The 1,000 Districts Series

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This state turned out a bit more interesting than one would think:



DISTRICT 1: DESOTO-OXFORD: Oddly this isn't that Republican compared to how you'd expect a district based around Memphis suburbia to be, probably thanks to the fact it's now picking up black spillover from Memphis and is 26.2% black VAP. Still 59.7% McCain and Safe R.
DISTRICT 2: NORTH DELTA: 61.5% black VAP...and 63.3% Obama. Ugh. Safe D regardless.
DISTRICT 3: NORTHEAST: The least black district but also the only one that still has a significant number of white Democrats. Only 16.5% black VAP, but Obama got almost 30% here. Regardless while this would have historically been a conservative Democrat seat, it's now close to Safe R, at least until Obama leaves office. That last bit makes it Likely R.
DISTRICT 4: JACKSON-YAZOO CITY: The most descriptive name would be "The black part of Jackson plus some black rural areas" but that won't work. Obviously still safe D, 64.8% black VAP/67.7% Obama.
DISTRICT 5: RANKIN-RIDGELAND: The white part of Jackson plus some white Jackson suburbs, 71.6% McCain, Safe R.
DISTRICT 6: SOUTH DELTA-SOUTH CENTRAL: Majority black, but only plurality black VAP, (49% to 47.8% white) and 54.4% Obama. That means if black turnout ever craters it could flip, for that reason I'll call it Likely D. Most likely would end up with a rather conservative black Democrat ala Sanford Bishop representing it though.
DISTRICT 7: COLUMBUS-CENTRAL: Here's a white district, but still 36.3% black VAP and McCain only won it with 53.7%. That makes it a Lean R seat, wouldn't have been won in 2010 but in the future a conservative white Democrat might manage to win it. Maybe.
DISTRICT 8: EAST STATE LINE: This district is only slightly less black than the 7th (31.1%), but significantly stronger for McCain (64.3%), I guess thanks to where Harry went to school the 7th does have some white Democrats after all. Still this is a Safe R seat.
DISTRICT 9: HATTIESBURG-SOUTH CENTRAL: 72.2% McCain, less than 20% black VAP, not much to see here. Safe R.
DISTRICT 10: GULF COAST: Perhaps unsurprisingly, this district does clearly have a non-negligible number of white Democrats (36.7% Obama in a district that's 21.4% black VAP), but it's still too white and Republican to be winnable. Safe R.

[Dave from Michigan]

working on Michigan, how do I post a map of it?

[muon2]

working on Michigan, how do I post a map of it?

You can post it in the Atlas gallery as a demographic map. Then when you click on the gallery image it will give you the code to put in your post here.

[traininthedistance]

Wisconsin in eighteen.

I split a lot more towns in Wisconsin than I'm used to, but with the exception of Milwaukee, which is too large for one district, all the town splits were along county lines- as is the case in much of the country, towns often straddle county lines here.  Within counties, towns and townships are always unsplit save for Milwaukee.  In fact, Wisconsin is probably the state I've done so far where I paid the most deference to county lines, trying to make as many whole-county groupings as I could (that didn't totally infringe upon CoI concerns).  Eventually I was able to get it up to six.  

There's a *lot* of area here with an Obama average but also a Rep average, and unlike Massachusetts the Rep average needs to be taken seriously because Obama in '08 was very much a high-water mark for the Dems here.  A lot of these areas are swingy, or more Dem for Prez than for local races, so the truth is in the middle but perhaps more towards the generic partisan average.

The whole state:



And closeup on the Milwaukee area:



DISTRICT 1: KENOSHA-RACINE.  Pop 317,475.  O 57.9%, D 48.2%.  78W/10H.  All of Kenosha and most of Racine, of course.  Um, Tossup I guess.

DISTRICT 2: WATERTOWN-BEAVER DAM-WEST MILWAUKEE COUNTRYSIDE.  Pop 314,902.  O 42.1%, D 31.8%.  Um… this is the ugly duckling leftovers district.  All of Dodge and Jefferson, in the no-man's-land between Milwaukee and Madison, the outer edge of Waukesha (whatever didn't fit in the all-Waukesha 6), the leftovers in Racine, and then some area in Walworth.  Splitting Walworth north-south would have looked nicer, except that there's a weird noncontiguous exclave in Troy Twp.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 3: MILWAUKEE SOUTH.  Pop 315,890.  O 50.6%, D 43.8%.  Milwaukee County is the perfect size for three districts, so I did that.  This is mostly the southern and near-western suburbs, but part of the city has to be taken in as well. Lean R.

