The white vote in large counties.

[mileslunn]

For purposes of this thread, large counties are those with more than 1,000,000 people, and white vote is limited to non-Hispanics. I tried to put together exit poll turnout numbers per state by race in comparison with the Census returns for each state to transfer that turnout model to the counties. I'm also having to make a bold presumption that, except for Hispanics in FL, non-white voter behavior is consistent within a race in various counties in a given state.  Obviously a very inexact and imperfect method. I won't be submitting this for publication in academia. The close ones could very easily be wrong. And in the cases of Bronx, NY and Miami-Dade FL, there were so few white people that this clumsy method didn't really work. So I gave them to Obama because that seemed more in line with the culture of these two counties, which is even less precise. And there were almost equal numbers for each category, which is also interesting.

Obama
1. Los Angeles, CA
2. Cook, IL
3. Miami-Dade, FL
4. Kings, NY
5. Queens, NY
6. King, WA
7. Santa Clara, CA
8. Wayne, MI
9. Broward, FL
10. New York, NY
11. Philadelphia, PA
12. Alameda, CA
13. Middlesex, MA
14. Bronx, NY
15. Cuyahoga, OH
16. Allegheny, PA  - Not totally sure of this, probably but would have been close.  Pretty sure Obama won the white vote in Pittsburgh itself, but if you took the suburbs I suspect Romney came out ahead.
17. Franklin, OH - Romney might have won the white vote here.  Close to 50/50 either way
18. Hennepin, MN
19. Fairfax, VA - Not totally sure either of this one.  In Arlington and Alexandria yes, but not necessarily in Fairfax County.
20. Contra Costa, CA
21. Travis, TX - This is Texas and about 80% of whites went for Romney statewide so not sure about this one either.  In Austin proper, Obama probably won the white vote, but I think Romney won it county wide.

Romney
1. Harris, TX
2. Maricopa, AZ
3. San Diego, CA
4. Orange, CA
5. Dallas, TX
6. Riverside, CA
7. San Bernardino, CA
8. Clark, NV  - Obama might have won this one, but probably right.  I just know statewide it 56-43 and I imagine Romney probably racked up pretty massive margins amongst whites in the rural counties whereas the minority vote was probably pretty even throughout the state.  Yes the rural counties are whiter but still have some minorities. 
9. Tarrant, TX
10. Bexar, TX
11. Suffolk, NY
12. Sacramento, CA
13. Nassau, NY
14. Palm Beach, FL - I would think Obama was more likely to win this one amongst whites than Miami-Dade albeit both would have been close either way.
15. Hillsborough, FL
16. Oakland, MI  - It is a fairly white county, so probably right but would have been close to evenly split either way.
17. Orange, FL
18. Salt Lake, UT

[mileslunn]

And some more large counties, though now <1,000,000 people

Obama
Montgomery, MD
Honolulu, HI
Milwaukee, WI - Quite a racially polarized county, so probably right, but possible Romney won here.
Erie, NY*
Hartford, CT

Romney
St Louis, MO - Its about 80% white and it was 56-43 for Obama so depending on African-American turnout and their numbers an Obama win is possible.  African-Americans in suburbs don't tend to vote as massively Democrat is they do in the city proper otherwise I suspect Romney probably got around 10% of the Black votge here.
Pima, AZ
Westchester, NY* - Has a large Jewish vote who mostly went for Obama, so Romney definitely won the non-Jewish white vote, but I think Obama probably narrowly took the overall white vote here.
Fulton, GA
Mecklenburg, NC
Fresno, CA
Shelby, TN
Wake, NC
Fairfield, CT
DuPage, IL
Pinellas, FL
Marion, IN - Not sure about this as it as about 25% African-American and Romney only got 38% of the vote so unless Obama got virtually all of the African-American vote, Obama probably did narrowly win this. 
Bergen, NJ**

* Erie and Westchester were virtually impossible to determine. Exit polls have Hispanics at 88% Obama in New York State, but I suspect Romney may have done some better with them outside NYC. In any case, the white vote was extremely close in both. I gave one county to each candidate, but both would probably better be labelled as a tie. But that's no fun at all.
** The New Jersey exit polls give no guidance for Hispanics and Asians, who together make up 32% of Bergen's population. I'm going with the very strong Dem NY model for Hispanic results as Bergen is right across the George Washington Bridge. If Hispanics here are not so overwhelmingly Democratic, as Bergen is obviously much less urban than NYC, Bergen may be a white Obama county. In any case, it's a close call.

[mileslunn]

Excellent work Memphis, I did this awhile back in various counties I was curious about.

I used the 2010 census for the demographics of each county, the state exit polls where available, and adjusted for a sizable percent of Hispanics being non-citizens and therefore ineligible  to vote.

Here are some of my estimates, Id give them about a +/-5% margin of error.

Obama's percent of the non-Hispanic white vote.



