The 1,000 Districts Series

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

.drf is not an image file. it's what opens the maps in the app, but it doesn't transfer to an image of the maps.

[muon2]

What is the file extension? I don't think it will work if it's a .bmp for example.

drf 

how would I change the file extension

As BRTD noted that's the data file for Dave Redistricting App. If you open the file in the app and click on Area Views, there a button to Save View JPG. That will let you save an image of the map with the .jpg extension. That in turn can be saved to the Gallery.

If you do save as jpg, you may want to crop the image before uploading it. The image created by the app usually has a lot of extra white space.

[Dave from Michigan]

Ok cool I got it now. I knew the drf extension had to be wrong for this. Thanks for the help everyone.
I will be posting my Michigan map soon.

[morgieb]

How do I make map-moving faster on the DRA?

[muon2]

How do I make map-moving faster on the DRA?

From my experience it depends on the loaded state and your internet speed. I found moving to a different wifi hub could make a great deal of difference, especially on CA.

[Dave from Michigan]

Here is my Michigan map

District 1  Obama 51.9% McCain 46.2%
District 2  McCain 50.3% Obama 47.8%
District 3  Obama 49.5% McCain 48.8%
District 4  Obama 50.0% McCain 48.4%
District 5  Obama 52.0% McCain 46.4%
District 6  McCain 58.4% Obama 40.1%
District 7  Obama 58.0% McCain 40.3%
District 8  McCain 53.3% Obama 45.0%
District 9  Obama 50.4% McCain 47.8%
District 10 Obama 50.1% McCain 48.4%
District 11 Obama 56.1% McCain 42.1%
District 12 McCain 51.0% Obama 47.1%
District 13 Obama 49.4% McCain 48.6%
District 14 Obama 66.2% McCain 32.3%
District 15 Obama 49.6% McCain 48.4%
District 16 Obama 69.8% McCain 28.7%
District 17 Obama 57.5% McCain 40.9%
District 18 McCain 53.3% Obama 44.9%
District 19 McCain 51.5% Obama 46.9%
District 20 Obama 54.3% McCain 43.9%
District 21 Obama 51.6% McCain 46.7%
District 22 Obama 61.4% McCain 36.6%
District 23 Obama 54.1% McCain 44.6%
District 24 Obama 71.2% McCain 27.4%
District 25 Obama 62.9% McCain 35.5%
District 26 Obama 59.4% McCain 38.7%
District 27 Obama 52.2% McCain 46.4%
District 28 Obama 80.8% McCain 18.3% Majority black 59.9 VAP
District 29 Obama 82.4% McCain 16.7% Majority Black 57.0 VAP
District 30 Obama 51.2% McCain 47.2%
District 31 Obama 84.3% McCain 14.8% Majority Black 60.0% VAP
District 32 Obama 90.2% McCain 9.2% Majority Black 59.0% VAP

[Dave from Michigan]

[Dave from Michigan]

[Dave from Michigan]

[Dave from Michigan]

Obama won 26 of 32 Districts in 2008, and over 50% in 23 districts.

[Dave from Michigan]

Is my map too Republican? Republicans could probably win a 54% Obama district depending on the year so under my map they could win 19 of 32 districts. I tried to draw fair lines I think there are lots of tossup seats on this map but I didn't draw it that way on purpose. As I was drawing it, it seemed more favorable to the Democrats.

[traininthedistance]

Is my map too Republican? Republicans could probably win a 54% Obama district depending on the year so under my map they could win 19 of 32 districts. I tried to draw fair lines I think there are lots of tossup seats on this map but I didn't draw it that way on purpose. As I was drawing it, it seemed more favorable to the Democrats.

At first glance it certainly looks like a clean, fair map to me.  Lots of tossups is appropriate in the Midwest, and given the natural packing of Dems in urban areas you'd have to make things quite ugly in order to make a map where the Republicans won't have a chance at a majority.

[Dave from Michigan]

Yeah it seems pretty fair.