DISTRICT 4: MILWAUKEE CENTRAL.  Pop 316,345. O 72.5%, D 68.4%.  56W/16B/23H.  The only district entirely within Milwaukee, since 5 needs to take a couple northern suburbs, it takes in all of the city's Hispanic community, the downtown, and the area along Lake Michigan.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 5: MILWAUKEE NORTH.  Pop 315,500.  O 80.1%, D 76.5%.  38W/54B.  The state's only possible VRA district, this black-majority Dem super-pack is unfortunately unavoidable.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 6: WAUKESHA.  Pop 315,211.  O 37.2%, D 28.9%.  Of course, to be fair, you do have a couple obvious super-Republican packs in the Milwaukee suburbs, too.  The Milwaukee area is bizarrely hyperpolarized.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-SHEBOYGAN.  O 40.0%, D 30.0%.  Milwaukee's northern suburbs, and most of Sheboygan County as well.  The northern suburbs ended up in the county-grouping with the two Fox River districts.  Safe R.

Closeup on Madison (and the western edge of the Milwaukee area) now.



DISTRICT 8: JANESVILLE- SOUTH CENTRAL.  O 60.8%, D 51.2%.  All of Rock and Green, most of Walworth, and the southern edge of Dane.  Along with 2, another intermediate part of the largest county-grouping I had to make (1,2,6,8,9,11).  Lean D.

DISTRICT 9:  MADISON.  O 77.4%, D 75.6%.  Madison and a few surrounding towns, entirely within Dane.  Safe D of course.

DISTRICT 10: LA CROSSE-SOUTH DRIFTLESS AREA. O 60.3%, D 48.9%.  Seven whole counties, self-explanatory.  Lean D, I guess- the numbers in DRA aren't much different than 1, but my impression is that the general political culture is.

DISTRICT 11: DELLS- NORTH DANE.  O 59.9%, D 51.3%.  Sealing off the giant south-central county grouping, this takes the rest of Dane (i.e. most of the outlying areas), and five counties to the north, centered on the resort area of Wisconsin Dells (which straddles four of them).  Lean D.

Two closeups now, on the northwest and the Fox River area:





DISTRICT 12: EAU CLAIRE- NORTH DRIFTLESS AREA.  O 57.5%, D 46.9%.  Eight counties, splits Pierce with 13.  Not strictly Driftless, but that's the basic idea here. Tossup.

DISTRICT 13: EAST MINNESOTA.  O 52.5%, D 43.9%.  Again, eight whole counties and splits Pierce.  The bulk of the population is in Twin Cities exurbs, but it has to go fairly far afield into the North Woods and Superior (another satellite of a Minnesota city) to fill out population.  Lean R.

DISTRICT 14: MANITOWOC-FOND DU LAC-FOX RIVER SOUTH.  O 48.1%, D 36.9%.  Splits Sheboygan with 7 and Winnebago with 15, and then five whole counties.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 15: FOX CITIES.  O 55.9%, D 45.7%.  All of Outagamie, and a finger down Winnebago to unite the Fox Cities (Appleton, Oshkosh, etc.)  I tried to get the portion of Appleton in Calumet County here too, but it didn't work without splitting more things elsewhere, alas.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 16: GREEN BAY-DOOR.  Pop 314,239.  O 54.4%, D 43.3%.  All of Brown, the Door Peninusla, and splits Oconto with 18.  Eh, Lean R.

DISTRICT 17: WAUSAU-STEVENS POINT.  Pop 316,577.  O 55.9%, D 45.1%.  Marathon, Portage, Wood, and the southern half of Waupaca.  Basically the last sizable urbanized areas in the northern reaches of the Wisconsin River.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 18: NORTH WOODS AND LAKES.  Pop 314,191.  O 53.8%, D 43.8%.  Splits the aforementioned Oconto and Waupaca with 16 and 17, and fourteen whole counties.  Thoroughly rural, includes many of the state's Native population, has to split its region with 13.  Lean R.

…

One VRA district, 5.

3 Safe D
3 Lean D
4 Tossup
4 Lean R
4 Safe R

Either the state is a natural R gerrymander or my race ratings are too conservative... really it's probably a bit of both.

[GMantis]

Since I was just about to post it before traininthedistance beat me to it, here's my version of Wisconsin:




DISTRICT 1: KENOSHA-RACINE: Obama 58%,  D 48.4%. Both of the main cities and most of the respective counties. I think this would probably be lean D - for example Kerry probably carried it, in a good year for the Republicans in Wisconsin.

DISTRICT 2: SOUTH MILWAUKEE: Obama 50.3%, D 43.5%. Mostly the whiter southern suburbs of Milwaukee. Lean R.

