Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Lurker]

SV is basically a middle class party, with a lot of voters with high education and cultural capital. To some extent it is also a very urban party. That also reflects on the young people who support SV. I went to Oslo Katedralskole, which used to be one of SVs best schools. In their heyday there, I think 35 – 40% voted SV, the rest went to Rødt and AP, with a few people (myself included) voted for parties on the right.

Venstre doesn’t really have a base region or core voter group anymore. That’s why I think their results are incredibly random. Their best results were at Valler, which is in Høyres suburban core region. Their next best result was in a small rural area with a few thousand inhabitants, Gloppen. I don’t think there is any pattern here at all.

I’m not sure about FrP. But it seems like their best results are in rural areas.

That is probably true of SV voters in general, yes. But some of their best results doesn't really fit that pattern: these include Vadsø and Inderøy.

It seems like things are really changing at Katta, I was surprised at how low SV polled there. http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg/resultat/skole/10060?aar=2005  As recently as 2005 SV+RV got 45% of the vote, and in '07 RV was even the largest party.

As for FrP's best schools, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them were focused on "yrkesfag".

[Lurker]

There's a new poll by Norfakta showing a clear majority for the Conservatives+ Progress Party, with 27,4% and 21,9% respectively.

These results are massively different from what today's VG poll shows, which gives them a combined 41,5%. Obviously, one of these pollsters will have eggs on their face two days from now.

[Lurker]

Alright some predictions

- Ap will be the largest party.
- H and Krf will under-preform slightly from polls, Frp and V will over-preform slightly.
- MdG will pass 4%, SV will fall below 4%.
- The next government will consist of H+Frp+Krf+Sp. (This is a bold one)  

I understand it's easy to look at the Norwegian election and see it simply as a case of voters being bored, however:

- Arrogance among the governing parties
- A general sense that they are only managing, not governing, or presenting any visions whatsoever
- The peripheries feeling neglected at the same time as the cities feel they are being neglected as well
- As well as fatigue

Is going to be what defeats the government.

So exactly the same reason the Alliance government will loose next year over here in the brother land. Our peoples are more alike than either side would like to admit.  

Seems to be the most common reason for government defeat in Scandinavia - there's no clear correlation between strenght of the economy and performance of the government at elections. Of course, the same applies to the 2005 election where the centre-right government lost and also the Swedish election of 2006.

As for your prediction - why would the right-wing cooperate with Sp instead of Venstre?

[Lurker]

I think there's two realistic coalition governments at this point:

Høyre-Fremskrittspartiet or those two + Venste and Krf. I don't think either of the "centrist" parties would go into a H-Frp government all by themselves.

Also, SV seems very likely to make it - they are currently at 4,054% with 76,8% counted. Audun Lysbakken may just keep his job as SV leader then. But it's still too early to tell for sure.

Miljøpartiet will enter parliament for the first time, with one MP, due to a strong showing in Oslo.

[Lurker]

Nice maps, Sibboleth.

The written language map, while accurate, may give non-Norwegians the wrong impression: practically all of the "neutral" municipalities consist mainly of Bokmål users - as do, I think, even some of the officially Nynorsk municipalities. The nationwide ratio is approximately 90% bokmål- 10% nynorsk.


Here is a list of the best and worst municipalities of the main parties btw: http://www.nrk.no/valg2013/her-har-venstre-og-sp-rent-flertall-1.11232635


Labour Party, Best results: Årdal 63%, Sunndal 52%, Sel 51%. Worst: Eid 10%, Gloppen 10%, Bjerkreim 12%.

Conservatives, best results: Bærum 46%, Asker 43%, Oppegård 39%. Worst: Os(Hedmark)7%, Gloppen 7%, Høylandet 6%.

[Lurker]

I assume the workers/immigrants live mostly in that North-East peninsula-looking part of the city ? Where also the FrP is strongest ?

And the upper middle class people in the SW part of Oslo ?

Yes, primarily. Though there is a big exception to the regular west/east split - the district of Nordstrand which is considered "the West side of Oslo East" (Østkantens vestkant), which is an upper-middle class area dominated by Høyre. (There are other exceptions as well, of course, but that is easily the most glaring one when looking at these maps)

[Lurker]

Yes, primarily. Though there is a big exception to the regular west/east split - the district of Nordstrand which is considered "the West side of Oslo East" (Østkantens vestkant), which is an upper-middle class area dominated by Høyre.

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Let me guess - Nordstrand is demographically a bit older than the western suburbs, that's why pockets pf Krd support could still survive there.
I further assume that the oldest suburb is the one on the western bay shore, which is starting to turn over (traditional Hoyre voters gradually dying away, and being replaced by younger V & MdG voters).

Now, if somebody could point out to us where the University is located (my guess is to the west of the inner city, in that district where S & MdG are strongest), we have almost solved all the mysteries of these wonderful maps...  

Yes, Nordstrand has one of the older demographics of Oslo (though not necessarily the oldest), though whether that is the reason for KrF's relative strength there I don't know.

As for the oldest suburb on the western bay shore - are you referring to this borough, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordre_Aker ?
Most of the University is located in that district/borough as well, in the more urban part of it.