Australia - 7 September 2013

[MaxQue]

Wouldn't Abbott becoming PM would actually be good for Labor?

[y4t7sds12]

Bill Shorten supports Rudd.

[MaxQue]

Bill Shorten supports Rudd.

Hope it won't hurt him politically. He seemed a good guy when I saw him making a speech in person. He even dared to talk of LGBT rights whne talking of the values of the Labor parties (when it's not clear within Australian Labor Party).

[mattyman]

Bill Shorten supports Rudd.

Ouch thats gotta hurt!

Looks like there will be a new Prime Minister within a few minutes now. So from what I gather if Rudd wins, the numbers for a vote of no confidence wont change? Katter 'supporting' Rudd while Andrew Windsor would pull his support?  

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Gillard is toast.

[Platypus]

http://www.isjuliagillardstillpm.com/

[MaxQue]

How much time this should take?

[Platypus]

Any minute now.

[mattyman]

Sounds like 24th of August is the new date according to Sky News.

[Platypus]

Sky News is reporting rumour as news, take it with a grain of salt, even though it may well be true.

[mattyman]

Apparently 57-45 Rudd wins.

[MaxQue]

57-45 for Rudd, I heard on some life feed.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Oh Kevin Rudd, how I HAVEN'T missed you...

*crosses fingers for August election*

[mattyman]

I for one hope to see the return of Kevin Rudd PM tv series.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nytjGwsri5c

[Mr. Morden]

ABC saying that Swan, Conroy, Ludwig, and Emerson are all leaving Cabinet.

[Mr. Morden]

Anthony Albanese elected Deputy Leader.  Penny Wong elected leader of the Senate.

[jaichind]

Independent MP Tony Windsor says Kevin Rudd cannot count on his support if he is reinstated as Labor leader, in a setback to Mr Rudd's chances of resuming in the top job. Should Mr Rudd lose one more crossbencher's vote from the remaining five, he would not have the support of the Parliament, possibly triggering a constitutional crisis.

[tpfkaw]

From my quick wikipedia perusal, it looks like Rudd said over and over he would never challenge Gillard for the leadership again, in fairly unambiguous language.  How does he spin this?

[RogueBeaver]

Enjoy the winter job.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd has the support of enough crossbenchers to win an NCM. He'll be designated and sworn in within 2-3 days, I'd expect. If an August 24 date then dissolution in a couple of weeks.

[jaichind]

From my quick wikipedia perusal, it looks like Rudd said over and over he would never challenge Gillard for the leadership again, in fairly unambiguous language.  How does he spin this?

It seems what took place is that Gillard learned that Rudd partisans are circulating a petition to remove Gillard for the leadership.  Gillard  decided to strike first before they are ready by calling a once-and-for-all leadership battle right away and called for anyone even thinking about taking the leadership role to contest.  Rudd entered the race and can spin it as Gillard decided to set up a leadership contest and "asked" him to contest so this is not a violation of his promise since he did not actively force this vote (at least on the surface.)

[Smid]

Windsor was playing a game, trying to convince them to not roll the Member for Lalor. His language was ambiguous enough that he'll not be breaking any promises to now support Rudd... "if Labor doesn't sort their mess out, there is possibly a scenario in which I might perhaps back Abbott..." Besides, the "impartial" cousin who was counselling Windsor during his negotiation to pick a side following 2010 was Labor pollster and campaign manager, Bruce Hawker, the same Bruce Hawker who ran Rudd's leadership campaign last year.

[RogueBeaver]

The GG is apparently consulting constitutional experts about what to do next... would she commission Rudd straight-up or require some written documentation of crossbench support before administering the oath?

[Mr. Morden]

The GG is apparently consulting constitutional experts about what to do next... would she commission Rudd straight-up or require some written documentation of crossbench support before administering the oath?

All of the experts I've seen on Australian TV tonight are assuming that she'll end up naming Rudd as PM.  The clincher is that Gillard specifically asked her to name Rudd as PM.  To defy the advice of the outgoing PM on that, when it's less than obvious that anyone else has a majority in the House, well....it seems unlikely.  The path of least resistance is for Bryce to say "OK, the PM is resigning and she's asked me to name Rudd as PM in her place.  So he's PM for now."

Then tomorrow, the opposition moves for a vote of no confidence on Rudd.  If the vote goes against Rudd, then we get an election earlier than expected, but still with Rudd as caretaker PM until the election.  Abbott becoming PM before the election now seems very unlikely to me, given what I've been watching and reading over the last few hours.

[Smid]

My understanding is that Canadian precedent is considered, the King-Byng-fling-thing was apparently considered in legal arguments in 1975.

Abbott not suggesting a no confidence vote for tomorrow. Wilkie, Thomson, Katter(!) lining up behind Rudd, so probably would have the numbers anyway.