Multnomah  OR  75%
King County WA 65.5%
Philly   PA 63%
LA   County     62%

Cook   IL  55.5%
Cuyahoga OH 53.7%
Hennepin MN 53%
Wayne ,   MI 46.5
Lake     OH 44.3%    (my home county)



Fulton GA 21.5%
Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%
 
Considering his statewide totals I find those numbers a bit low.  Obama probably got around 20% of the white vote statewide in Georgia, so I am guessing he got around 25-30% in Fulton County.  In Shelby County, he got at least 25% if not more and likewise in Dallas County, Harris County, Montgomery County, and Jackson County, Obama for sure got in double digits and I am almost certain he got over 20% in each of those save Jackson County (actually I think you mean Hinds County) and Montgomery County

[mileslunn]

Any idea on who won the white vote in Montgomery, PA?

Tough to say for sure but based on demographics I would say Obama barely.  Probably around 50-49 for Obama, but close either way.  Same for Delaware County, while Romney would have won the white vote in Bucks County although in all three it was pretty evenly split.  I suspect Romney won the white male vote in all three while Obama won the white female in all three.

[mileslunn]

Allegheny, PA  - Not totally sure of this, probably but would have been close.  Pretty sure Obama won the white vote in Pittsburgh itself, but if you took the suburbs I suspect Romney came out ahead.

Why would you suspect Romney was ahead. Obama won by 14 and a half. County is just 13% blacks. And whites are going to be overrepresented at the polls much than the very few Hispanic and Asians there.

Fairfax, VA - Not totally sure either of this one.  In Arlington and Alexandria yes, but not necessarily in Fairfax County.

I did the math earlier in this thread. Close, but likely a very narrow win for the President.

Travis, TX - This is Texas and about 80% of whites went for Romney statewide so not sure about this one either.  In Austin proper, Obama probably won the white vote, but I think Romney won it county wide.

The rest of Texas has very little bearing on Travis County. Visit. It's very special. Obama won by 24%. Blacks are about 9%, so he's still up 16% (of the actual vote total) without their 90+%. Hispanics are 33% of the population but probably were only about 18-20% of voters. Obama would have had to hit 80-90% with them to lose whites. And the Dems usually don't do that well with Hispanics in Texas.

Milwaukee, WI - Quite a racially polarized county, so probably right, but possible Romney won here.

Milwaukee County is only 27% black. Obama won the county by 36%. There's no way Romney could've won whites.

St Louis, MO - Its about 80% white and it was 56-43 for Obama so depending on African-American turnout and their numbers an Obama win is possible.  African-Americans in suburbs don't tend to vote as massively Democrat is they do in the city proper otherwise I suspect Romney probably got around 10% of the Black votge here.

Conversely, St Louis County is 23% black and Obama won by just 14%. Blacks are pretty monolithically Democratic everywhere. It's just that there are a few more whites living in middle class black areas than in urban ghettos. A solid Romney win.

Westchester, NY* - Has a large Jewish vote who mostly went for Obama, so Romney definitely won the non-Jewish white vote, but I think Obama probably narrowly took the overall white vote here.

Why do you think Obama won the white vote overall in Westchester? Obama won by 25% in a county that is 16% black and 22% hispanic (in a state where Obama won >80% of the Hispanic vote.) That's cutting it very close, and if not for poor Hispanic turnout, would signal a healthy Romney victory.

Marion, IN - Not sure about this as it as about 25% African-American and Romney only got 38% of the vote so unless Obama got virtually all of the African-American vote, Obama probably did narrowly win this.  

Obama won by 22% in a county that is 27% black and 10% Hispanic. Comfortably Romney white voters.

Agree on Allegheny county but probably close.  I am guessing Romney got 48-49% of the white vote there.  As for Travis County, I realize Austin is a quite liberal city thus Obama would have won the white there, but the suburbs tend to be fairly conservative although not as conservative as the state as a whole so while you might be right, I do know in Texas there aren't a whole lot of white Democrats.  As for Milwaukee County, that makes sense.  For St. Louis County Romney got 43% of popular vote so if African-Americans are 23%, then yeah he probably won them, but not by a lot.  In Jefferson County which is almost all white it was 55-43 for Romney and I am pretty sure the white vote in St. Louis County for Romney would be less than in Jefferson County which is considerably more rural and distant suburbs.  I would guess Romney around 52% here.  As for Marion County, It was 60-38 for Obama, and I seem to recall it is about 25% Black while hispanics I don't think are 10%.  Asides from Chicago, the Hispanic community is pretty small in the Midwest and most a recent arrivals thus low voter turnout too.  If you take 38/75 which is probably what it worked out to, I would be a bare Romney win amongst whites.

Westchester County - Romney only got 36% while Hispanics unlikely were 22% of voters.  Assuming the non-whites went about 10% for Romney and up about 30% of the counties population, it would be pretty much a tie.  The demographics of this county and likewise the overall results pretty closely match the state as a whole so I suspect Obama's support amongst whites would probably be close to what he got statewide.  He would have done better amongst whites in New York City but by the same token worse in rural Upstate New York which is overwhelmingly white and although a small part of the overall population, it is a sizeable portion.  Romney may have won it, but it would have been pretty close to a 50-50 split amongst whites here.  Westchester County also has a large Jewish community and they are white and tend to vote quite heavily Democrat, so amongst non-Jewish whites, then for sure Romney won.