Here is where I think the current congresspeople from Michigan would run

current 1st Benishek,  new 1st district (Iron County)
current 2nd Huizenga, new 8th district (his home of Zeeland is barely in the 8th)
Current 3rd Amash, new 6th district (Cascade Township)
Current 4th Camp, new 4th district (Midland)
current 5th Kildee, new 16th district (Flint Township)
Current 6th Upton, new 10th district (St Joseph)
current 7th Walberg, new 9th district (Tipton, Franklin township)
current 8th Rogers, new 18th district (Howell)
current 9th Levin, new 22nd district (Royal Oak)
Current 10th Miller, new 18th district (Harrison township)
current 11th Bentivolio, He lives in the 30th district but the 12th district is the next township over and would be way safer.
current 12th Dingell, He lives in the 31st district which is majority black. a lot of his current district is in the 26th (downriver) and is a area he has represented for a long time.
current 13th Conyers, He lives in on the west side of Detroit I think. The 29th and 31st are on the west side but the 29th includes Southfield.
current 14th Peters, represents a majority black district but lives in Bloomfield Hills which is in the 23rd district although the new 23rd is only 54% Obama. He could run in the 29th a majority black district.

[traininthedistance]

Traininthedistance invites you to: Come on feel the Illinoise!

So… 42 districts.  While this is meant to be a reasonably clean and fair map, there are of course several issues to confront when making such a thing.  First off, when splitting counties (and splitting counties is obviously necessary esp. in Chicagoland), I chose to prioritize keeping townships together rather than cities and villages- the voting districts and county boundaries line up with townships, which also tend to be square or squarish rather than tentacled, irregular blobs.  Granted, several townships need to be split anyway.  All the split townships are within four Chicagoland counties (Cook, Will, DuPage, and Kankakee), and most involve VRA districts.

Second off, there's the VRA.  By sheer population numbers, the state should support between five and six black districts, and also five or six Hispanic districts.  This is not quite possible- I struggled to get to four Hispanic districts (and a token fifth minority-majority district in the suburbs), and the fourth one is the new and permanent winner of "ugliest district I will draw all series".  But six mostly-compact black districts is easy, provided you do the obvious thing and unpack the hilariously overpacked South Side.  There are six districts which stretch from Chicago to the suburbs, but fully five of them are VRA districts, and one is just the inevitable leftovers.

Also worth noting: the partisan figures are Obama '08, which given the partisan climate and home-state effect is obviously far from typical.  There will be quite a few Lean R districts that Obama won here.

I'll do this in two posts.

The state as a whole:


Will County and south Cook (you can get a god view of DuPage as well, though I won't get to those districts for quite awhile):



DISTRICT 1: FAR SOUTHEAST CHICAGO-CALUMET CITY-EAST KANKAKEE.  Pop 305,188.  O 82.1%.  30W/52B/17H.  This is easily the least-compact of our six black districts.  Far Southeast Chicago (and a little bit of South as per the community areas), and then a string down the state line to Kankakee County, which has black populations in the city itself and the township of Pembroke.  In addition to Chicago, Thornton and Bloom are split with 2, mostly along village lines and the Bishop Ford Freeway, and Kankakee City is split with 33.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 2: SOUTH SIDE SUBURBS.  Pop 305,133.  O 77.9%.  38W/52B.  You can, in fact, make a black-majority district entirely within the southern suburbs of Chicago.  This is that district, taking in the rest of Thornton and Blair, all of Rich, and then two townships in Will: Monee (which is also heavily-black), and Frankfort (which is not, but some unpacking is necessary down here).  Safe D.

DISTRICT 3: JOLIET-WILL.  Pop 305,798.  O 59.9%.  66W/12B/18H.  Entirely whole townships, entirely within Will.  Joliet has a significant minority population, but it's too far (and too mixed) to put in a VRA district, so it anchors the main Will district instead.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 4: FAR SOUTH CHICAGO-CALUMET-BREMEN-SOUTH WORTH.  Pop 304,966.  O 83.5%.  35W/54B.  Our second of three black districts to straddle Chicago and the southern suburbs, significantly more compact than 1.  Snappier name welcome.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 5: FAR SOUTHWEST CHICAGO-NORTH WORTH.  Pop 304,598.   O 81.9%.  38W/55B.  More of the same.  Safe D.

