Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd still wait for more polls...but the signs are good that the bounce is sticking with the ALP largely.

I think the media might be waking up to the fact that the biggest single driver of the turn against the ALP was a personal anti-Gillard vote. I know I keep harping on about this.. but to me, preferred PM is the killer number, since the change, Rudd is a full 20 points ahead of where Gillard was and Abbott has dropped 14 points and is two points lower than Gillard was when she was dumped.

Oh and additional numbers...

Satisfaction
Rudd: 43% (+7)
Abbott: 36% (nc)

Dissatisfaction
Rudd: 36% (nc)
Abbott: 56% (nc)


The other thing is that this election could well cost the Greens dearly... they're polling in high-single digits. As a rule, the Greens have consistently received 2-3% less than polling suggests. I've been arguing for a while that 2010 was the Greens high water mark, it was a protest election, which tend to be the ones that see the strongest third-party results. 

[RogueBeaver]

Sept. 21, Aug. 31, Oct. 19 are all possible election dates.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sept 21 makes a lot of sense... the only issue is f'ing with the preliminary finals...

[morgieb]

I wouldn't be happy with a September date because of the footy finals.

But if he goes October it could be seen as too late, whereas August is a little too early.

[morgieb]

So out of the current dates possible:

* August 31 - Pros: not a lot of issues on that date, seen as a good way of ramming home any advantage. Cons: Potentially too early to get any form of incumbency. A similar tactic fell flat for Gillard in 2010.
* September 7 - Cons: too soon to the G20 summit, where Australia is gaining prestige chairmanship. AFL finals.
* September 14 - Cons: clashes with Yom Kippur. AFL and NRL finals.
* September 21 - Pros: Early enough to eliminate uncertainty about election dates. Cons: AFL and NRL finals, though as these are at night it is probably less of a concern than another day.
* September 28 - Cons: AFL Grand Final day. Not going to fly.
* October 5 - Cons: Long weekend, school holidays in many states, NRL Grand Final weekend.
* October 12 - Cons: Bali Bombing anniversary, and would probably harm Rudd's chances of re-election if he put it on this day.
* October 19 - Pros: Gives Rudd time to garner a sense of incumbency, but probably as early as possible without being too late. Cons: Parliament would have to sit again, and it is possible that a constitutional crisis will emerge.
* October 26 - Pros: See October 19.
* November - Cons: Perceived at being too late, and potentially scared of the polls.

Anything I've missed? Anything you disagree with?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the government's commitment to the local government referendum means August is almost certainly out. Which leaves me with the thoughts that it'll be Sept 21 or Oct 19 ... I disagree about a Constitutional crisis, but I think the sheer visuals of having Gillard, Emerson, Garrett, Crean, Windsor and Oakeshott all sitting there is not the best idea.

I think the ONLY reason he brings parliament back is to pass the ETS.

[RogueBeaver]

Green said on Twitter that the long Senate ballots and concerns about informal voting might cause the referendum to be axed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Green said on Twitter that the long Senate ballots and concerns about informal voting might cause the referendum to be axed.

I'd be very surprised... not shocked, but surprised.

[y4t7sds12]

Newspoll State Figures
NSW
ALP 38%
L/NP 43%
GRN 9%
OTH 10%
VIC
ALP 36%
L/NP 41%
GRN 13%
OTH 10%
QLD
ALP 33%
LNP 43%
GRN 9%
OTH 15%
SA
ALP 41%
L/NP 41%
GRN 8%
OTH 10%
WA
ALP 32%
L/NP 46%
GRN 10%
OTH 12%

[Smid]

"Other" in Queensland is going to be interesting... Just how the Katter vs Palmer vote splits. I saw Palmer billboards when I was up there the other week, and a friend who has family working in the mines, was saying Palmer is immensely popular. I don't think "other" has changed in the polls much, so it is likely to be more the movement between the two, and whether they do a preference deal.

[Mr. Morden]

AMR's online poll on the effect of replacing Abbott with Turnbull:

http://www.amr-australia.com.au/asset/cms/AMR_Federal_Poll_10.07.2013.pdf

2PP:
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%

2PP if Turnbull was Liberal leader:
Coalition 57%
Labor 43%

[Tender Branson]

As someone who doesn't follow Australian politics that much, how likely is it that the Liberals swicth their party leader as well ahead of the election ?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd say virtually none, since the coalition is touting their stability.

The latest rumour around Canberra is an election announcement on Sunday (but considering I've heard 4 separate dates in the last three days... take it with a grain of salt).

Also, the Crikey poll bludger poll of polls has the ALP up by 1 TPP with a net gain of 5 seats

[Zanas]

If Labour pulls this out, it would be one of the smartest tactical moves I've seen in a long time !

[You kip if you want to...]

If Labour pulls this out, it would be one of the smartest tactical moves I've seen in a long time !

If Labor pulls this off, it'd be the world's most baffling comeback since Kevin Rudd became Labor leader again, funnily enough.

Tony Abbott: the Neil Kinnock of the Australian right?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Tony Abbott: the Neil Kinnock of the Australian right?

