Australia - 7 September 2013

[Platypus]

The only comment I'll make (other than nicely done) is that Eden-Monaro is not going to flip. The Queanbeyan area is not going to swing the the Liberals, and even if the rest of the electorate does, Kelly is particularly popular and will keep it a low swing, and low enough not to overcome the Queanbeyan voting block.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Eden-Monaro is not flipping... but great work all around.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Eden-Monaro is not flipping... but great work all around.

Do you think the Coalition will win Polnut? Because if you do, and Labor hold Eden-Monaro, its perfect bellwether record since 1972 will be broken! Maybe Lindsay and Robertson are more reliable bellwethers nowadays...

[Talleyrand]

Some more from Galaxy-

Brand (52-48 ALP)
Griffith (54-46 ALP)
Blair (50-50)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Eden-Monaro is not flipping... but great work all around.

Do you think the Coalition will win Polnut? Because if you do, and Labor hold Eden-Monaro, its perfect bellwether record since 1972 will be broken! Maybe Lindsay and Robertson are more reliable bellwethers nowadays...

I've been on the record since the beginning of the campaign that the Coalition would win (however sick the idea of Abbott and Hockey being in charge makes me)...

The INTERESTING thing for me will be a) will Dobell and Robertson split? b) will Abbott break the tradition of being behind on preferred PM and still win?

I'm going to put out my final predictions on Friday... thanks to robopolling and QLD in general, it's going to be trickier than people realise.

[Platypus]

One week out prediction:

Western Australia

Brand: Gary Gray, ALP
Canning: Don Randall, LIB
Cowan: Luke Simpkins, LIB
Curtin: Julie Bishop, LIB
Durack: Melissa Price, LIB (new member, and one to watch)
Forrest: Nola Marino, LIB
Fremantle: Melissa Parke, ALP
Hasluck: Ken Wyatt, LIB
Moore: Ian Goodenough, LIB (new member)
O'Connor: Rick Wilson, LIB* (new member)
Pearce: Christian Porter, LIB (new member, and one to watch)
Perth: Alannah MacTiernan, ALP (new member)
Tangney: Dennis Jensen, LIB
Stirling: Michael Keenan, LIB
Swan: Steve Irons, LIB

Change: 1 WA Nationals seat to Liberals.

Seats to watch: Brand, Durack, Hasluck, O'Connor, Perth, Swan.

Northern Territory

Lingiari: Warren Snowdon, ALP
Solomon: Natasha Griggs, CLP

Change: 0 seats

Seats to watch: Lingiari, Solomon

South Australia

Adelaide: Kate Ellis, ALP
Barker: Tony Pasin, LIB (new member)
Boothby: Andrew Southcott, LIB
Grey: Rowan Ramsey, LIB
Hindmarsh: Steve Georganas, ALP
Kingston: Amanda Rishworth, ALP
Makin: Tony Zappia, ALP
Mayo: Jamie Briggs, LIB
Port Adelaide: Mark Butler, ALP
Sturt: Christopher Pyne, LIB
Wakefield: Nick Champion, ALP

Change: 0 seats

Seats to watch: Adelaide, Boothby, Hindmarsh, Makin, Sturt, Wakefield

Tasmania

Bass: Andrew Nikolic, LIB (win from ALP)
Braddon: Sid Sidebottom, ALP
Denison: Andrew Wilkie, IND
Franklin: Julie Collins, ALP
Lyons: Dick Adams, ALP

Change: 1 Labor seat to Liberals

Seats to watch: Bass, Braddon, Denison, Lyons

Victoria

Aston: Alan Tudge, LIB
Ballarat: Catherine King, ALP
Batman: David Feeney, ALP (new member)
Bendigo: Lisa Chesters, ALP
Bruce: Alan Griffin, ALP
Calwell: Maria Vamvakinou, ALP
Casey: Tony Smith, LIB
Chisholm: Anna Burke, ALP
Corangamite: Sarah Henderson, LIB (win from ALP)
Corio: Richard Marles, ALP
Deakin: Mike Symon, ALP
Dunkley: Bruce Billson, LIB
Flinders: Greg Hunt, LIB
Gellibrand: Tim Watts, ALP (new member)
Gippsland: Darren Chester, NAT
Goldstein: Andrew Robb, LIB
Gorton: Brendan O'Connor, ALP
Higgins: Kelly O'Dwyer, LIB
Holt: Anthony Byrne, ALP
Hotham: Clare O'Neil, ALP (new member)
Indi: Sophie Mirabella, LIB (TRAGIC)
Isaacs: Mark Dreyfus, ALP
Jagajaga: Jenny Macklin, ALP (BTW, the PUP candidate's name is Kitten Leigh Snape.)
Kooyong: Josh Frydenberg, LIB
LaTrobe: Laura Smyth, ALP
Lalor: Joanne Ryan, ALP
Mallee: Andrew Broad, NAT
Maribyrnong: Bill Shorten, ALP
McEwen: Rob Mitchell, ALP
McMillan: Russell Broadbent, LIB
Melbourne: Cath Bowtell, ALP (win from Greens)
Melbourne Ports: Michael Danby, ALP
Menzies: Kevin Andrews, LIB
Murray: Sharman Stone, LIB
Scullin: Andrew Giles, ALP (new member)
Wannon: Dan Tehan, LIB
Wills: Kelvin Thomson, ALP