DISTRICT 3: CENTRAL MILWAUKEE: Obama 74.1%, D 69.8%. Entirely within the city of Milwaukee, hence the somewhat convoluted shape. Safe D.

DISTRICT 4: NORTH MILWAUKEE: Obama 79.2%, D 75.8%. Black majority district (54.3%, VAP 50.3%). Most Democratic in the state.

DISTRICT 5: EASTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY: Obama 37.4%, D 29.1%. City of Waukesha and most of the county. Most Republican district in the state.

DISTRICT 6: JEFFERSON COUNTY-WALWORTH COUNTY-WESTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY: Obama 43.1%, D 32.2%. A somewhat awkward district composed of the remainder of Southeastern Wisconsin, including also part of Racine and Dodge counties (mainly the town of Watertown). Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN: Obama 62.9%, D 52.5%. Most of the population is in Rock county, where the two largest cities, Janesville and Beloit are located. Safe D.

DISTRICT 8: SUBURBAN DANE-PORTAGE-DODGE COUNTY:  Obama 58.7%, D 51.3% Another district without many notable cities, it reaches as far as western Washington county. Not much more Democratic in 2008 than the 1st, but judging from the 2010 result probably safe D.

DISTRICT 9: MADISON: Obama 76.1%, D 74%. Includes (obviously) Madison and a few surrounding cities. Second most Democratic district in the state.

DISTRICT 10: CENTRAL COAST: Obama 40.6%, D 30.4%. Stretching from Sheboygan to the Milwaukee county line and also includes West Bend. Safe R.

DISTRICT 11: FOND DU LAC-OSHKOSH: Obama 50.5%, D 39.9%. The district is situated around Lake Winnebago, which nearly divides it into two halves. Despite the 2008 result, probably safe R.

DISTRICT 12: SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN: Obama 60%, D 48.6%. Self-explanatory. Part of the traditional western Democratic strongholds, though it collapsed in 2010. Lean D, though probably going to be held except in a very bad year.

DISTRICT 13: CENTRAL WISCONSIN: Obama 55.4%, D 44.5%. Again an obvious name for a district without any major settlements. It experienced one of the biggest swings to the Republicans in 2012. Lean R.

DISTRICT 14: APPLETON-WESTERN GREEN BAY SUBURBS: Obama 53.4%, D 42.2%. Named after the areas where most of the population is, though it stretches into the more sparsely populated Oconto and Shawano counties. Lean R.

DISTRICT 15: GREEN BAY-MANITOWOC: Obama 55.1%, D 43.9%. With the most Republican parts of Brown county in the 14th district, this is a bit more Democratic, though still lean R.

DISTRICT 16: EAU CLAIRE-ST.PAUL SUBURBS: Obama 54.7%, D 45.1. Relatively small by area for Northern Wisconsin, as it includes both the largest city in the region and the outer Twin Cities suburbs. The 2008 Obama and average R results nearly mirror each other. Tossup.

DISTRICT 17: NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN: Obama 55%, D 46.5%. The largest district in Wisconsin. Probably tossup, though the trend seems to favor the Democrats.

DISTRICT 18: NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN: Obama 53.2%, D 42.3%. Nearly half of the population is in Marathon county, so it could probably also be called Wausau and Wilderness Lean R (though it includes the most Democratic county in the state).

Overall:
5 Safe D
2 Lean D
2 Tossup
5 Lean R
4 Safe R
The state seems to be naturally gerrymandered towards the Republicans, though the if you consider the 15th a tossup district and the 17th a Democratic leaning one, the Democratic and Republican would be exactly equal.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I like that map better since it doesn't split up the rural counties on the shore of Lake Superior and the district around Walworth isn't quite as ugly (though as train noted that area is going to be ugly no matter what.)

Although since the Republicans controlled the redistricting, train's map is probably more likely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's Indiana:




I took into account that Republicans controlled the redistricting, but with their rather mild map it probably wouldn't be too different from a non-partisan map, since the Dem packs either way end up as the only likely to vote Democratic seats. Of course wave years can be brutal in Indiana.

