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  Talk Elections
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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  The white vote in large counties.
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Author Topic: The white vote in large counties.  (Read 4026 times)
memphis
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« on: January 21, 2013, 12:24:19 am »
« edited: January 21, 2013, 06:24:47 am by memphis »

For purposes of this thread, large counties are those with more than 1,000,000 people, and white vote is limited to non-Hispanics. I tried to put together exit poll turnout numbers per state by race in comparison with the Census returns for each state to transfer that turnout model to the counties. I'm also having to make a bold presumption that, except for Hispanics in FL, non-white voter behavior is consistent within a race in various counties in a given state.  Obviously a very inexact and imperfect method. I won't be submitting this for publication in academia. Smiley The close ones could very easily be wrong. And in the cases of Bronx, NY and Miami-Dade FL, there were so few white people that this clumsy method didn't really work. So I gave them to Obama because that seemed more in line with the culture of these two counties, which is even less precise. And there were almost equal numbers for each category, which is also interesting.

Obama
1. Los Angeles, CA
2. Cook, IL
3. Miami-Dade, FL
4. Kings, NY
5. Queens, NY
6. King, WA
7. Santa Clara, CA
8. Wayne, MI
9. Broward, FL
10. New York, NY
11. Philadelphia, PA
12. Alameda, CA
13. Middlesex, MA
14. Bronx, NY
15. Cuyahoga, OH
16. Allegheny, PA
17. Franklin, OH
18. Hennepin, MN
19. Fairfax, VA
20. Contra Costa, CA
21. Travis, TX

Romney
1. Harris, TX
2. Maricopa, AZ
3. San Diego, CA
4. Orange, CA
5. Dallas, TX
6. Riverside, CA
7. San Bernardino, CA
8. Clark, NV
9. Tarrant, TX
10. Bexar, TX
11. Suffolk, NY
12. Sacramento, CA
13. Nassau, NY
14. Palm Beach, FL
15. Hillsborough, FL
16. Oakland, MI
17. Orange, FL
18. Salt Lake, UT
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2013, 12:37:05 am »

I think it's safe to say that the white vote in all of these counties was more Democratic that the less populous counties surrounding them.
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memphis
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« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2013, 12:45:50 am »

I think it's safe to say that the white vote in all of these counties was more Democratic that the less populous counties surrounding them.
Not always true. Suburban whites can frequently be more Republican than those in the rural areas.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2013, 01:35:12 am »

Just curious, how does your math break down Fairfax?
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memphis
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« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2013, 06:23:35 am »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 06:37:26 am by memphis »

Just curious, how does your math break down Fairfax?
That was one where the white vote is fairly close. And I must have made a computation error here because the math works out to a small Obama lead. Fixed on the original post. Thanks.
County overall population:
White 54.1%
Black 9.9%
Hispanic 15.8%
Asian 18.0%
Other 4%
My estimates for Fairfax voter turnout, as a percentage of all votes cast, are
White 63% (51-49 Obama)
Black 11% (93-6 Obama)
Hispanic 11% (65-33 Obama)
Asian 11% (66-32 Obama)
Other 4% (60-40 Obama)
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memphis
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« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2013, 08:12:32 am »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 11:21:02 am by memphis »

And some more large counties, though now <1,000,000 people

Obama
Montgomery, MD
Honolulu, HI
Milwaukee, WI
Erie, NY*
Hartford, CT

Romney
St Louis, MO
Pima, AZ
Westchester, NY*
Fulton, GA
Mecklenburg, NC
Fresno, CA
Shelby, TN
Wake, NC
Fairfield, CT
DuPage, IL
Pinellas, FL
Marion, IN
Bergen, NJ**

* Erie and Westchester were virtually impossible to determine. Exit polls have Hispanics at 88% Obama in New York State, but I suspect Romney may have done some better with them outside NYC. In any case, the white vote was extremely close in both. I gave one county to each candidate, but both would probably better be labelled as a tie. But that's no fun at all.
** The New Jersey exit polls give no guidance for Hispanics and Asians, who together make up 32% of Bergen's population. I'm going with the very strong Dem NY model for Hispanic results as Bergen is right across the George Washington Bridge. If Hispanics here are not so overwhelmingly Democratic, as Bergen is obviously much less urban than NYC, Bergen may be a white Obama county. In any case, it's a close call.
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Ty440
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« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2013, 06:09:10 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 06:16:31 pm by ¡Cuatro años más! »

Excellent work Memphis, I did this awhile back in various counties I was curious about.