Change: Plus 1 Liberal form Labor, Plus 1 Labor from Greens, overall LIB+1, GRN-1

Seats to watch: Aston, Bendigo, Bruce, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Indi, LaTrobe, Mallee, McEwen, Melbourne

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

She won't lose... but the degree of pleasure I'd get from seeing Mirabella struggle is near indescribable...

[Platypus]

New South Wales

Banks: David Coleman, LIB (win from ALP)
Barton: Steve McMahon, ALP (new member)
Bennelong: John Alexander, LIB
Berowra: Phillip Ruddock, LIB
Blaxland: Jason Clare, ALP
Bradfield: Paul Fletcher, LIB
Calare: John Cobb, NAT
Charlton: Pat Conroy, ALP (new member)
Chifley: Ed Husic, ALP
Cook: Scott Morrison, LIB
Cowper: Luke Hartsuyker, NAT
Cunningham: Sharon Bird, ALP
Dobell: Karen McNamara, LIB (win from IND elected as ALP)
Eden-Monaro: Mike Kelly, ALP
Farrer: Sussan Ley, LIB
Fowler: Chris Hayes, ALP
Gilmore: Ann Sudmaris, LIB (new member)
Grayndler: Anthony Albanese, ALP
Greenway: Michelle Rowland, ALP
Hughes: Craig Kelly, LIB
Hume: Angus Taylor, LIB (new member, and one to watch)
Hunter: Joel Fitzgibbon, ALP
Kingsford Smith: Matt Thistlethwaite, ALP (new member)
Lindsay: Fiona Scott, LIB (win from ALP)
Lyne: David Gillespie, NAT (win from IND)
Macarthur: Russell Matheson, LIB
Mackellar: Bronwyn Bishop, LIB
Macquarie: Louise Markus, LIB
McMahon: Chris Bowen, ALP
Mitchell: Alex Hawke, LIB
New England: Barnaby Joyce, NAT (win from IND)
Newcastle: Sharon Claydon, ALP
North Sydney: Joe Hockey, LIB
Page: Janelle Saffin, ALP
Parkes: Mark Coulton, NAT
Parramatta: Julie Owens, ALP
Paterson: Bob Baldwin, LIB
Reid: Craig Laundy, LIB (win from ALP)
Richmond: Justine Elliot, ALP
Riverina: Michael McCormack, NAT
Robertson: Lucy Wicks, LIB (win from ALP)
Shortland: Jill Hall, ALP
Sydney: Tanya Plibersek, ALP
Throsby: Stephen Jones, ALP
Warringah: Tony Abbott, LIB
Watson: Tony Burke, ALP
Wentworth: Malcolm Turnbull, LIB
Werriwa: Laurie Ferguson, ALP

Change: 2 National gains from Independents, 4 Liberal gains from Labor, 1 Liberal gain from an Independent elected as ALP. LIB +5 NAT +2

Seats to watch: Banks, Barton, Bennelong, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macquarie, Page, Parramatta, Reid, Robertson, Werriwa

Australian Capital Territory

Canberra: Gai Brodtmann, ALP
Fraser: Andrew Leigh, ALP

Change: 0 seats

Seats to watch: none (well, maybe the second Senator. I still think Seselja will get it, despite the Sneate calculator )