DISTRICT 1: NORTH LAKE: Majority minority but plurality white. Regardless obviously a safe D seat, 74.7% Obama and he probably got similar numbers in 2012 since there wasn't much of a swing here.
DISTRICT 2: CENTRAL LAKE-PORTER: Won by Obama by 10 points in 2008 (54.7-44.4) and the anemic swing here means he probably won it in 2012 too. That probably puts it at Lean D.
DISTRICT 3: LAFAYETTE-STATE LINE: Obama won it in 2008 with under 50% (49.7), but Romney probably got around 56%. Probably Likely R, with the way Indiana works it wouldn't survive a wave.
DISTRICT 4: MICHIANA-WARSAW: Despite containing LaPorte County, this area stretches to some very conservative areas in the north-central part of the state, and ended up being won by McCain with 50.7 to 47.8 Obama. Romney might've broke 57% here. Even Mourdock might've won this seat, so Safe R.
DISTRICT 5: SOUTH BEND-ELKHART: 58.8% Obama in 2008, probably around 53% Obama in 2012. Which is enough to make it Likely D in Indiana.
DISTRICT 6: NORTHEAST INDIANA: 59.3% McCain in 2008, Romney in the mid-60s, Safe R.
DISTRICT 7: FORT WAYNE: Narrow victory for McCain in 2008 (49.9-49.4), so probably mid-50s for Romney, at worst Likely R. Even Mourdock might've won this district, the GOP base is HARD.
DISTRICT 8: MARION-ALLEN COUNTY: McCain won over 60% in 2008, Safe R.
DISTRICT 9: NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA: Despite a lot of Democrats in Kokomo and Logansport that's not enough to even flip their counties. 55.6% McCain, Romney probably got over 60%, and even Mourdock likely won the seat because of the Indianapolis exurbs. Safe R.
DISTRICT 10: ANDERSON-MUNCIE: 52.1% Obama-46.6% McCain in 2008, Romney probably got around 51% and Mourdock got crushed. We'll call it a tossup.
DISTRICT 11: TERRE HAUTE-WEST CENTRAL INDIANA: Another narrow McCain victory (49.6-48.9), meaning Romney got at worst mid-50s. Donnelly probably won it though, so we'll call it Likely R. Someone like Brad Ellsworth could easily win here.
DISTRICT 12: BLOOMINGTON-COLUMBUS: Obviously Obama won this seat, but only 53.7%-45.2% McCain. Like district 10, probably Romney with around 51%. Polarized seat though and it seems that Donnelly probably won only relatively narrowly, so we'll say Lean R.
DISTRICT 13: SOUTHWEST INDIANA: A bunch of rural areas around Evansville, lots of historically Dem but 55.3% McCain, no doubt over 60% Romney, and even Mourdock might've won here. So probably Safe R.
DISTRICT 14: EVANSVILLE: Even McCain won here (51.2-47.8), and Romney was no doubt in the high 50s, and Donnelly-Mourdock appears to be a dead heat. But even this seat wouldn't be wave proof, Brad Ellsworth could win it, even after his 2010 Senate run (and he's from Evansville.) So Likely R.
DISTRICT 15: OHIO RIVER: This seat manages to combine blue collar suburbs of Louisville with uber-partisan R Cincinnati suburbs without making it look like a gerrymander. 53.9% McCain, but the swing was kind of anemic here, Romney probably got around only around 56-57%. Still that's the cusp of Safe R, and Mourdock-Donnelly was close, so Likely R.
DISTRICT 16: RICHMOND-SHELBY-HANCOCK: McCain just shy of 60% (59.9%) and the uber-partisan Indianapolis exurbs make this Safe R.
DISTRICT 17: HAMILTON COUNTY: See above, McCain got 59.6%. Another safe R seat.
DISTRICT 18: MORGAN-JOHNSON: 60.9% McCain, and Romney was nearing 70%. This might be the safest seat in the state despite the moderate sliver of Indianapolis. Safe R.
DISTRICT 19: HENDRICKS-WEST MARION: I'm saying "Marion" instead of Indianapolis because it's not really the real city region. Still that strip is kind of minority heavy, and the seat's under 80% white, just over 81% white VAP, and 53.1% McCain. Probably around 57% Romney, but also voted for Mourdock, so Safe R.
DISTRICT 20: CIRCLE CITY NORTH: This is plurality black and still majority minority in VAP. Obama's best district in the state, likely both times with 76.7%. Safe D.
DISTRICT 21: CIRCLE CITY SOUTH-EAST MARION: The weird shape is to avoid the minority areas running across the center of the city. This district is still almost 20% black, 61.5% Obama in 2008, and likely just under 60% for him in 2012 with the weak swing. Basically the white liberal seat of Indianapolis. Safe D.

So 5 at least Lean D seats, 15 at least Lean R seats, and one tossup. But the Democrats could win up to 10 seats in a wave.

[traininthedistance]

Nebraska in six.

With a zillion counties and only six districts, it's possible to make something Iowa-style that keeps the deviation low and doesn't split any counties, aside from Omaha's Douglas (which is too large for a district).  