I used the 2010 census for the demographics of each county, the state exit polls where available, and adjusted for a sizable percent of Hispanics being non-citizens and therefore ineligible  to vote.

Here are some of my estimates, Id give them about a +/-5% margin of error.

Obama's percent of the non-Hispanic white vote.



Multnomah  OR  75%
King County WA 65.5%
Philly   PA 63%
LA   County     62%

Cook   IL  55.5%
Cuyahoga OH 53.7%
Hennepin MN 53%
Wayne ,   MI 46.5
Lake     OH 44.3%    (my home county)



Fulton GA 21.5%
Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%

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Benj
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« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2013, 06:26:19 pm »

Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%

You have to be making some bad assumptions to get these numbers. There are precincts in most of these counties that are all but 100% white, and they don't vote 95% Republican. 80% Republican, sure, but not 95%. In Harris and Shelby (and maybe in Dallas?), there are even a few heavily white precincts that voted for Obama. 20-25% seems like the lowest possible white-for-Obama percent in urban counties (then down to more like 10% in some rural counties in the South).
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2013, 06:52:00 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 06:55:42 pm by Sbane »

What assumptions were you making about Hispanic turnout, Goldenboy? Also Asian turnout?
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Ty440
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« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2013, 07:06:05 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 07:19:59 pm by ¡Cuatro años más! »

Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%

You have to be making some bad assumptions to get these numbers. There are precincts in most of these counties that are all but 100% white, and they don't vote 95% Republican. 80% Republican, sure, but not 95%. In Harris and Shelby (and maybe in Dallas?), there are even a few heavily white precincts that voted for Obama. 20-25% seems like the lowest possible white-for-Obama percent in urban counties (then down to more like 10% in some rural counties in the South).

Yea my math may off in some of these places , I was looking at the non-Hispanic white  population in a given county and comparing it to Romney's   vote total

Example:
Shelby County, Tennessee: White persons not Hispanic,  38.6%   

Romney's percent in Shelby 36.55%

Clearly he got basically  a very tiny amount  votes from blacks in Shelby and very  few from other minorities.

Virtually all his votes came from that 39% that were  white-non-Hispanic.

Now Texas and other heavily Hispanic places are tough because it's hard to figure the turnout because of non-citizenship and Texas Hispanics are more conservative than others.


Another easy one:

 Montgomery County AL 

Non-Hispanic white         38.3%
Willard Mitt Romney        37.5%
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Ty440
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« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2013, 07:10:10 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 07:13:32 pm by ¡Cuatro años más! »

What assumptions were you making about Hispanic turnout, Goldenboy? Also Asian turnout?


I looked at the state exit polls for a given county in that state, and for the states that had none I used the national exit poll.

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Sbane
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« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2013, 07:13:32 pm »

No, I mean what % of the electorate did you think was Hispanic in Harris County, for example?
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Ty440
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« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2013, 07:24:46 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 07:43:52 pm by ¡Cuatro años más! »

No, I mean what % of the electorate did you think was Hispanic in Harris County, for example?

Census  says  they are 41.4% of the Population

I had them around 32%. of the electorate.

Does anyone else want to take a crack at Harris County TX?

2010 Census results.

Black                                        19.3%
Asian/mixed race/all others      6.6%
Hispanic or Latino                    41.4%
White Non-Hispanic                 32.7%





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freepcrusher
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« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2013, 12:00:21 am »
« Edited: January 22, 2013, 12:25:36 am by freepcrusher »

 Here is my approximation about what the white vote was in these counties in 2008. Obviously it's not from 2012 but it should be useful in determining the 2012 numbers.