Queensland

Blair: Shayne Neumann, ALP
Bonner: Ross Vasta, LNP
Bowman: andrew Laming, LNP
Brisbane: Fiona McNamara, ALP (win from LNP)
Capricornia: Peter Freeleagus, ALP (new member)
Dawson: George Christensen, LNP
Dickson: Peter Dutton, LNP
Fadden: Stuart Robert, LNP
Fairfax: Ted O'Brien, LNP (new member)
Fisher: Mal Brough, LNP (gain from Ind, but elected as LNP)
Flynn: Ken O'Dowd, LNP
Forde: Peter Beattie, ALP (win from LNP)
Griffith: Kevin Rudd, ALP
Groom: Ian Macfarlane, LNP
Herbert: Ewen Jones, LNP
Hinkler: Keith Pitt, LNP (new member)
Kennedy: Bob Katter, KAP
Leichhardt: Warren Entsch, LNP
Lilley: Wayne Swan, ALP
Longman: Wyatt Roy, LNP
Maranoa: Bruce Scott, LNP
McPherson: Karen Andrews, LNP
Moncreiff: Steve Ciobo, LNP
Moreton: Graham Perrett, ALP
Oxley: Bernie Rippoll, ALP
Petrie: Yvette D'Ath, ALP
Rankin: Jim Chalmers, ALP (new member, and one to watch)
Ryan: Jane Prentice, LNP
Wide Bay: Warren Truss, LNP
Wright: Scott Buchholz, LNP

Change: Labor gain two from the LNP, LNP win back Fisher. ALP+2

Seats to watch: Blair, Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Longman, Moreton, Petrie.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

...and leaving the potential train-wreck for last

We're kind of on par... except you're more optimistic about VIC and TAS than I am, but less optimistic than I am about QLD, NT and WA

[morgieb]

One to watch = rising stars?

[Platypus]

morgieB: Yep. Angus Taylor in Hume, for example, is set to be a superstar if he wants to be.

TOTALS:

WA

Coalition: 12
Labor: 3

NT

Coalition: 1
Labor: 1

SA

Coalition: 5
Labor: 6

TAS:

Coalition: 1
Labor: 3
Independent: 1

VIC:

Coalition: 15
Labor: 22

NSW:

Coalition: 27
Labor: 21

ACT:

Coalition: 0
Labor: 2

QLD:

Coalition: 19
Labor: 10
Katter's Australian Party: 1

National:

Coalition: 80
Labor: 68
Katter's Australian Party: 1
Independent: 1

[YL]

A question about the Senate preferences: some groups (for example Nick Xenophon in South Australia) have two or more tickets; do voters get to choose between them or are the votes simply split?

[minionofmidas]

Insane as it sounds, it's the latter

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[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Has anyone else got their Clive Palmer DVD in the mail? Got mine today, seems like he has some decent policies, although he wouldn't be my first preference:

1. Liberal Party of Australia
2. Natonal Party of Australia
3. Family First
4. Liberty and Democracy Party
5. Shooters and Fishers Party
6. Christian Democrats
7. Palmer United Party

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I doubt I'll get one...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looks like Newspoll has shifted back to the LNP...

[Smid]

I haven't received one. I think I might email the party and ask for one, though. Historic, posterity, and all that.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I doubt I'll get one...

I haven't received one. I think I might email the party and ask for one, though. Historic, posterity, and all that.

Might be a WA specific campaigning strategy, it was in the junk mail when I checked my letterbox today.

[RogueBeaver]

Polnut, where did you hear about Newspoll? I can't find anything from the Ghost or PVO on Twitter...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Paul Murray and Chris Kenny twitter

[Smid]

I doubt I'll get one...

I haven't received one. I think I might email the party and ask for one, though. Historic, posterity, and all that.

Might be a WA specific campaigning strategy, it was in the junk mail when I checked my letterbox today.

I heard he sent out 4 million, but i don't know if they were electorate-specific. I also heard they were manufactured in China, despite one of the promises in them to be "we need to employ Australians to make more stuff in Australia"...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Was there anything his campaign had made locally?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I doubt I'll get one...

I haven't received one. I think I might email the party and ask for one, though. Historic, posterity, and all that.

Might be a WA specific campaigning strategy, it was in the junk mail when I checked my letterbox today.

I heard he sent out 4 million, but i don't know if they were electorate-specific. I also heard they were manufactured in China, despite one of the promises in them to be "we need to employ Australians to make more stuff in Australia"...

I can confirm that both the DVD and its packaging were made in China.

Was there anything his campaign had made locally?

The pamphlet that was also in my letterbox today was made in Australia, Adelaide to be precise.

[RogueBeaver]

Ghost has the latest Newspoll: 54/46 2PP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As expected - but that primary vote is quite suspicious, that's all I'm saying