Australia - 7 September 2013

[Smid]

Today's newspapers are reporting that Abbott is expected today to instruct the Liberal Party to direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens in every seat. Also reporting that Katter and Palmer are close to a deal on preferences.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Today's newspapers are reporting that Abbott is expected today to instruct the Liberal Party to direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens in every seat. Also reporting that Katter and Palmer are close to a deal on preferences.

Abbott announced it this morning... it'll hurt Bandt, but I think Melbourne is a seat where I think people are less likely to follow the how to vote cards.

[Smid]

Today's newspapers are reporting that Abbott is expected today to instruct the Liberal Party to direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens in every seat. Also reporting that Katter and Palmer are close to a deal on preferences.

Abbott announced it this morning... it'll hurt Bandt, but I think Melbourne is a seat where I think people are less likely to follow the how to vote cards.

Antony Green discusses the likely impact of this decision in Melbourne.

[RogueBeaver]

Biffa is still a misogynist douche, this time saying that politics is showbiz for ugly people and that Fiona Nash wouldn't be out of place. "She has no sex appeal."

[RogueBeaver]

"She's a rather plain ordinary-looking woman and Abbott has exaggerated massively to try and win her vote among the blokes."

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Latham's interjections never make anything better...

[Smid]

Latham's interjections never make anything better...

This is true. It became blindingly obvious to all but the ALP, following his "conga line of suckholes" comment.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It sounds strange ... but one of my barometers of what LIV are thinking is the yahoo poll.

Now, I know they're not scientific, but their anti-ALP (especially anti-Gillard) demographic comes through pretty consistently. It is interesting to note that they're split on Abbott's comments about gay marriage and the 'sex appeal' of the candidate for Lindsay as being 'out of line'.

[Hifly]

Newspoll in Robertson and Dobell has the Liberals on top 54-46 2PP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is that for both divisions combined or are the numbers the same for both divisions?

[You kip if you want to...]

Newspoll in Robertson and Dobell has the Liberals on top 54-46 2PP.

That'd basically count the ALP out, even if the national 2PP was 50-50, surely.

[Hifly]

Is that for both divisions combined or are the numbers the same for both divisions?

Both divisions combined, I believe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well that's spectacularly unhelpful then.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well that's spectacularly unhelpful then.

Indeed - look at the internals... then tell me what you think of this.

[Hifly]

Well that's spectacularly unhelpful then.

Indeed - look at the internals... then tell me what you think of this.

Maybe they could be right

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well that's spectacularly unhelpful then.

Indeed - look at the internals... then tell me what you think of this.

Maybe they could be right

That is pretty much counter to what I've been told about those two seats... and consider a 4.5% MoE.

Look, they could be right... but the internals look very off, which is usually my biggest red flag.

[RogueBeaver]

So wait, the internals suggest Lab is doing better in these seats than the public polls?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So wait, the internals suggest Lab is doing better in these seats than the public polls?

I mean the internals within the polling - with Abbott up massively in approvals and as preferred PM...

But on that point, the internals are showing Robertson as lean ALP and Dobell as line-ball. The one point I'd make... if the Libs were up anywhere near 54-46... they wouldn't have wasted time sending Howard there last week.

[Smid]

Single electorate poll, and all other such warnings, but apparently Beattie trails the LNP by a substantial margin in Forde, according to a JWS poll published by the Australian Financial Review. I haven't seen it myself, so I won't make further comment than that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Single electorate poll, and all other such warnings, but apparently Beattie trails the LNP by a substantial margin in Forde, according to a JWS poll published by the Australian Financial Review. I haven't seen it myself, so I won't make further comment than that.

It has it at 54-33% primary in favour of the LNP and 60-40 TPP ... call me a hack, but I call BS

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Either there is a massive shift under the surface that the parties aren't picking up on or these pollsters aren't especially good.

[Hifly]

Single electorate poll, and all other such warnings, but apparently Beattie trails the LNP by a substantial margin in Forde, according to a JWS poll published by the Australian Financial Review. I haven't seen it myself, so I won't make further comment than that.

It has it at 54-33% primary in favour of the LNP and 60-40 TPP ... call me a hack, but I call BS

Well you can't use the "single electorate poll" excuse for this one because another poll has come out today from Lonergan, with a 1160 sample size almost exactly replicating the JWS figures; Van Manen is on 56% and Beattie on 34% on primaries.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is it with your attitude?

[morgieb]

What the hell would cause such a massive switch from Labor to Liberal so quickly?

[morgieb]

If these marginal polls are true...Labor should've stuck with Gillard.