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Author Topic: Ohio  (Read 4214 times)
a83192
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« on: January 25, 2013, 04:34:53 PM »

Why did Obama win Ohio? NE Ohio swung slightly Republican I believe.  Was it a high black turnout or something else? Could someone explain?
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2013, 04:41:46 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2013, 04:43:48 PM by CountryClassSF »

Obama's campaign was a master at localizing the campaign in each swing state, particularly in Ohio.

Because Mitt was overtly concerned about the flip flopping stuff, he honed in on the same message nationally in every state. In a 21st century campaign, this proved to be a losing strategy either way.

If you take a look at the Ohio page & trends, you'll see leftward tilts in nearly all of the liberal enclaves like Cleveland, Columbus, Toledo, and a few counties in the Northeast in the Mahoning valley.  I attribute this to the turnout operation as well as the fired up progressive/African American factor.

As for the counties that went rightward, I believe many of those counties in the eastern part of the states are what can be considered "coal country" - folks who are directly impacted by the EPA's policy towards coal.

In the other parts of the state that trended D, you'll notice that many of them are somewhat conservative counties in the southern part of the state that McCain outperformed Romney in.
Particularly Ross County.

While Obama had the clear turnout/technical advantage over Romney, I think the locality of the issues mattered a lot.  Exit polls showed that if you agreed with auto bailout or directly benefited from the auto bailout, you were almost uniformally likely to support Obama.

By localizing the issues & demonizing Mitt with the "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" spin that Romney did a terrible job deflecting, it translated into a model that was similar to the 2008 electorate in Ohio.

Despite my opinion that Ohio made a bad choice, I think the voters there saw a different kind of campaign that felt more like a governor's race than a presidential race
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Benj
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2013, 04:52:14 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2013, 04:56:09 PM by Benj »

Why did Obama win Ohio? NE Ohio swung slightly Republican I believe.  Was it a high black turnout or something else? Could someone explain?

The overall pattern in Ohio was basically unchanged from 2008. Obama did slightly better than 2008 in urban counties (with swings to him in Franklin (Columbus), Lucas (Toledo), and Cuyahoga (Cleveland) Counties, and only marginal swings against him in Montgomery (Dayton), Hamilton (Cincinnati) and Summit (Akron) Counties). Suburban counties were very stable, with only tiny swings to Romney for the most part (but generally much weaker than nationally), which should not be a surprise given how closely tied they are to urban counties. Rural counties varied--Obama did better in some rural counties in south-central Ohio but worse in some other rural counties, particularly a handful of coal counties in SE Ohio and the uber-Republican German-Catholic counties in west-central Ohio.

Overall, the dynamics in Ohio were not terribly novel. The result looked a lot like past elections, including 2008 and 2004, just with a slight shift to the Democrats from 2004 or a slight shift against them from 2008.
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memphis
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« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2013, 06:21:16 PM »

Auto bailout.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2013, 06:40:35 PM »

Ohio like much of the Rustbelt is trying to catch up with a world economy that is changing really fast.  Ohio is one of the states where the population has been decreasing.  The people of Ohio obviously don't want to be left behind and Obama's message resonated with them more.  It wasn't just the auto-bailouts but also the extra attention that the stimulus plan brought to emerging industries, electronics and renewable energy, which are very much needed if Ohio wants to become a leader and an attractive destination that people want to move to rather than move out of.  Obama's campaign was very aggressive in Ohio (if I remember correctly he said that Ohio State is his favorite school in the country while giving a speech there).  When you know certain measures are required for your economy to not collapse, and the other guy says "let them go bankrupt" you would probably be a little scared of what would happen if he was elected.
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hopper
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2013, 07:52:44 PM »

Yeah the topic of the auto bailout hurt Romney in Ohio and took Michigan out of play for him.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2013, 08:21:57 PM »

Sherrod brown, workng,class union guy solidified his support from Trumpka and auto unions.
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hopper
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2013, 08:34:44 PM »

Sherrod brown, workng,class union guy solidified his support from Trumpka and auto unions.
Sherrod Brown isn't really that popular in his home state I don't think. I think Obama is more popular on his own in Ohio than Brown is or was a factor in Obama winning the stae. 
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2013, 08:47:22 PM »

Sherrod brown, workng,class union guy solidified his support from Trumpka and auto unions.
Sherrod Brown isn't really that popular in his home state I don't think. I think Obama is more popular on his own in Ohio than Brown is or was a factor in Obama winning the stae. 

