WV-Harper Polling (R): Shelley Moore Capito (R) leads big

[Tender Branson]

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Shelley Moore Capito or Nick Rahall?

51-32 Capito

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Shelley Moore Capito or Robin Davis?

51-24 Capito

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Shelley Moore Capito or Carte Goodwin?

53-19 Capito

...

Capito: 55-29 favorable

...

Sample Size:  1444
Margin of Error:  +/- 2.58%

The sample is comprised of likely mid-term election voters who have voted in either the 2006 or 2010 elections or have registered to vote since 2010.

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/wv-senate-capito-up-big

http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/crosstabs/west-virginia-statewide-crosstabs.pdf?sfvrsn=0

[Tender Branson]

Capito and Rahall would also lead their primaries:

GOP

If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Shelley Moore Capito or David McKinley?

71-15 Capito

If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for:  Shelley Moore Capito or Patrick Morrisey?

73-10 Capito

...

If the Democratic primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Carte Goodwin, Robin Davis or Nick Rahall?

38-17-8 Rahall

Congressman Nick Rahall would start this race in commanding position.  His lead is fueled by support from his home Third District where he holds a lead of 61% to 14% and 7% over Davis and Goodwin respectively.

Rahall’s next strongest constituency is voters who say Coal and Energy is the state’s top issue.  Rahall beats Davis and Goodwin 49%-16%-8% among them.

Among women, Robin Davis closes the gap between her and Rahall to 14%.  Rahall holds a 28% lead over Davis among men.

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/wv-senate-primaries-capito-rahall-in-command

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/wv-senate-primaries-capito-rahall-in-command

[Tender Branson]

Too bad that Natalie Tennant was not tested.

[Miles]

Yikes.

Lean R-> Likely R.

[DrScholl]

They didn't test Tennant for a reason, she's won big twice statewide and would be the best candidate for the Democrats. This firm is trying to be the Republican version of PPP, but PPP doesn't avoid testing any Republican candidate, no matter how competitive they might be. The firm also promised to release a second part of a Pennsylvania poll, but never did it. Looks like they may be another Rasmussen. But, whatever, time will tell what happens.

[Keystone Phil]

And that "Capito could very well lose the primary!" argument is quickly going down the drain.

[Vosem]

They didn't test Tennant for a reason, she's won big twice statewide and would be the best candidate for the Democrats.

She came in 3rd in the Democratic primary back in 2011, though. And do you really see her doing 20 points better than Rahall, who has after all been around since the 1970s? I didn't think so.

[DrScholl]

Rahall isn't really that much of an entity outside his part of the state. And no, I'm not saying that Tennant would be have a big lead, just that her numbers wouldn't be as low as the candidates they tested. It just seems odd that they didn't test her, usually pollsters test politicians that have won statewide.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Harper Polling is quite Republican, no?

However, this is still lean R.

[old timey villain]

well, looks like the Republicanization of WV continues its steady march

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

And that "Capito could very well lose the primary!" argument is quickly going down the drain.

Murkowski posted dominating leads over Miller in the GOP primary in 2010 up until the election, and then lost in an upset. Two years is an eternity in politics. She is favored, but nothing is guaranteed.

[Miles]

And that "Capito could very well lose the primary!" argument is quickly going down the drain.

Murkowski posted dominating leads over Miller in the GOP primary in 2010 up until the election, and then lost in an upset. Two years is an eternity in politics. She is favored, but nothing is guaranteed.

Also, I don't think anyone knew who Bill Maloney was two years before he upset Betty Ireland

[Maxwell]

And that "Capito could very well lose the primary!" argument is quickly going down the drain.

Murkowski posted dominating leads over Miller in the GOP primary in 2010 up until the election, and then lost in an upset. Two years is an eternity in politics. She is favored, but nothing is guaranteed.

I think 2010 was a totally different year.

[Keystone Phil]

And that "Capito could very well lose the primary!" argument is quickly going down the drain.

Murkowski posted dominating leads over Miller in the GOP primary in 2010 up until the election, and then lost in an upset. Two years is an eternity in politics. She is favored, but nothing is guaranteed.

I think 2010 served as a warning to favorites: don't take a damn thing for granted in these races.

I also think Capito has personal popularity that Murkowski didn't come close to.