Let's pan up a little to get the rest of Chicago proper:



DISTRICT 6:  NEAR SOUTH-HYDE PARK-DOWNTOWN.  Pop 306,112.  O 92.6%.  28W/58B.  Our first all-Chicago district and fifth black-majority district, this finishes up the South Side and then runs north to the Loop. All things go, all things go.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 7: BRIDGEPORT-GAGE PARK-WEST LAWN.  Pop 304,914.  O 79.0%.  21W/10B/59H.  Our first Hispanic-majority district, and one of two entirely within the city.  Along with 8, splits the Mexican community in the city's southwest; also includes the epicenter of the city's Chinese community in Bridgeport.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 8: STEVENSON EXPRESSWAY-BERWYN-STICKNEY.  Pop 305,246.  O 73.9%.  33W/57H.  The rest of the Hispanic areas in the city's Southwest and lower West sides, this district needs to extend past city limits to make up population, taking in all of Berwyn and Stickney, and several cities/villages in Lyons with a relatively high Hispanic population.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 9: WEST SIDE CHICAGO.  Pop 304,556.  O 92.9%.  28W/56B.  Our final black-majority district, it is almost entirely within the city's West Side.  Safest D in the state.

DISTRICT 10: WEST COOK.  Pop 306,259.  O 68.3%.  67W/20B.  Entirely within Cook and outside of Chicago, it is all of Palos, the less-Hispanic parts of Lyons and Proviso, and most of Oak Park.  Man that split of Oak Park is ugly but I couldn't figure out a better way to accommodate 11, which bridges the northern and southern Hispanic communities in Cook since that's the only way to get a fourth VRA district.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 11: CICERO-AUSTIN-BENSENVILLE.  Pop 304,289.  O 75.0%.  34W/56H.  Ladies and gentlemen, this district is a hot mess.  However, it's arguably a necessary mess- there's about one and a half districts worth of Hispanics in and around NW Chicago, and about two-and-a-half in SW Chicago.  And here's where we bridge the gap.  All of Cicero is connected via a thin line in Oak Park to Hispanic-majority and diverse neighborhoods in northwest Chicago and several suburban towns south of O'Hare.  Proviso is split with 10, Leyden with 15, and Addison (in DuPage) with 25.  This is also the least-Hispanic VRA district I made; I would hope that 56 percent is sufficient to elect a candidate of choice.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 12: NEAR NORTHWEST.  Pop 305,051.  O 85.5%.  30W/58H.  Our final Hispanic-majority district; this one fairly compactly takes in most of the city's Puerto Rican community.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 13:  NEAR NORTH SHORE.  Pop 305,370.  O 78.5%.  Only 76% white, but all other groups are roughly even.  Presumably this district has the highest concentration of white liberals in the state.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 14: FAR NORTH SIDE.  Pop 303,705.  O 76.8%.  54W/11B/18H/14A.  Last of six all-Chicago districts.  Safe D.

And now, North Cook and Lake.



DISTRICT 15: FAR NORTHWEST-O'HARE-DES PLAINES.  Pop 305,082.  O 58.9%.  77W/14H.  The final Chicago district, it takes the remainder of the city (including O'Hare), the enclave of Norwood Park and most of Leyden (with 11) and Maine (with 16), pretty much completely along village boundaries.  Probably still Lean D?

DISTRICT 16: EVANSTON-NORTHFIELD-NILES.  Pop 303,746.  O 69.2%.  68W/17A.  The three named townships/city, and the rest of Maine.  Liberal North Shore suburbs, blah blah blah.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 17: LINCOLN SOUTH-SCHAUMBURG.  Pop 302,643.  O 61.9%.  62W/18H/15A.  "Lincoln" is the six townships in the northwestern arm of Cook County; together they work out very well to two full districts (if a bit underpopulated, at -2848 this has the highest deviation in the state).  Hanover, Schaumburg, and most of Elk Grove.  I'm used to considering any 60%+ Obama district safe, but I'm not entirely sure about this one given the massiveness of the home-state effect in '08.  Eh, screw it. Safe D.

DISTRICT 18: LAKE SOUTH-NEW TRIER.  Pop 305,790.  O 61.8%.  Splits Fremont with 20, but otherwise whole townships.  Like 17, I'm going to call this Safe D even if a little Bob Dold-shaped voice in my head says I should be more cautious.

DISTRICT 19: LINCOLN NORTH-ARLINGTON HEIGHTS.  Pop 303,348.  O 55.9%.  76W/12H/10A.  The rest of Cook: Barrington, Palatine, Wheeling, and part of Elk Grove (with 17).  Despite the Obama numbers (he won by 13 points here in 2008), there's a lot of ancestral and down-ballot strength for Republicans here.  Erm, Tossup?