The state as a whole:



And closeup on Omaha:



DISTRICT 1: OMAHA CITY.  Pop 304,828.  O 60.1%, D 53.8%.  68W/15B/12H.  The lines are drawn here so as to ensure every precinct is within city limits, and that the rest of Douglas can be within 2.  The only district with a non-negligible percentage of minorities.  As close to a safely Democratic district as you'll get in Nebraska.

DISTRICT 2: OUTER DOUGLAS-FREMONT-SOUTH SIOUX CITY.  Pop 304,011.  O 42.0%, D 36.9%.  Keeping to whole counties means that in addition to the inner Omaha district, the rest of the metro area is going to have be split among two districts that take in rural areas.  This one goes north along the Missouri River, taking in the rest of Douglas and five further counties; very little of the population is actually rural, but most is in Douglas and most of the rest is in Fremont, Blair, and the Sioux City area.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 3: SARPY-SOUTHEAST.  Pop 304,433.  O 40.0%, D 37.6%.  Sarpy and twelve further counties in the southeast corner of the state, wrapping around the Lincoln district.  This one is more rural, but even so roughly half the population is in Sarpy.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 4: LINCOLN AREA.  Pop 305,497.  O 51.3%, D 45.2%.  Lancaster, Saline, and Fillmore counties.  The Lincoln area is the hardest to do in whole counties since Lancaster is pretty close to a full district, and this version gives us the lowest possible deviation (1,107).  Obama won it, but Lean R anyway.

DISTRICT 5: TRI-CITIES-COLUMBUS-NORFOLK.  Pop 303,733. O 31.4%, D 33.2%.  Twenty counties, the main population centers (such as they are) all in the district name (Tri-Cities being Kearny, Grand Island, and Hastings of course).  Safe R.

DISTRICT 6: PRAIRIE.  Pop 303,799.  O 27.0%, D 30.8%.  I'm not going to count how many counties are in this giant expanse of emptiness.  Safe R.

[GMantis]

Oklahoma







This assumes (like with my previous maps) non-partisan redistricting. The Republican legislature would probably split Oklahoma city into three or even four districts

DISTRICT 1: SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA: McCain 69.3%, 47.5% R  average.  One of the three districts that comprise the majority of Oklahoma's area. This district is traditionally Democratic and could probably elect a Boren-type Democrat, so it's only Lean R, despite it being even more Republican than the state average in Presidential elections.

DISTRICT 2: SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA: McCain 67.8%, R 50.9%. Even bigger by area than the 1st, though over a third of the population is in the Lawton metro (Comanche county), the third largest in the state. Though this district also contains some ancestral Democratic areas (like Jefferson county), it's probably Safe R, outside a very good year for the Democrats.

DISTRICT 3: NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA: McCain 62.4%, R 46%. Another mostly rural district, with Muskogee being by far the largest city. It's 23.2% Native American, the highest percentage in the state. The district is also traditionally Democratic and has preserved this status slightly better than the 1st district (Obama's two best counties are here). But it's Lean R at most.

DISTRICT 4: OUTER TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA: McCain 70%, R 54.7%. Except for two counties, the name is literal. Safe R.

DISTRICT 5: TULSA: McCain 58.1%, R 51.8%. Entirely within the city of Tulsa. This is the opposite of the eastern districts - it's traditionally Republican, so despite the low McCain result, it's safe R.

DISTRICT 6: INNER TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA: McCain 66.9%, R 57%. The rest of Tulsa county and parts of Creek county. Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: STILLWATER-OKMULGEE-SHAWNEE: McCain 65.9%, R 49.9% Central Oklahoma would probably also work, considering that it basically fills up the space between the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metropolitan areas (and includes parts of both). A surprisingly strong Democrat average moves it to Lean R, though that probably applies only to very conservative Democrats.

DISTRICT 8: SUBURBAN OKLAHOMA COUNTY: McCain 67.4%, R 58.8%. Includes most of Oklahoma county that's not in the 10th district, including part of the city. Safe R.

DISTRICT 9: CANADIAN COUNTY-GRADY COUNTY-CADDO COUNTY: McCain 71.2%, R 58.8%. Though it stretches as far west as Custer and Washita counties, calling it western OKC suburbs would probably also be a good name, considering where most of the population lives. Safe R.

DISTRICT 10: OKLAHOMA CITY: McCain 42.5%, R 38.9%. Contains, apart from most of Oklahoma city, a few enclosed towns. Only district with a non-white majority (42.2% white, 48.6% VAP). Safe D.