I'd say he's more of the Mona Sahlin of the Australian right.
Neil Kinnock wasn't in any way close to eithers awfullness as potential PMs. 

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

AMR's online poll on the effect of replacing Abbott with Turnbull:

http://www.amr-australia.com.au/asset/cms/AMR_Federal_Poll_10.07.2013.pdf

2PP:
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%

2PP if Turnbull was Liberal leader:
Coalition 57%
Labor 43%

I'm surprised at the results of that poll, the Liberals under Turnbull did considerably worse than the Liberals under Abbott against Rudd Labor, in the period 2008-10.

[RogueBeaver]

AMR's online poll on the effect of replacing Abbott with Turnbull:

http://www.amr-australia.com.au/asset/cms/AMR_Federal_Poll_10.07.2013.pdf

2PP:
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%

2PP if Turnbull was Liberal leader:
Coalition 57%
Labor 43%

I'm surprised at the results of that poll, the Liberals under Turnbull did considerably worse than the Liberals under Abbott against Rudd Labor, in the period 2008-10.

Short memories, plus the media hero out of power and all that jazz. Does Turnbull even have much of a grassroots following outside committed wets?

[You kip if you want to...]

AMR's online poll on the effect of replacing Abbott with Turnbull:

http://www.amr-australia.com.au/asset/cms/AMR_Federal_Poll_10.07.2013.pdf

2PP:
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%

2PP if Turnbull was Liberal leader:
Coalition 57%
Labor 43%

I'm surprised at the results of that poll, the Liberals under Turnbull did considerably worse than the Liberals under Abbott against Rudd Labor, in the period 2008-10.

People don't start listening to oppositions until the government gets unpopular.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kinnock was never popular, but was always an eminently credible PM candidate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

AMR's online poll on the effect of replacing Abbott with Turnbull:

http://www.amr-australia.com.au/asset/cms/AMR_Federal_Poll_10.07.2013.pdf

2PP:
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%

2PP if Turnbull was Liberal leader:
Coalition 57%
Labor 43%

I'm surprised at the results of that poll, the Liberals under Turnbull did considerably worse than the Liberals under Abbott against Rudd Labor, in the period 2008-10.

I don't see why, Turnbull has been the preferred lib leader for 3 years. Plus that was a time when Rudd was still at 65-70% approvals - nothing was getting through.

Turnbull's problem was that he was pragmatic and therefore in this day and age, an ineffective opposition leader. He negotiated with Rudd over stimulus and tried on the CPRS, then Abbott and Minchin destabilised Turnbull presented a contrast, knocked him off (by a single vote) and started the CPRS scare campaign that brought Rudd down... but whatever 'popularity' Abbott has has, has been due to the relative unpopularity of Gillard. People want to like their political leaders, both Abbott (fairly) and Gillard (unfairly) were not liked but Rudd and Turnbull are liked.

[RogueBeaver]

A good ABC article on how Labor's along for the ride, at least on internal matters.

[Talleyrand]

Turnbull, unlike Abbott, seems like a credible Prime Ministerial candidate to many middle Australians, I would wager. He's seen as a reassuring, moderate figure while Abbott has been portrayed (somewhat truthfully) to be an extreme reactionary. That wasn't a huge problem for Abbott as Opposition Leader, as Gillard lost all her clout with the electorate some point in her Prime Ministership, but Rudd still has the voters' ears. Now they may start thinking more about what an Abbott PMship would be like, and I suspect many of them don't particularly fancy the idea. That's probably Rudd's biggest weapon right now and why the polls are close.

[RogueBeaver]

Oh come on. While Turnbull's a smart guy and serious politician, his leadership was a total joke- polled in the teens on PPM and worse than Gillard on 2PP. That's before we get into policy. As for Abbott, where exactly is he uberconservative on policy? Not economically. As for social, not proposing to upset the frontbench consensus on SSM, abortion, guns, capital punishment, etc.  All this said, Rudd's bounce seems a pro-Rudd rather than anti-Abbott reaction- regular honeymoon. No need for the Coalition to stock up on Depends.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh come on. While Turnbull's a smart guy and serious politician, his leadership was a total joke- polled in the teens on PPM and worse than Gillard on 2PP. That's before we get into policy. As for Abbott, where exactly is he uberconservative on policy? Not economically. As for social, not proposing to upset the frontbench consensus on SSM, abortion, guns, capital punishment, etc.  All this said, Rudd's bounce seems a pro-Rudd rather than anti-Abbott reaction- regular honeymoon. No need for the Coalition to stock up on Depends.

You might not be incorrect here, but I think you are... here's why - the collapse of the ALP was driven more by an anti-Gillard vote than any real sense of pro-Abbott. Gillard's removal changed the dynamic.

Just consider a 13% swing in TPP and 34% swing in preferred PM, in a fortnight, most people see this as more than a regular honeymoon. The things I've been reading and hearing from people are "thank God I have a choice now" ... does fact really suggest any real changes in the policies? not really, but this is not what this is about.