DISTRICT 20: LAKE NORTH.  Pop 305,087.  O 62.0%.  54W/11B/28H.  Splits Fremont with 18, entirely within Lake.  Safe-ish D, modulo Bob Dold of course.

DISTRICT 21: MCHENRY-LAKE WEST.  Pop 304,757.  O 304,757.  O 51.1%.  You can do an all-McHenry district (with just maybe a couple precincts for another district), but that's not compatible with the low number of township splits I was able to make in Lake and north Cook.  So this is the rest of Lake, and most of McHenry.  Lean R for sure.

Part 2 coming next!

[traininthedistance]

A veritable avalanche of districts!

DuPage, Kane, DeKalb, & environs.



DISTRICT 22: DOWNER'S GROVE EAST-ORLAND-NEW LENOX.  Pop 307,197.  O 48.1%.  The rest of this district is visible in the very first close up.  Basically a pentomino of suburban townships (Lemont and Orland in SW Cook; Homer and New Lenox in Will) with the largest one (Downer's Grove in DuPage) split with 24 because, well, these are very large townships.   It's an honest-to-goodness McCain district in Chicagoland, and as such deserves the label Safe R.

DISTRICT 23: AURORA-BOLINGBROOK.  Pop 307,862.  O 64.2%.  49W/11B/32H.  Along with 22 and 24 a whole-township grouping; this one splits a tiny bit more than necessary with 24 since there's an opportunity for a min-maj suburban district.  All of heavily Hispanic Aurora in Kane; diverse DuPage (main locale is Bolingbrook) in Will, and then splits Naperville in DuPage and Wheatland in Will with 24.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 24: NAPERVILLE-DOWNER'S GROVE WEST.  Pop 307,670.  O 55.6%.  74W/11A. The three aforementioned splits with 22 and 23, mostly trying to take in the cities of Downer's Grove and Naperville; also the towns of Lisle and Winfield.  Not technically an all DuPage district, but functionally so.  An over 12 point Obama margin… but this is DuPage, after all.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 25: WHEATON-NORTHEAST DUPAGE.  Pop 303,393.  O 52.9%.  78W/10H.  All of Milton and York, the whiter parts of Addison (most of them), which it splits with 11.  Entirely within DuPage.  From here on out, it's entirely whole townships (well, except for the split of Kankakee we won't get to for awhile yet). Lean R.

DISTRICT 26: NORTHWEST DUPAGE-ST.CHARLES-BATAVIA.  Pop 306,198.  O 53.6%.  76W/11H/10A.  Bloomingdale and Wayne in DuPage, St. Charles, Batavia, and Blackberry in Kane.  We're starting to get out into exurbs now (well, the McHenry district was exurbs too).  Yet another Lean R Obama district.

DISTRICT 27:  ALGONQUIN-ELGIN-DUNDEE-GRAFTON.  Pop 306,615.  O 56.1%.  71W/21H.  Those four townships, in Kane and McHenry.  Another big-for-Obama-in-08 Tossup.

DISTRICT 28: DEKALB-KENDALL-OUTER KANE.  Pop 306,696.  O 52.1%.  82W/10H.  Self-explanatory, also has two rural townships in McHenry.  This exurban district seals off Chicagoland with whole counties in the west.  Lean R.

Now Rockford and the northwest.  Finally exiting Chicagoland.



DISTRICT 29: ROCKFORD.  Pop 303,639.  O 56.1%.  76W/10B/11H.  Entirely within the Rockford metro; all of Boone and the vast majority of Winnebago.  NW Illinois held up better in 2012 than the rest of the state, so you could make a case that it in fact leans D now, but I'm still calling this Tossup.

DISTRICT 30: NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  Pop 305,518.  O 50.8%.  Splits Winnebago with 29 and Whiteside with 31, which are the only splits for both of those districts.  Seven more whole counties, which include several micropolitan areas and even the edge of the Peoria metro, but really this district is heavily agricultural.  Another Lean R for Obama in '08 (but not in '12).


Central IL.



DISTRICT 31: ROCK ISLAND-MOLINE-MACOMB.  Pop 306,268.  O 56.5%.  The rest of Whiteside and seven more counties going down the Mississippi.  While there is plenty of farmland here, too, the Illinois half of the Quad Cities makes this a distinctly less rural district.  Lean D; it didn't do much better than all of those 55-56% Obama districts in '08, but it definitely did in '12 and in years past.