DISTRICT 11: CLEVELAND COUNTY: McCain 64.4%, R 54%. Name is not strictly true, thoughabout 80% of the population does live in Cleveland county, again mostly in the OKC suburbs. Safe R

DISTRICT 12: NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA: McCain 76.8%, R 60.6%. The area is so sparsely settled that it has to reach into the OKC suburbs to make up the numbers. Not only the most Republican district in the state, but probably among the most Republican in the country.

So overall 8 Safe R, 3 Lean R and one Safe D.

[GMantis]

North Dakota



DISTRICT 1: EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA: Obama 50.4%, McCain 47.7%. The easternmost 18 counties, with nearly half of the population living in Cass county (Fargo). Though 2008 was an unusually good result for the Democrats in Presidential elections (Romney won it 51.9% to 45.1%) , the tendency of North Dakota Democrats to over-perform in congressional elections makes it Lean D.

DISTRICT 2: WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA: McCain 59.1%, Obama 38.9%. The other 35 counties, including Bismarck. Safe R.

[7,052,770]

This state turned out a bit more interesting than one would think:



DISTRICT 1: DESOTO-OXFORD: Oddly this isn't that Republican compared to how you'd expect a district based around Memphis suburbia to be, probably thanks to the fact it's now picking up black spillover from Memphis and is 26.2% black VAP. Still 59.7% McCain and Safe R.
DISTRICT 2: NORTH DELTA: 61.5% black VAP...and 63.3% Obama. Ugh. Safe D regardless.
DISTRICT 3: NORTHEAST: The least black district but also the only one that still has a significant number of white Democrats. Only 16.5% black VAP, but Obama got almost 30% here. Regardless while this would have historically been a conservative Democrat seat, it's now close to Safe R, at least until Obama leaves office. That last bit makes it Likely R.
DISTRICT 4: JACKSON-YAZOO CITY: The most descriptive name would be "The black part of Jackson plus some black rural areas" but that won't work. Obviously still safe D, 64.8% black VAP/67.7% Obama.
DISTRICT 5: RANKIN-RIDGELAND: The white part of Jackson plus some white Jackson suburbs, 71.6% McCain, Safe R.
DISTRICT 6: SOUTH DELTA-SOUTH CENTRAL: Majority black, but only plurality black VAP, (49% to 47.8% white) and 54.4% Obama. That means if black turnout ever craters it could flip, for that reason I'll call it Likely D. Most likely would end up with a rather conservative black Democrat ala Sanford Bishop representing it though.
DISTRICT 7: COLUMBUS-CENTRAL: Here's a white district, but still 36.3% black VAP and McCain only won it with 53.7%. That makes it a Lean R seat, wouldn't have been won in 2010 but in the future a conservative white Democrat might manage to win it. Maybe.
DISTRICT 8: EAST STATE LINE: This district is only slightly less black than the 7th (31.1%), but significantly stronger for McCain (64.3%), I guess thanks to where Harry went to school the 7th does have some white Democrats after all. Still this is a Safe R seat.
DISTRICT 9: HATTIESBURG-SOUTH CENTRAL: 72.2% McCain, less than 20% black VAP, not much to see here. Safe R.
DISTRICT 10: GULF COAST: Perhaps unsurprisingly, this district does clearly have a non-negligible number of white Democrats (36.7% Obama in a district that's 21.4% black VAP), but it's still too white and Republican to be winnable. Safe R.

Neat.  I don't really see any obvious flaw.

Gene Taylor would probably be able to win District 10, as the Coast still likes him a lot.  He didn't get thrown out until an extremely Republican year, and even then, it was the Hattiesburg area that did him in, not the Coast.

[traininthedistance]

Tennessee is a really boring and easy state to draw for having 21 districts.  The only interesting parts, really, are a) aligning things such that only one district each crosses the Grand Divisions, and b) maximizing VRA opportunities.  The state is 17% black, which "should" translate to three VRA districts, and three VRA districts is exactly what you can get out of Memphis and some nearby rural areas.  It doesn't even require a whole lot of erosity and county-splitting.  It does require sinking Germantown into a black district, the poor dears.

There's a lot of opportunity for whole-county districts, and they tend to have the highest deviations.

