Why did Obama win Ohio? NE Ohio swung slightly Republican I believe. Was it a high black turnout or something else? Could someone explain?
The overall pattern in Ohio was basically unchanged from 2008. Obama did slightly better than 2008 in urban counties (with swings to him in Franklin (Columbus), Lucas (Toledo), and Cuyahoga (Cleveland) Counties, and only marginal swings against him in Montgomery (Dayton), Hamilton (Cincinnati) and Summit (Akron) Counties). Suburban counties were very stable, with only tiny swings to Romney for the most part (but generally much weaker than nationally), which should not be a surprise given how closely tied they are to urban counties. Rural counties varied--Obama did better in some rural counties in south-central Ohio but worse in some other rural counties, particularly a handful of coal counties in SE Ohio and the uber-Republican German-Catholic counties in west-central Ohio.
Overall, the dynamics in Ohio were not terribly novel. The result looked a lot like past elections, including 2008 and 2004, just with a slight shift to the Democrats from 2004 or a slight shift against them from 2008.