DISTRICT 32: PEORIA-GALESBURG-CANTON.  Pop304,130.  O 56.7%.  82W/11B.  Our first district entirely made of whole counties, it takes Peoria and four smaller ones to the west and south.  Lean D much like 31.

DISTRICT 33: OTTAWA-STREATOR-PONTIAC-WEST KANKAKEE.  Pop 305,666.  O 49.6%. (McCain was 48.7%.)  And, finally, the last split city (Kankakee, with 1) is dealt with.  The rest of Will (the ruralish parts) and Kankakee (the white parts); also LaSalle, Livingston, and Grundy.  A transitional district between south Chicagoland and Downstate.  Lean R though Obama won it, you know the drill by now.

DISTRICT 34: PRAIRIE DISTRICT THAT WANDERS ABOUT.  303,971.  O 45.0%.  Eight whole counties; Bloomington/Normal is the main population center and everything else is quite rural.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 35: WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  Pop 306,394.  O 44.4%.  Eleven whole counties, splits Sangamon with 37 (basically taking everything outside of Springfield proper) and Macoupin wih 39.  Quincy and Jacksonville are the main hubs here, I guess.  The Macoupin split is definitely unavoidable, and while I haven't rigorously proved the same for Sangamon, allowing 37 to be more urban/suburban and 35 to be more strongly rural appeals to my aesthetics.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 36: CHAMPAIGN-URBANA-DANVILLE.  Pop 302,686.  O 54.3%.  77W/10B.  Three counties: Champaign, Vermilliion, Douglas.  Romney won this by a smudge in 2012, though it was exceedingly close.  Tossup, though if you wanted to claim an R tilt that would also be reasonable.

DISTRICT 37: SPRINGFIELD-EAST PEORIA.  Pop 307,655.  O 49.7%.  (McCain 48.6%.)  Tazewell, Lincoln, and part of Sangamon including all of the city of Springfield.  Probably the most urban Central IL district, though 32 and 36 are also more metro than farm as well.  Yet another barely Obama-in-'08 Lean R.

DISTRICT 38: DECATUR-CHARLESTON-EFFINGHAM.  Pop 306,691.  O 45.1%.  Eight whole counties; Decatur is by far the largest population center and the rest is pretty rural.  I almost called this district "Round of Applause for Your Stepmother", for reasons that should hopefully be obvious to at least some of you by now.  Safe R.

Finally, Southern IL.



DISTRICT 39: MADISON-METRO EAST NORTH.  Pop 308,275.  O 53.8%.  Mostly Madison, also Bond and the more built-up southern portion of Macoupin; all within the St. Louis metro area.  It appears to be impossible to put Madison in a whole-counties district.  It's a Kerry-Romney district, so I guess Tossup is appropriate though maybe it's just trending R too much for that?

DISTRICT 40: MONROE-METRO EAST SOUTH.  Pop 307,818.  O 58.6%.  70W/25B.  Just Monroe and Clinton; really almost all Monroe.  The core of Metro East is here, including East St. Louis and some other towns that I'm sure are much nicer.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 41: WABASH-SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. Pop 306,392.  O 42.8%.  Twenty counties.  No even mid-sized towns to speak of.  Farms and coal mining.  Safest R.

DISTRICT 42: CARBONDALE-LITTLE EGYPT.  Pop 308,263.  O 47.1%.  Ten counties along the Mississippi, from the southern reaches of the St. Louis metro (Monroe) to the Carbondale area down to Cairo at the very southern tip.  There's some ancestral Dem strength here, but any McCain district is basically Safe R here.

...

Six black-majority (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9); four Hispanic-majority (7, 8, 11, 12); one more min-maj (23).

18 Safe D
5 Lean D
6 Tossup
7 Lean R
6 Safe R

Given that Obama won Illinois by 16 points in 2012, that's pretty anemic for the Dems.  Illinois is one of the best examples we have of a state "naturally gerrymandered" in the Repub's favor, it's almost as if you need a moderate Dem gerrymander to represent the state fairly.

Anyway, now I sit back and wait for muon2 to rip this thing to shreds.  

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In fairness, I think Democrats need to realize that racking up massive margins in urban areas doesn't benefit them at the congressional level; the main flaw in the Obama coalition. If we want to take back the House, we need to appeal to suburban and rural voters.

