Patrick

probably won't run, but worth keeping on the watch list: Dean, Kaine, Markell, Sebelius, Vilsack, Warren

won't run: Booker (but he will be on the VP shortlist), Castro

Republicans

likely to run: Santorum, Jindal, Christie

likely to run, but not *quite* as likely as the above three guys: Rubio, McDonnell

better than 50/50 chance of running: Ryan

about 50/50 chance of running: Morry Taylor

less than 50/50 chance of running: Cruz, Rand Paul (would be in the top category if his Senate seat wasn't up in 2016), Perry

will only run if Paul Ryan doesn't: Walker

probably won't run, but worth keeping on the watch list: Bachmann, Bush, Kasich, Martinez, Pence

won't run: Haley, Huckabee, Huntsman, Palin, Rice, Thune

Good list. I'll say...

Democratic:

Clinton: Democratic field probably rests on her. If she runs, then only a couple of others will, maybe those looking for name recognition. I'll say it's more likely than not due to her change of tune post-SOS, but I'll leave some room due to her health issues.

Cuomo: Will run if Clinton doesn't run, but will bow out if she does. Simply put, his main advantage is money, and surely he realises that.

Biden: Basically see what I said about Cuomo, except his problem is White House support rather than money.

O'Malley: One of the few candidates that might still run if Hillary does, in part because he's more of an outsider in politics. His interest is very obvious.

Schweitzer: Read O'Malley, although he said he won't run if Hillary does. I think he runs if he doesn't.

Gillibrand: Will be screwed because at least one of Hillary and Cuomo runs, and Gillibrand comes from the same state as them.

Klobuchar: I think she'll run if Hillary doesn't. Of course, any women who's thinking about running won't if Hillary does.

Warner: Hard to say..he's not being talked about much.

Villigasoria: It sounds like he's running, but I don't understand why. Particularly given he hasn't achieved a proper office yet.

Hickenlooper: Dunno, I feel he taps into too similar of a base to several other candidates (Schweitzer, O'Malley) so he'll probably say no.

Patrick: Hard to say. I think he might do it though.

Warren: The Kossites will try (among with other progressive groups) but I don't think she does it, not sounding that interested.

Dean: I reckon he's more likely to do it if Clinton runs, as he strikes me as less of a fan of that wing of the Democratic party. A long-shot though.

Kaine: Plausible if Warner doesn't and at least good Veep potential.

Sebelius: Long-shot, but is on her last chance and could also be attractive if Obamacare works. I've seen more far-fetched candidates.

Republican:

Christie: Will run.

Rubio: Will run.

Santorum: Will run.

Jindal: Will run.

McDonnell: Don't really know, if he does I don't see him making it to the primaries.

Ryan: Maybe. I think he might be happy with his current power though.

Taylor: Hasn't he already announced? The big question is whether he gets attention.

Cruz: I think he runs. Certainly, he's trying to stay relevant.

Rand Paul: Will run if the primary dates for the Senate were further away. As it is though it'll depend on how he's sitting.

Perry: Sounding like he intends to run. However, it depends on whether he can survive re-election.

Walker: Might get drafted ala Perry if some candidates don't run, but like Perry, it depends on re-election.

Bush: Very possible I feel, but it's less likely if Rubio jumps in.

Martinez: Tea leaves say no, despite what others think.

Bachmann: Maybe if the field gets emptier but there are better choices.

Pence: What is the filing deadline for the Indiana governor race? If it's later then he may well run, but if it's earlier than probably not.

Huntsman: Has burnt too many bridges in the party, plus Christie is already running on the bi-partisan tag. If Christie said no though I could see him running.

Rice: Won't run. She's not a politician.

The others that Morden said won't run and/or should be ignored. Is there anyone that I should mention or one of us have missed?

[ShadowRocket]

GOP:

Christie
Rubio
Ryan
Santorum
Paul
Perry
Jindal
McDonnell

Dems:

Hillary
O'Malley
Villargosa

[tmthforu94]

Unless it has changed from 2010, it's the second week in February, so a Pence run is plausible.

[Mr. Morden]

Unless it has changed from 2010, it's the second week in February, so a Pence run is plausible.

How does that make it plausible?  The second week of February would be when the primaries are still in the early stages, before Super Tuesday.  If the second week of Feb. is the filing deadline for Pence to run for reelection, then he'll presumably have to choose between running for reelection as gov. or running for prez, not both.

So then the question is, does Pence really care about being governor, as an end in itself?  Or is he just using the governorship as a stepping stone to the presidency?  Given his waffling over what office to run for back in 2011/2012, I think there's a decent chance that it's the latter.  But I still have him fairly low on my list of possible candidates, simply because he hasn't dropped many hints in quite a while, unlike some of the others.

[NHI]

Republicans:
Likely: Christie, Rubio, Jindal, McDonnell, Martinez
Possibly: Paul, Pence, Ryan, Bush, Santorum, Cruz

Democrats:
It all depends on Hillary.
If she doesn't run: Biden, Cuomo, O'Malley, Schweitzer, Patrick, Kaine, Klobuchar, Warren, Hickenlooper are all possibilities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cuomo and Schweizer leads the Dems
Ryan and Christie leads the GOP

[tmthforu94]

Unless it has changed from 2010, it's the second week in February, so a Pence run is plausible.

How does that make it plausible?  The second week of February would be when the primaries are still in the early stages, before Super Tuesday.  If the second week of Feb. is the filing deadline for Pence to run for reelection, then he'll presumably have to choose between running for reelection as gov. or running for prez, not both.

So then the question is, does Pence really care about being governor, as an end in itself?  Or is he just using the governorship as a stepping stone to the presidency?  Given his waffling over what office to run for back in 2011/2012, I think there's a decent chance that it's the latter.  But I still have him fairly low on my list of possible candidates, simply because he hasn't dropped many hints in quite a while, unlike some of the others.

Well, you're right on the waffling - Pence was at one point leaning towards a Presidential run, which prompted Lt. Governor Skillman to make plans to run for Governor. Then Pence abruptly changed his mind, scaring Skillman out of the race (unfortunate, as she would have been an outstanding Governor). So despite the Hoosier rhetoric, I do think he has a strong interest in running for President.

Why I said both are conceivable is that I could see him being a guy who throws all his eggs in one basket - Iowa. While I don't know the schedule yet, I'm assuming that's going to be in mid-January or so. I don't see him being a big-time national candidate to start off - I think he's going to plan to use Iowa as a springboard to the nomination, somewhat similar to Huckabee (although obviously with the hopes of being more successful). By the time IA, NH, and SC conclude, he should have a good idea on whether or not he has a serious shot. If he does well in the leadoff states, he'll stay in and forgo a second term (perhaps using VP or 2020 as a backup if he loses). If he doesn't do well, he'll jump back into the Governor's race. Just my thoughts.

[Mr. Morden]

I would now downgrade Ryan's chances of running slightly (and correspondingly increase the chances of Walker running), based on the recent leaks from people in his orbit:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3614633#msg3614633

So the only people on the GOP side who I'd now say have a greater than 50/50 chance of running are Christie, Jindal, Santorum, McDonnell, and Rubio.

Paul's the one I'm really uncertain about.  I can't get a good read on how much he cares about staying in the Senate.