New York, NY 81.1% Obama
Alameda, CA 76.1% Obama
King, WA 71.2% Obama
Los Angeles, CA 67.6% Obama
Santa Clara, CA 67.4% Obama
Philadelphia, PA 62.7% Obama
Middlesex, MA 61.7% Obama
Contra Costa, CA 61.2% Obama
Cook, IL 60.3% Obama
Hennepin, MN 60% Obama
Dade, FL 59.5% Obama
Bronx, NY 57.4% Obama
Wayne, MI 56% Obama
Palm Beach, FL 55.9% Obama
Cuyahoga, OH 55.3% Obama
Travis, TX 55.3% Obama
Broward, FL 53.6% Obama
Fairfax, VA 53.3% Obama
Franklin, OH 51.7% Obama
Allegheny, PA 51.4% Obama
Oakland, MI 50.7% Obama
Sacramento, CA 50.1% Obama
Kings, NY 50.1% Obama
San Diego, CA 50.4% McCain
Suffolk, NY 51.7% McCain
Salt Lake, UT 52.1% McCain
Nassau, NY 53.4% McCain
Orange, FL 55.3% McCain
Riverside, CA 56.1% McCain
Clark, NV 56.6% McCain
Orange, CA 56.6% McCain
Queens, NY 57.3% McCain
Hillsborough, FL 60.1% McCain
Maricopa, AZ 60.9% McCain
San Bernardino, CA 61.3% McCain
Dallas, TX 61.4% McCain
Bexar, TX 68.8% McCain
Tarrant, TX 70.3% McCain
Harris, TX 72.2% McCain
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memphis
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2013, 01:55:49 pm »

As for my own home county, here are my estimates for each race. If anything, there may have been a few more whites in the voting booth than this. They're older and older people tend to show up at the polls. Non-whites have more children, who, of course, are not allowed to vote at all.

Blacks (52% of votes) 95-5 Obama
Whites (43% of votes) 77-23 Romney
Hispanics (2% of votes) 70-30 Obama
Asians (1% of votes) 65-35 Obama
Others (2% of votes) 60-40 Obama
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2013, 10:34:34 pm »

No, I mean what % of the electorate did you think was Hispanic in Harris County, for example?

Census  says  they are 41.4% of the Population

I had them around 32%. of the electorate.

Does anyone else want to take a crack at Harris County TX?

2010 Census results.

Black                                        19.3%
Asian/mixed race/all others      6.6%
Hispanic or Latino                    41.4%
White Non-Hispanic                 32.7%

I would ballpark Harris County whites as 65% Romney, 35% Obama. A lot of the county's population is suburban, even the parts technically within Houston city limits. Also the epicenter of the oil & gas industry.

Dallas County, 60% Romney, 40% Obama. A lot less conservative than it was 20 years ago. The minority population is growing and the Republican vote is seeping out into the collar counties.

Bexar County, 70% Romney, 30% Obama. If you think this sounds high, keep in mind that (1) this is an ancestrally Republican area as far as white voters (as are the counties immediately north of it). (2) There is a very strong military presence of both active and retired members due to Fort Sam Houston and Lackland Air Force Base. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2013, 10:07:09 pm »

For purposes of this thread, large counties are those with more than 1,000,000 people, and white vote is limited to non-Hispanics. I tried to put together exit poll turnout numbers per state by race in comparison with the Census returns for each state to transfer that turnout model to the counties. I'm also having to make a bold presumption that, except for Hispanics in FL, non-white voter behavior is consistent within a race in various counties in a given state.  Obviously a very inexact and imperfect method. I won't be submitting this for publication in academia. Smiley The close ones could very easily be wrong. And in the cases of Bronx, NY and Miami-Dade FL, there were so few white people that this clumsy method didn't really work. So I gave them to Obama because that seemed more in line with the culture of these two counties, which is even less precise. And there were almost equal numbers for each category, which is also interesting.