[traininthedistance]

In fairness, I think Democrats need to realize that racking up massive margins in urban areas doesn't benefit them at the congressional level; the main flaw in the Obama coalition. If we want to take back the House, we need to appeal to suburban and rural voters.

The Dems are competitive in many suburbs as it stands right now; the problem is the ancestral downballot R strength in a lot of these areas, and also the distribution tends to be such that you get a lot of tilt-R districts.  Breaking the downballot R tendencies of moderate suburban areas does need to be the Dems' biggest strategic objective right now.

Rural areas feel like more of a lost cause, but that's not necessarily as bad of a problem I don't think.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

There are plenty of rural areas, particularly in the upland South and parts of the Midwest, that are more populist than right-wing. If the Democrats at some point drop the trend towards being a culturally liberal, economically neoliberal party which keeps inner-city minorities with valence issues, and become an economically left-populist party, they would do much better at a congressional level.

Though taking over some of these swingy suburban areas helps us wing, it also bring many moderates and neoliberals on board, which is the last thing I want.

[morgieb]

There are plenty of rural areas, particularly in the upland South and parts of the Midwest, that are more populist than right-wing. If the Democrats at some point drop the trend towards being a culturally liberal, economically neoliberal party which keeps inner-city minorities with valence issues, and become an economically left-populist party, they would do much better at a congressional level.

Though taking over some of these swingy suburban areas helps us wing, it also bring many moderates and neoliberals on board, which is the last thing I want.

It depends though - will they elect populists who will support most of our economic agenda or Blue Dogs? And I'd much rather New Dems to Blue Dogs.

[Sbane]

There are plenty of rural areas, particularly in the upland South and parts of the Midwest, that are more populist than right-wing. If the Democrats at some point drop the trend towards being a culturally liberal, economically neoliberal party which keeps inner-city minorities with valence issues, and become an economically left-populist party, they would do much better at a congressional level.

Though taking over some of these swingy suburban areas helps us wing, it also bring many moderates and neoliberals on board, which is the last thing I want.

It may be the last thing you want, but winning suburban districts is the only way Democrats can get to a majority in the house. The rural areas are gone, they are done. They have gone the tea party way, where they want their piece of pork but want to F the rest of the country. That is not compatible with Democratic policies.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

There are plenty of rural areas, particularly in the upland South and parts of the Midwest, that are more populist than right-wing. If the Democrats at some point drop the trend towards being a culturally liberal, economically neoliberal party which keeps inner-city minorities with valence issues, and become an economically left-populist party, they would do much better at a congressional level.

Though taking over some of these swingy suburban areas helps us wing, it also bring many moderates and neoliberals on board, which is the last thing I want.

It may be the last thing you want, but winning suburban districts is the only way Democrats can get to a majority in the house. The rural areas are gone, they are done. They have gone the tea party way, where they want their piece of pork but want to F the rest of the country. That is not compatible with Democratic policies.

You put far too much faith in political alignments remaining the same. And Democrats can easily win in rural states while not becoming Bible-thumping right-wingers. Look at Kathleen Sebelius, or Brian Schweitzer, or Heidi Heitkamp.

[traininthedistance]

Here's an alternative, "clean and fair" version of Maryland.  I made the map for this quite awhile ago (before BRTD put up his version in fact) but didn't get around to annotating it until just now, when the process of drawing Illinois reminded me I should put this one up.  

There are a lot of similarities with Illinois, actually:  both are super-strong D states which are naturally laid out for the Republicans' benefit, and as such a "fair" map is going to be more gentle to the Rs than what would ever actually get passed.  But a fair map is also going to unpack the large black communities in Prince George's and Baltimore in much the same way as South Side Chicago. And with nearly 30 percent black population, there are many, many VRA districts you can make- six black-majority districts, in fact.   You could probably get away with five in a vacuum, but doing six here helps make up for states where you have to do less.

Lots of county splits, but that's unavoidable when there are 19 districts for 24 counties, and you have the restrictive geography of the western panhandle and Eastern Shore to deal with.  

