Australia - 7 September 2013

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

In today's news, Martin Ferguson, Labor member for Batman and ex-Minister for Resources, will be quitting Parliament at the next election:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/martin-ferguson-to-quit-parliament-at-the-next-election/story-fn59niix-1226653063801

Are the Greens seriously contesting his seat? They didn't do badly last time if I remember correctly.

The Greens will do well here, but I don't think they'll win, largely because:

1. They most likely will not be getting Liberal preferences this time around.
2. The northern half of the seat is too old-school Labor, i.e. bad for the Greens.

[Knives]

Expect swings against the Greens.

[Smid]

In today's news, Martin Ferguson, Labor member for Batman and ex-Minister for Resources, will be quitting Parliament at the next election:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/martin-ferguson-to-quit-parliament-at-the-next-election/story-fn59niix-1226653063801

Are the Greens seriously contesting his seat? They didn't do badly last time if I remember correctly.

The Greens will do well here, but I don't think they'll win, largely because:

1. They most likely will not be getting Liberal preferences this time around.
2. The northern half of the seat is too old-school Labor, i.e. bad for the Greens.

Yeah, it wasn't so much "Greens did great", it was more "Greens did better than Libs in a seat where Libs have never been competitive." It was certainly better than their primary vote averages, but not serious competition, and as my friend notes, the Northern end of the electorate is solid old-school Labor (I think Libs outpoll Greens there, but Greens outpoll Libs in the gentrified Southern end nearer the City, Labor outpolls everyone, everywhere).

[RogueBeaver]

Intra-Liberal turbulence?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Intra-Liberal turbulence?

I won't comment too much as I'm involved in the LG referendum... but on the topic... the Libs think this election is close to a done-deal, they think it's OK to disagree with Abbott on something.

[RogueBeaver]

Hah: Swan and Turnbull are informally floating proposals for Round 2 of the republican wars.

[RogueBeaver]

Hanson will run under the One Nation banner for an NSW Senate seat. Between this and republicanism being informally floated again, definite '90s vibes.

[Smid]

Polnut posted this link elsewhere.

I got quite a chuckle from:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I love how someone who formed and named a political party after themself, and who then had a falling out with said political party and quit from it, can then accuse other parties of being dysfunctional and egotistical.


Edit: Never mind clicking the link, I think it's the same one RB posted.

[RogueBeaver]

Logic has never been her strong suit. While she obviously won't win, curious to see what happens there.

[RogueBeaver]

Green on the Senate battle. If control switches it will be de facto and not de jure.

[y4t7sds12]

Latest Newspoll.....

Primary Vote
ALP 30% (-1%)
L/NP 49% (+3%)
Greens 9% (nc)
Others 12% (-2%)

2PP
LAB 42% (-2%)
L/NP 58% (+2%)

Better PM
Gillard 35% (-4%)
Abbott 43% (+3%)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd be interested to see the next Nielsen poll - I'm not saying this is an outlier, but it is odd to see that kind of swing without any real cause.

I'm certainly of a mind that this is now a damage-minimization exercise. I wish there was some genuine silver lining in an Abbott Government, but I don't. Getting rid of a government I've been DEEPLY disappointed with and replacing it one I can't trust and will push Australia backwards on so many issues, for the sake of shoring up the bogan vote and making miners and polluters happy... awesome. The worst thing? The people who are likely to elect him will be the ones worse off.

I'm already embarrassed ... and before anyone says 'of course you hate him, you're of the left' If Turnbull were leader, I'd be seriously considering voting Liberal for the first time in more than a decade.

[Knives]

This is what I feel as well. The people who live and rely on government support are switching their votes simply because of Abbott's xenophobic messages and the fact that they hate Gillard, I just wish people would stop to think how Abbott will get to a surplus, because I can assure you it won't be by cutting mining subsidies.

[Hifly]

but it is odd to see that kind of swing without any real cause.

Funding reform fail?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

but it is odd to see that kind of swing without any real cause.

Funding reform fail?

That wouldn't have generated much response.

[Knives]

Especially considering it was Abbott who ed up.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd telling caucus to keep it together instead of pantshytting, Doug Cameron tells Gillard to throw away the talking points.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree with Cameron... when I talk to people about Gillard, the perception of her as cold and calculating bares virtually no resemblance to the person I've met. She's warm, funny, considerate... Abbott is actually WORSE a human being than people think... that's not based on politics, that's based on stories I've been told by people in the Liberal Party (including victims of his mouth)...

Gillard is too considerate in her tone and demeanour, she looks contrived and almost mechanical. Gillard in question time when her back's against the wall is MAGNIFICENT... she needed to lose the talking points months ago and just be herself.

[Frodo]

In the unlikely -though not inconceivable- event that PM Julia Gillard pulls a narrow victory out of the jaws of almost certain defeat (or so Conventional Wisdom tells us), would that actually be a blessing-in-disguise for the Liberals?  Could it enable them to continue to make gains in future state elections like what they have accomplished in New South Wales, Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia up to now, beginning with South Australia early next year?  

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it would be long-term, I doubt Abbott could stay on in the event of two straight losses - they'd probably have to move to some kind of moderating force - which would no-doubt help them...

But people are already talking about a Coalition victory somewhere in the range of 90-115 seats... the idea of which makes me feel physically ill.

[RogueBeaver]

It would be a huge blow for the Liberal Party to blow an open goal like this.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It would be a huge blow for the Liberal Party to blow an open goal like this.

Hence why I said 'long-term' ... the Coalition is actually pretty good at getting their act together after losing.

[Hifly]

a Coalition victory somewhere in the range of 90-115 seats... the idea of which makes me feel physically ill.

I think that it's more likely going to be in the upper half of that range.

[Knives]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QNbGc486yTc

This is an incredible shut down of the pro-Liberal bullsh**t that ABC has been spewing our recently. His manner and what he says is spot on, Julia should listen to him.