Obama
1. Los Angeles, CA
2. Cook, IL
3. Miami-Dade, FL
4. Kings, NY
5. Queens, NY
6. King, WA
7. Santa Clara, CA
8. Wayne, MI
9. Broward, FL
10. New York, NY
11. Philadelphia, PA
12. Alameda, CA
13. Middlesex, MA
14. Bronx, NY
15. Cuyahoga, OH
16. Allegheny, PA  - Not totally sure of this, probably but would have been close.  Pretty sure Obama won the white vote in Pittsburgh itself, but if you took the suburbs I suspect Romney came out ahead.
17. Franklin, OH - Romney might have won the white vote here.  Close to 50/50 either way
18. Hennepin, MN
19. Fairfax, VA - Not totally sure either of this one.  In Arlington and Alexandria yes, but not necessarily in Fairfax County.
20. Contra Costa, CA
21. Travis, TX - This is Texas and about 80% of whites went for Romney statewide so not sure about this one either.  In Austin proper, Obama probably won the white vote, but I think Romney won it county wide.

Romney
1. Harris, TX
2. Maricopa, AZ
3. San Diego, CA
4. Orange, CA
5. Dallas, TX
6. Riverside, CA
7. San Bernardino, CA
8. Clark, NV  - Obama might have won this one, but probably right.  I just know statewide it 56-43 and I imagine Romney probably racked up pretty massive margins amongst whites in the rural counties whereas the minority vote was probably pretty even throughout the state.  Yes the rural counties are whiter but still have some minorities. 
9. Tarrant, TX
10. Bexar, TX
11. Suffolk, NY
12. Sacramento, CA
13. Nassau, NY
14. Palm Beach, FL - I would think Obama was more likely to win this one amongst whites than Miami-Dade albeit both would have been close either way.
15. Hillsborough, FL
16. Oakland, MI  - It is a fairly white county, so probably right but would have been close to evenly split either way.
17. Orange, FL
18. Salt Lake, UT
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mileslunn
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2013, 10:10:49 pm »

And some more large counties, though now <1,000,000 people

Obama
Montgomery, MD
Honolulu, HI
Milwaukee, WI - Quite a racially polarized county, so probably right, but possible Romney won here.
Erie, NY*
Hartford, CT

Romney
St Louis, MO - Its about 80% white and it was 56-43 for Obama so depending on African-American turnout and their numbers an Obama win is possible.  African-Americans in suburbs don't tend to vote as massively Democrat is they do in the city proper otherwise I suspect Romney probably got around 10% of the Black votge here.
Pima, AZ
Westchester, NY* - Has a large Jewish vote who mostly went for Obama, so Romney definitely won the non-Jewish white vote, but I think Obama probably narrowly took the overall white vote here.
Fulton, GA
Mecklenburg, NC
Fresno, CA
Shelby, TN
Wake, NC
Fairfield, CT
DuPage, IL
Pinellas, FL
Marion, IN - Not sure about this as it as about 25% African-American and Romney only got 38% of the vote so unless Obama got virtually all of the African-American vote, Obama probably did narrowly win this. 
Bergen, NJ**

* Erie and Westchester were virtually impossible to determine. Exit polls have Hispanics at 88% Obama in New York State, but I suspect Romney may have done some better with them outside NYC. In any case, the white vote was extremely close in both. I gave one county to each candidate, but both would probably better be labelled as a tie. But that's no fun at all.
** The New Jersey exit polls give no guidance for Hispanics and Asians, who together make up 32% of Bergen's population. I'm going with the very strong Dem NY model for Hispanic results as Bergen is right across the George Washington Bridge. If Hispanics here are not so overwhelmingly Democratic, as Bergen is obviously much less urban than NYC, Bergen may be a white Obama county. In any case, it's a close call.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2013, 10:13:12 pm »

Excellent work Memphis, I did this awhile back in various counties I was curious about.

I used the 2010 census for the demographics of each county, the state exit polls where available, and adjusted for a sizable percent of Hispanics being non-citizens and therefore ineligible  to vote.

Here are some of my estimates, Id give them about a +/-5% margin of error.

Obama's percent of the non-Hispanic white vote.