The whole state:



MontCo and Frederick:



DISTRICT 1: WESTERN MARYLAND.  Pop 303,506.   O 38.9%, D 38.8%.  Garrett, Allegany, and Washington have no choice but to be here; the only question is how to divide Frederick.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 2: FREDERICK-GERMANTOWN-WESTERN MONTGOMERY.  Pop 303,500.  O 57.3%, D 54.8%.  65W/13B/10H/10A.  As Frederick and its surroundings are drawn more and more into the orbit of the DC area, it makes sense to pair it with Montgomery, and there's enough left for the rural western bit as well as the furthest-out town along the county's central spine, Germantown.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 3: POTOMAC-BETHESDA-SILVER SPRING.  Pop 306,142.  O 75.6%, D 75.8%.  64W/11B/10H/12A.  More or less the whiter and richer communities of inner Montco, radiating out in Georgetown's direction along the Potomac.  Of course,  Safe D.

DISTRICT 4: HOWARD.  Pop 305,315.  O 60.9%, D 59.9%.  61W/17B/14A.  Has to take in a small corner of Montgomery for population, but otherwise just HoCo, straddling the DC and Baltimore areas.  Columbia is obviously the major population center here.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 5: ROCKVILLE-GAITHERSBURG-CENTRAL MONTGOMERY.  Pop 304,090.  O 66.5%, D 67.1%.  54W/13B/16H/15A.   Our second all-Montco district, centered on the two named cities and then taking more suburban and exurban areas to the north.  Like all the other Montco districts, substantially more Hispanics and Asians than the state as a whole.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 6: WHEATON-GLENMONT-HYATTSVILLE.  Pop 304,587.  O 78.4%, D 78.5%.  29W/28B/31H/11A.  The rest of Montgomery, and then an arm into areas of Prince George's just south of College Park.  This is more or less the cleanest way to get a Hispanic-plurality district.  Safe D.

Prince George's and Annapolis:




DISTRICT 7: ANNAPOLIS-CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL.  Pop 303,980.  O 46.7%, D 49.2%.  80W/10B  This district is, obviously, the main thing that would be obliterated in any Democratic map, but deserves to exist anyway.  Anne Arundel still gets torn asunder (since parts of it are Southern MD, there's the diversifying BWI region, and many other communities that are satellites of areas outside the county), but it does deserve a full district of its own, centered on Annapolis.  The decision to go north from Annapolis and gather super-white towns on the Chesapeake Bay shore like Severna Park and Lake Shore is largely a matter of accommodating the surrounding VRA districts.  Lean R.

DISTRICT 8: PRINCE GEORGE'S INSIDE BELTWAY:  Pop 303,907.  O 92.7%, D 90.8%.  16W/64B/13H.  Well, not strictly inside the Beltway, but close; an arc around DC from College Park and Greenbelt in the north to Suitland in the south..  The first of three black-majority districts centered on Prince George's (and the only one entirely within the county); even with unpacking them significantly this one is still 64 percent black.  Safest D in the state.

DISTRICT 9: LAUREL-BOWIE-NORTH PRINCE GEORGE'S:  Pop 304,782.  O 82.5%, D 81.8%.  26W/57B.  Mostly Prince George's in the more suburban communities to the east and north of 8; a small minority-heavy section of Anne Arundel (Maryland City and Fort Meade) is also included.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 10: PRINCE GEORGE'S AND ANNE ARUNDEL SOUTH: Pop 303,509.  O 76.1%, D 75.8%.  36W/55B.  The rest of Prince George's (and our third VRA district) is unpacked by adding the southern Anne Arundel and the portion of Calvert that doesn't fit in 11.  Safe D.

And the Baltimore area (sorry, the Eastern Shore didn't really need a zoom):




DISTRICT 11: SOUTHERN MARYLAND.  Pop 301,267.  O 53.7%, D 59.1%.  66W/26B.  Charles, St. Mary's, and most of Calvert.  The deviation is highest here (-2604) largely because the districts are pretty large in Calvert.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 12: EASTERN SHORE SOUTH.  Pop 304,911.  O 43.3%, D 45.1%.  75W/19B.  Five whole counties (Worcester, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester, Talbot) and parts of Queen Anne's and Caroline.  It wasn't possible to maintain road connections and keep within acceptable deviations while only splitting one county, and I consider crossing the Bay Bridge to be unacceptable in any fair/neutral map.  Lean R rather than safe if only because Kratovil-types are proven to have a chance here in good years.