You're right.  If anything, Obama helped Brown get re-elected, not the other way around.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2013, 08:55:11 PM »

Sherrod brown, workng,class union guy solidified his support from Trumpka and auto unions.
Sherrod Brown isn't really that popular in his home state I don't think. I think Obama is more popular on his own in Ohio than Brown is or was a factor in Obama winning the stae. 

Interestingly, they almost got the exact same percentage. Brown got 0.12 pts more than Obama, though Obama got more raw votes.
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justfollowingtheelections
unempprof
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2013, 09:03:02 PM »

Sherrod brown, workng,class union guy solidified his support from Trumpka and auto unions.
Sherrod Brown isn't really that popular in his home state I don't think. I think Obama is more popular on his own in Ohio than Brown is or was a factor in Obama winning the stae. 

Interestingly, they almost got the exact same percentage. Brown got 0.12 pts more than Obama, though Obama got more raw votes.

that's why I said, if anything.  Brown's slightly higher percentage has a lot more to do with his opponent who was viewed as an extremist by many in Ohio.
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Siloch
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2013, 09:09:17 PM »

Obama performed better with whites in Ohio than nationwide, because of the auto bailout.

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politicallefty
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« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2013, 02:54:20 AM »

For me, I think the polls set expectations too high and made the end result rather disappointing. I was actually expecting Obama to at least match his 2008 performance in the state, getting around a 5% win in the state.
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memphis
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« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2013, 10:06:49 AM »

Obama performed better with whites in Ohio than nationwide, because of the auto bailout.


The Dems always do better amond whites in the Northern states than nationwide. The South may have something to do with that....
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2013, 01:03:16 PM »

For me, I think the polls set expectations too high and made the end result rather disappointing. I was actually expecting Obama to at least match his 2008 performance in the state, getting around a 5% win in the state.

Yeah, same here. Especially considering Obama overperformed in all other swing States.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2013, 10:01:00 PM »

Obama performed better with whites in Ohio than nationwide, because of the auto bailout.



Republicans tend to rack up huge margins amongst Whites in the South so this skews the results.  In Indiana which is a reliable red state in most elections (2008 was somewhat a fluke), the percentage of whites who voted for Obama was pretty much bang on the national average and slightly better than what Obama got in Virginia and Florida (both states he won).  Gender gap may partially explain as amongst white males Romney won by a landslide in Ohio, while it was much closer amongst white females.  It seemed the gender gap was much larger in the northern states than southern states and I suspect some of the talk on legitimate rape and anti-abortion hurt the GOP amongst female voters.  In fact Steve LaTourette's wife was planning to vote for Romney, but then voted for Obama after the rape comments so I suspect there were other women who had the same issue.
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Ty440
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« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2013, 08:28:06 PM »

pect there were other women who had the same issue.
Obama performed better with whites in Ohio than nationwide, because of the auto bailout.



Republicans tend to rack up huge margins amongst Whites in the South so this skews the results.  In Indiana which is a reliable red state in most elections (2008 was somewhat a fluke), the percentage of whites who voted for Obama was pretty much bang on the national average and slightly better than what Obama got in Virginia and Florida (both states he won).  Gender gap may partially explain as amongst white males Romney won by a landslide in Ohio, while it was much closer amongst white females.  It seemed the gender gap was much larger in the northern states than southern states and I suspect some of the talk on legitimate rape and anti-abortion hurt the GOP amongst female voters.  In fact Steve LaTourette's wife was planning to vote for Romney, but then voted for Obama after the rape comments so I sus

Bingo

2008 Ohio Whites for Obama
White Men      45&
White Women 47%

2012 Ohio Whites for Obama
White Men      36%
White Women 46%


Basically lost nothing 2008-2012 from white women in Ohio

Collapsed By 9% from 2008-2012 from white men in Ohio
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