Australia - 7 September 2013

[You kip if you want to...]

This is lovely, if you haven't already seen it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBuJtROPaXI

[RogueBeaver]

Fraser acting, well, Fraserish by campaigning with the Greens against a Coalition Senate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Considering Fraser's decades-long support for aid and refugees... and the Coalition's hard right-ward shift since his leadership (on practically everything) - I don't see why he should be smacked around for following his conscience (quite a few moderate Liberals should be doing the same thing).

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd is placing the NSW party under direct federal control, giving Dastyari full power to clean it up-  starting with a new executive. Meanwhile there's a Cabinet debate about the election date, some want August, Rudd wants October/November. Date to be announced today.

[Lurker]

Rudd is placing the NSW party under direct federal control, giving Dastyari full power to clean it up-  starting with a new executive. Meanwhile there's a Cabinet debate about the election date, some want August, Rudd wants October/November. Date to be announced today.

Why does Rudd want this? It seems to me that it would make sense for him to call the election as early as possible, before he (possibly) loses the momentum.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is there a source for the election discussion... I don't doubt that the Cabinet is divided, most people are divided.

But I'd be surprised if he announced at the same time as going to Indonesia for serious talks on a high-profile issue.

[RogueBeaver]

Is there a source for the election discussion... I don't doubt that the Cabinet is divided, most people are divided.

But I'd be surprised if he announced at the same time as going to Indonesia for serious talks on a high-profile issue.

All they said is "expected to be announced today" so I assume background. On one hand, does he want to repeat Gillard's mistake by announcing well before dissolution? On the other, what you said-weird to announce an early election just before leaving on a major diplomatic trip.


Gillard and Swan were apparently in good cheer at the after party. Money quote: "sh**t happens."

[RogueBeaver]

Long Abbott interview.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why does this read like it was written for Hello Magazine? Trust me this has been all over Facebook for the last few days and there's a lot wrong in it.

[Platypus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=YLdsfuDrg0M

I miss Gillard :/

[You kip if you want to...]

I can't help but feel sheer sympathy for Julia.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I can't help but feel sheer sympathy for Julia.

I absolutely do, but as she herself said to her staff "s*#t happens" ... She was leading the ALP to a decade in opposition and handing the Senate over to the Coalition, and sadly so much was down to her personally (before RougeBeaver hops in to remind me about the carbon tax... the background of the 'promise' was at the heart of the public outrage). Looking at the situation more and more a 1975-esque result was definitely on the cards. As much as I admire her ability and talents and like her immensely personally, she had to go.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsECK-gRCGc

Wow. It explains a lot, but not everything as she said.

I sure hope filth like this never meets any female UK leaders. I feel sick.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd being urged by party elders to go further on internal reform, including dilution of union representation. Bowen even wants direct leadership elections, though I doubt that happens anytime soon on either side.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8M0Sf7a34g

New ad from Rudd and the ALP

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's actually a pretty decent ad... considering the last 3 years has been dominated by angst and negativity, it's pretty calming and balanced. The fact that it's not exactly based on fact won't really hurt it.

[RogueBeaver]

It's actually a pretty decent ad... considering the last 3 years has been dominated by angst and negativity, it's pretty calming and balanced. The fact that it's not exactly based on fact won't really hurt it.

In other news, Rudd apparently met PK at his office today. Can only wonder what advice was given. Also wonder which side, if any, he took in the psychodrama.

[You kip if you want to...]

The 'Geek Vs. Hot-head' strategy seems like a viable one.

[jaichind]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8M0Sf7a34g

New ad from Rudd and the ALP

I think this ad and who delivered it is quite ironic given what took place last 3 years.

[jaichind]

Looking at the polls it seems that even given how unpopular Gillard was, Abbot was not able to get a consistent lead over Gillard on the question of who is better PM.  Now that Rudd is back it seems that Abbot is losing by a mile.  It is most likely too late but did not the fact that Abbot was not able to win in 2010 and given the fact that Abbot was not that much more popular than Gillard despite ongoing Labor civil war mean that the Liberals should have thought about dumping Abbot and replacing him with someone more likely to be more popular.  Or were the Liberals sure they would run against Gillard so it does not matter.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Funny thing to note, and I did mention this a couple of times, watch the preferred PM number.

On election day, whichever party's leader has the lead, will win.

1993: Keating led Hewson (despite the ALP being behind)
1996: Howard by a mile
1998: Howard (note the biggest swings to the ALP happened in their own, or notional so, seats, Howard held the swings seats that decided it)
2001: Howard
2004: Howard was clearly ahead of Latham, and while the polling showed a close race or even an ALP lead, the preferred PM number didn't waver much (in fact moved in Howard's favour during the campaign)
2007: Rudd led Howard 48-41
2010: Gillard led Abbott....

So my thinking if the polling is close and Rudd is ahead of Abbott by more than 5 or 6% as preferred PM, the ALP will squeak home with a baby majority or a minority supported by Wilkie and Bandt.

[RogueBeaver]

Looking at the polls it seems that even given how unpopular Gillard was, Abbot was not able to get a consistent lead over Gillard on the question of who is better PM.  Now that Rudd is back it seems that Abbot is losing by a mile.  It is most likely too late but did not the fact that Abbot was not able to win in 2010 and given the fact that Abbot was not that much more popular than Gillard despite ongoing Labor civil war mean that the Liberals should have thought about dumping Abbot and replacing him with someone more likely to be more popular.  Or were the Liberals sure they would run against Gillard so it does not matter.

Oh come on.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looking at the polls it seems that even given how unpopular Gillard was, Abbot was not able to get a consistent lead over Gillard on the question of who is better PM.  Now that Rudd is back it seems that Abbot is losing by a mile.  It is most likely too late but did not the fact that Abbot was not able to win in 2010 and given the fact that Abbot was not that much more popular than Gillard despite ongoing Labor civil war mean that the Liberals should have thought about dumping Abbot and replacing him with someone more likely to be more popular.  Or were the Liberals sure they would run against Gillard so it does not matter.

Oh come on.

The Liberals are in a tricky spot with Abbott, he's a good wrecker, but not a vision guy. That's not a bad thing, politics needs people like that. But there is a risk attached to leaders like that. I think one reason, regardless of where polling might go, to keep Abbott on until the election is to say "we're better than them, we don't flinch when things get tight"...

I don't think anyone can reasonably say that the Coalition were in the position they were in because of superior policies. It was their assuming the small-target strategy that worked in QLD and NSW, focus all of the attention on the government and their problems... as Peter Van Onselen correctly said, "the problem with a small-target strategy, is you need to make sure people don't realise you're doing it"

But FTR, I think Turnbull would crush Rudd.

[RogueBeaver]

There's also the Howard/Beazley '07 precedent- Abbott could trail in PPM for a while but still lead in 2PP. As for vision, that's partly the partywide post-WC scare to run as Generic Liberal... to my knowledge no one's seriously proposed revisiting said decision.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There's also the Howard/Beazley '07 precedent- Abbott could trail in PPM for a while but still lead in 2PP. As for vision, that's partly the partywide post-WC scare to run as Generic Liberal... to my knowledge no one's seriously proposed revisiting said decision.

The problem with that theory is that Rudd took over from Beazley almost a year before the 2007 election, we don't actually know then, which way the PPM would have ended up had Beazley stayed on.

And... that's not a vision.