DISTRICT 13: EASTERN SHORE AND HARFORD NORTH.  Pop 305,058.  O 36.8%, D 39.8%.  The Eastern Shore is about one and a half districts large here, so if we're not crossing the Bay Bridge the rest has to take Harford, which has two connections across the Susquehanna.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 14: BALTIMORE AND HARFORD CHESAPEAKE BANKS.  Pop 302,543.  O 49.2%, D 57.9%.  72W/19B.  I-95 is more or less the northern boundary of 14, splitting Harford and taking the eastern suburbs of Baltimore.  Aberdeen, Essex, and Dundalk are the major towns in this collection of working-class suburbs that is rather Democratic downballot but is less a fan of that Kenyan usurper (if you know what I mean).  Though he did win, barely.  Tossup on the grounds that the Baltimore County portion is probably trending away from the Dems, though I considered giving it a D lean.

DISTRICT 15: CARROLL-BALTIMORE COUNTY NORTH.  Pop 301,773.  O 35.8%, D 37.2%.  The uber-red northern suburbs of Baltimore, most Republican district in the state.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 16:  MID-NORTH BALTIMORE-TOWSON AREA.  Pop 303,836.  O 61.9%, D 65.3%.  69W/19B.  The inner northern and northeastern suburbs of Baltimore, plus a wedge into Baltimore excising the city's white and upscale neighborhoods.  I don't like that all four Baltimore County districts have to share their area with other counties (or Baltimore City), but this arrangement is better on CoI and VRA grounds than having it (or, god forbid, the Carroll district) take heavily black western suburbs like Randallstown and Lochearn.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 17: BALTIMORE COUNTY WEST-CITY NORTHWEST.  Pop 304,152.  O 79.8%, D 78.8%.  33W/58B.  The remainder of Baltimore County, centered on the heavily-black suburbs along Route 26, and a large chunk of west and northwest Baltimore City.  Our fourth black-majority district, and first of three in the Baltimore area.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 18:  BALTIMORE CITY EAST AND HARBOR.  Pop 301,984.  O 85.8%, D 85.0%.  34W/56B.  While I couldn't make an all Baltimore County district without screwing other things up, I did at least get an all-City district.  The eastern half of the city, the downtown area, and Locust Point.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 19: BALTIMORE CITY WEST AND SOUTH-SEVERN-BWI.  Pop 304,710.  O 72.3%, D 72.6%.  40W/50B.  The rest of the city, and inland northern portions of Anne Arundel.  The AA parts are mostly white, but there's just enough black population to get it over the 50% mark for our sixth black district.  Avoiding Baltimore County saves us a split but makes the boundaries a little awkward.  Safe D.

...

Six black-majority districts (8, 9, 10, 17, 18, 19) and one Hispanic-plurality district (6).

11 Safe D
2 Lean D
1 Tossup
2 Lean R
3 Safe R

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting that your district 2 isn't too different from mine. I guess what's obvious in a Dem gerrymander in that region is also logical from a neutral perspective too.

[Sbane]

There are plenty of rural areas, particularly in the upland South and parts of the Midwest, that are more populist than right-wing. If the Democrats at some point drop the trend towards being a culturally liberal, economically neoliberal party which keeps inner-city minorities with valence issues, and become an economically left-populist party, they would do much better at a congressional level.

Though taking over some of these swingy suburban areas helps us wing, it also bring many moderates and neoliberals on board, which is the last thing I want.

It may be the last thing you want, but winning suburban districts is the only way Democrats can get to a majority in the house. The rural areas are gone, they are done. They have gone the tea party way, where they want their piece of pork but want to F the rest of the country. That is not compatible with Democratic policies.

You put far too much faith in political alignments remaining the same. And Democrats can easily win in rural states while not becoming Bible-thumping right-wingers. Look at Kathleen Sebelius, or Brian Schweitzer, or Heidi Heitkamp.

Sure, competing in uber white areas with no racial tension whatsoever is possible to do for Democrats. Otherwise they are an urban and suburban party for the most party.

[traininthedistance]

Interesting that your district 2 isn't too different from mine. I guess what's obvious in a Dem gerrymander in that region is also logical from a neutral perspective too.

In decades past, it may have made more sense to pair the rest of Frederick with Carroll, and I guess an R-leaning map might still try to do so.  But times have changed; Frederick is now part of the DC metro and fully belongs with outer Montgomery.