Multnomah  OR  75%
King County WA 65.5%
Philly   PA 63%
LA   County     62%

Cook   IL  55.5%
Cuyahoga OH 53.7%
Hennepin MN 53%
Wayne ,   MI 46.5
Lake     OH 44.3%    (my home county)



Fulton GA 21.5%
Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%
 
Considering his statewide totals I find those numbers a bit low.  Obama probably got around 20% of the white vote statewide in Georgia, so I am guessing he got around 25-30% in Fulton County.  In Shelby County, he got at least 25% if not more and likewise in Dallas County, Harris County, Montgomery County, and Jackson County, Obama for sure got in double digits and I am almost certain he got over 20% in each of those save Jackson County (actually I think you mean Hinds County) and Montgomery County

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« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2013, 02:20:36 pm »

Any idea on who won the white vote in Montgomery, PA?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2013, 05:09:44 pm »

Any idea on who won the white vote in Montgomery, PA?

Tough to say for sure but based on demographics I would say Obama barely.  Probably around 50-49 for Obama, but close either way.  Same for Delaware County, while Romney would have won the white vote in Bucks County although in all three it was pretty evenly split.  I suspect Romney won the white male vote in all three while Obama won the white female in all three.
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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: January 29, 2013, 03:47:06 pm »

Franklin County would be very close. The white vote there is about 72% in 2012 or so I would guess, looking at the census data.
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memphis
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« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2013, 04:49:10 pm »

Allegheny, PA  - Not totally sure of this, probably but would have been close.  Pretty sure Obama won the white vote in Pittsburgh itself, but if you took the suburbs I suspect Romney came out ahead.
Why would you suspect Romney was ahead. Obama won by 14 and a half. County is just 13% blacks. And whites are going to be overrepresented at the polls much than the very few Hispanic and Asians there.
Fairfax, VA - Not totally sure either of this one.  In Arlington and Alexandria yes, but not necessarily in Fairfax County.
I did the math earlier in this thread. Close, but likely a very narrow win for the President.
Travis, TX - This is Texas and about 80% of whites went for Romney statewide so not sure about this one either.  In Austin proper, Obama probably won the white vote, but I think Romney won it county wide.
The rest of Texas has very little bearing on Travis County. Visit. It's very special. Obama won by 24%. Blacks are about 9%, so he's still up 16% (of the actual vote total) without their 90+%. Hispanics are 33% of the population but probably were only about 18-20% of voters. Obama would have had to hit 80-90% with them to lose whites. And the Dems usually don't do that well with Hispanics in Texas.
Milwaukee, WI - Quite a racially polarized county, so probably right, but possible Romney won here.
Milwaukee County is only 27% black. Obama won the county by 36%. There's no way Romney could've won whites.
St Louis, MO - Its about 80% white and it was 56-43 for Obama so depending on African-American turnout and their numbers an Obama win is possible.  African-Americans in suburbs don't tend to vote as massively Democrat is they do in the city proper otherwise I suspect Romney probably got around 10% of the Black votge here.
Conversely, St Louis County is 23% black and Obama won by just 14%. Blacks are pretty monolithically Democratic everywhere. It's just that there are a few more whites living in middle class black areas than in urban ghettos. A solid Romney win.
Westchester, NY* - Has a large Jewish vote who mostly went for Obama, so Romney definitely won the non-Jewish white vote, but I think Obama probably narrowly took the overall white vote here.
Why do you think Obama won the white vote overall in Westchester? Obama won by 25% in a county that is 16% black and 22% hispanic (in a state where Obama won >80% of the Hispanic vote.) That's cutting it very close, and if not for poor Hispanic turnout, would signal a healthy Romney victory.
Marion, IN - Not sure about this as it as about 25% African-American and Romney only got 38% of the vote so unless Obama got virtually all of the African-American vote, Obama probably did narrowly win this.  
Obama won by 22% in a county that is 27% black and 10% Hispanic. Comfortably Romney white voters.