The state as a whole:



And (most of) East TN:



DISTRICT 1: KINGSPORT-BRISTOL-MORRISTOWN.  Pop 301,263.  O 28.8%, D 36.2%.  The Tri-Cities are technically split into two metro areas now, and besides, this configuration preserves whole counties.  Five of 'em, Kingsport-Bristol has most of the population.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 2: JOHNSON CITY-GREENEVILLE.  Pop 303,209.  O 29.6%, D 35.4%.  Five more counties, finishing up the Tri-Cities area and surroundings.  The sheer number of people who live in the Tri-Cities, an area I'd always considered to be the inhospitable rural heart of the Appalachians, continues to amaze me, probably more than any other metro area in the nation.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 3: KNOXVILLE.  Pop. 302,047.  O 42.6%, D 47.7%.  82W/10B.  Mostly the city of Knoxville, then takes in Farragut and a few more suburban precincts entirely within Knox County.  This is about as Democratic as it gets in Eastern TN, but should still be R with most years and most candidates.  Lean R.

DISTRICT 4: KNOXVILLE COUNTRYSIDE-OAK RIDGE.  Pop. 302,442.  O 29.1%, D 38.2%.  The rest of Knox, four more counties in the Knoxville and Morristown metro areas, and one precinct in Sevier (the part north of I-40) for population.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 5: GREAT SMOKY.  Pop 302,013.  O 28.1%, D 35.5%.  The vast majority of Sevier, and three more counties, two of which are Knoxville's southern suburbs., making 3/4/5 another whole-county grouping.  The Great Smoky Mountains Nat. Park is probably the defining feature here, as the Sevierville-Pigeon Forge area is built around Smokies tourism.  Safest R in the state.

Now to Chattanooga and Middle Tennessee:


DISTRICT 6: CLEVELAND-SOUTHEAST.  Pop  301,164.  O 28.2%, D 36.2%.  Six whole counties and the northern portion of Hamilton.  Probably a little more rural than most of the East TN districts.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: CHATTANOOGA.  Pop 301,096.  O 45.5%, D 44.7%.  72W/21B.  Most of Hamilton, all of Chattanooga, Lean R.

DISTRICT 8: CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.  Pop 304,420.  O 32.1%, D 42.0%. Thirteen counties, including the rest of Eastern TN and taking in as much of Middle TN as necessary.  An earlier draft split 8 and 9 north-south rather than east-west, which was more compact, but then I realized that led to two districts straddling the Grand Divisions and rejiggered it this way.  I can't quite tell, but this might be the largest district in the state.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 9: EASTERN HIGHLAND RIM-COOKEVILLE-SHELBYVILLE.  Pop 302,002.  O 36.8%, D 47.4%.  Nine counties in rural Middle TN east of Nashvile, Cookeville is the largest center, such as it is.  Ancestrally Dem but sinking fast; Lean R might be too optimistic but I'm going with it anyway.

DISTRICT 10: NORTHERN NASHVILLE COUNTRYSIDE.  Pop 303,966.  O 33.6%, D 41.4%.  Six whole counties and the northern tip of Davidson for population equality (because it's just a bit too big for two districts); except for tiny Clay in the northeast corner, all of these are in the sprawling Nashville metro.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 11: NASHVILLE EAST.  Pop 302,733.  O 55.1%, D 56.0%.  62W/21B/12H.  The first of two all-Davidson districts, this one has more Hispanics and less blacks, and is therefore merely Lean D.

DISTRICT 12: NASHVILLE WEST.  Pop 304,055.   O 65.4%, D 66.5%.  61W/31B.  And the rest of Davidson.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 13:  MURFREESBORO-LEBANON.  Pop 302,498.  O 35.6%, D 42.0%.  Nashville's western suburbs, this district is Wilson, Cannon, and most of Rutherford, which it shares with 14.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 14: WILLIAMSON-MARSHALL-SMYRNA.  Pop 301,699.  O 33.2%, D 37.1%.  The bulk of the population is in suburban, hyper-Rep Williamson, but it takes in the inner ring of Rutherford as well (because, hey, large suburban counties make county splits necessary), and Marshall for population.  The Marshall bit is a tad unfortunate, but it means we can get 13/14 in whole counties.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 15: CLARKSVILLE-WESTERN HIGHLAND RIM.  Pop 301,390.  O 42.7%, D 49.3%.  81W/11B.  Six counties, mostly in the Clarksville area but some western Nashville exurbs and more rural Middle Tennesee, out to the river.  Another one of those ancestral Dem areas, and with an actual city to anchor it my rating of Lean R is probably actually realistic.

DISTRICT 16: SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  Pop 299,559.  O 34.6%, D 44.2%.  Ten whole counties, like 8 almost exclusively rural.  Columbia and Lawrenceburg are the least-tiny burgs here.  It has to cross over into Western TN for two counties; and has some of that ancestral D area but is still probably Safe R anyway.

And western TN:



DISTRICT 17: NORTHERN WEST TENNESSEE.  Pop 302,303.  O 33.1%, D 44.2%.  86W/11B.  Eleven whole counties, and splits Madison (taking the rural, non-Jackson parts) for VRA purposes.  Like 16, what old yellow dogs are left won't be enough to keep this from Safe R going forward, I think.