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mileslunn
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« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2013, 05:25:36 pm »

Allegheny, PA  - Not totally sure of this, probably but would have been close.  Pretty sure Obama won the white vote in Pittsburgh itself, but if you took the suburbs I suspect Romney came out ahead.
Why would you suspect Romney was ahead. Obama won by 14 and a half. County is just 13% blacks. And whites are going to be overrepresented at the polls much than the very few Hispanic and Asians there.
Fairfax, VA - Not totally sure either of this one.  In Arlington and Alexandria yes, but not necessarily in Fairfax County.
I did the math earlier in this thread. Close, but likely a very narrow win for the President.
Travis, TX - This is Texas and about 80% of whites went for Romney statewide so not sure about this one either.  In Austin proper, Obama probably won the white vote, but I think Romney won it county wide.
The rest of Texas has very little bearing on Travis County. Visit. It's very special. Obama won by 24%. Blacks are about 9%, so he's still up 16% (of the actual vote total) without their 90+%. Hispanics are 33% of the population but probably were only about 18-20% of voters. Obama would have had to hit 80-90% with them to lose whites. And the Dems usually don't do that well with Hispanics in Texas.
Milwaukee, WI - Quite a racially polarized county, so probably right, but possible Romney won here.
Milwaukee County is only 27% black. Obama won the county by 36%. There's no way Romney could've won whites.
St Louis, MO - Its about 80% white and it was 56-43 for Obama so depending on African-American turnout and their numbers an Obama win is possible.  African-Americans in suburbs don't tend to vote as massively Democrat is they do in the city proper otherwise I suspect Romney probably got around 10% of the Black votge here.
Conversely, St Louis County is 23% black and Obama won by just 14%. Blacks are pretty monolithically Democratic everywhere. It's just that there are a few more whites living in middle class black areas than in urban ghettos. A solid Romney win.
Westchester, NY* - Has a large Jewish vote who mostly went for Obama, so Romney definitely won the non-Jewish white vote, but I think Obama probably narrowly took the overall white vote here.
Why do you think Obama won the white vote overall in Westchester? Obama won by 25% in a county that is 16% black and 22% hispanic (in a state where Obama won >80% of the Hispanic vote.) That's cutting it very close, and if not for poor Hispanic turnout, would signal a healthy Romney victory.
Marion, IN - Not sure about this as it as about 25% African-American and Romney only got 38% of the vote so unless Obama got virtually all of the African-American vote, Obama probably did narrowly win this.  
Obama won by 22% in a county that is 27% black and 10% Hispanic. Comfortably Romney white voters.




Agree on Allegheny county but probably close.  I am guessing Romney got 48-49% of the white vote there.  As for Travis County, I realize Austin is a quite liberal city thus Obama would have won the white there, but the suburbs tend to be fairly conservative although not as conservative as the state as a whole so while you might be right, I do know in Texas there aren't a whole lot of white Democrats.  As for Milwaukee County, that makes sense.  For St. Louis County Romney got 43% of popular vote so if African-Americans are 23%, then yeah he probably won them, but not by a lot.  In Jefferson County which is almost all white it was 55-43 for Romney and I am pretty sure the white vote in St. Louis County for Romney would be less than in Jefferson County which is considerably more rural and distant suburbs.  I would guess Romney around 52% here.  As for Marion County, It was 60-38 for Obama, and I seem to recall it is about 25% Black while hispanics I don't think are 10%.  Asides from Chicago, the Hispanic community is pretty small in the Midwest and most a recent arrivals thus low voter turnout too.  If you take 38/75 which is probably what it worked out to, I would be a bare Romney win amongst whites.

Westchester County - Romney only got 36% while Hispanics unlikely were 22% of voters.  Assuming the non-whites went about 10% for Romney and up about 30% of the counties population, it would be pretty much a tie.  The demographics of this county and likewise the overall results pretty closely match the state as a whole so I suspect Obama's support amongst whites would probably be close to what he got statewide.  He would have done better amongst whites in New York City but by the same token worse in rural Upstate New York which is overwhelmingly white and although a small part of the overall population, it is a sizeable portion.  Romney may have won it, but it would have been pretty close to a 50-50 split amongst whites here.  Westchester County also has a large Jewish community and they are white and tend to vote quite heavily Democrat, so amongst non-Jewish whites, then for sure Romney won.
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