DISTRICT 18: MISSISSIPPI PLAIN-NORTH SHELBY.  Pop 304,298.  O 32.2%, D 36.5%.  76W/19B.  Three counties along the river, and then more-or-less the (whiter) part of Shelby not in Memphis proper.  This is not exact- it has to reach through a little string of Memphis that runs to the county line, and it can't quite take in Germantown.  But that's the idea.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 19: MEMPHIS NORTH AND CENTRAL.  Pop 301,300.  O 73.5%, D 68.7%.  38W/54B.  Almost entirely within city limits, first of three black-majority districts and the Safest D in the state.

DISTRICT 20:  MEMPHIS EAST-WHITEHAVEN-GERMANTOWN.  Pop 301,554.   O 64.8%, D 61.4%.  41W/52B.  Almost entirely within the city (except for Germantown), this district is dominated by South Memphis (especially the large neighborhood of Whitehaven), and then reaches East to unpack things a bit and allow for three VRA districts.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 21: SOUTHEAST MEMPHIS-JACKSON-BROWNSVILLE.  Pop 301,094.  O 66.2%, D 63.9%.  38W/55B.  To get our third and final VRA district, the eastern portion of South Memphis is linked with the least white portions of rural West TN- the counties of Hardeman, Fayette, and Heywood, and most of Madision (including all of Jackson).  It's probably the ugliest district on this map… and it's still not that ugly.  Safe D.

Final tally: three black-majority districts (19, 20, 21).

4 Safe D
1 Lean D
0 Tossup
4 Lean R
12 Safe R

[Miles]

Your TN-09 would be good for Bart Gorder. He lives outside the district in Murfeesboro, but he's represented much of TN-09 in the past.

[Gass3268]

I have some critiques on the Wisconsin maps. When I have some time I'll produce my own map. 

[Dave from Michigan]

working on Michigan, how do I post a map of it?

You can post it in the Atlas gallery as a demographic map. Then when you click on the gallery image it will give you the code to put in your post here.

It won't let me post a map to the gallery. something about a wrong file. anyone know how to fix this or post a map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are you posting an image or the map file itself?

[Dave from Michigan]

Are you posting an image or the map file itself?

the file I guess. I'm going to the gallery then demographic maps then choose file then I choose the file that I saved the map as but it says not a valid picture file.

[muon2]

Are you posting an image or the map file itself?

the file I guess. I'm going to the gallery then demographic maps then choose file then I choose the file that I saved the map as but it says not a valid picture file.

If you saved the map, you should go to "MyImages" then click on your map to get the code.

[Dave from Michigan]

Are you posting an image or the map file itself?

the file I guess. I'm going to the gallery then demographic maps then choose file then I choose the file that I saved the map as but it says not a valid picture file.

If you saved the map, you should go to "MyImages" then click on your map to get the code.

it's saved in on my computer, there is nothing in the my images.

[traininthedistance]

Are you posting an image or the map file itself?

the file I guess. I'm going to the gallery then demographic maps then choose file then I choose the file that I saved the map as but it says not a valid picture file.

If you saved the map, you should go to "MyImages" then click on your map to get the code.

it's saved in on my computer, there is nothing in the my images.

I just have a Photobucket account and link everything from there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Which is funny because my computer won't display anything from that Photobucket but my iPod will. Or perhaps it's an Opera vs. Safari issue.

[muon2]

Are you posting an image or the map file itself?

the file I guess. I'm going to the gallery then demographic maps then choose file then I choose the file that I saved the map as but it says not a valid picture file.

If you saved the map, you should go to "MyImages" then click on your map to get the code.

it's saved in on my computer, there is nothing in the my images.

Then you need to go to the Gallery and select Add Picture. You can upload the image from your computer to the Atlas Gallery and add comments as well.

[Dave from Michigan]

Are you posting an image or the map file itself?

the file I guess. I'm going to the gallery then demographic maps then choose file then I choose the file that I saved the map as but it says not a valid picture file.

but it won't let me it says not a valid picture file

If you saved the map, you should go to "MyImages" then click on your map to get the code.

it's saved in on my computer, there is nothing in the my images.

Then you need to go to the Gallery and select Add Picture. You can upload the image from your computer to the Atlas Gallery and add comments as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

What is the file extension? I don't think it will work if it's a .bmp for example.

[Dave from Michigan]

What is the file extension? I don't think it will work if it's a .bmp for example.

drf 

how would I change the file extension