The white vote in large counties.

[Ty440]

Excellent work Memphis, I did this awhile back in various counties I was curious about.

I used the 2010 census for the demographics of each county, the state exit polls where available, and adjusted for a sizable percent of Hispanics being non-citizens and therefore ineligible  to vote.

Here are some of my estimates, Id give them about a +/-5% margin of error.

Obama's percent of the non-Hispanic white vote.



Multnomah  OR  75%
King County WA 65.5%
Philly   PA 63%
LA   County     62%

Cook   IL  55.5%
Cuyahoga OH 53.7%
Hennepin MN 53%
Wayne ,   MI 46.5
Lake     OH 44.3%    (my home county)



Fulton GA 21.5%
Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%

[Ty440]

Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%

You have to be making some bad assumptions to get these numbers. There are precincts in most of these counties that are all but 100% white, and they don't vote 95% Republican. 80% Republican, sure, but not 95%. In Harris and Shelby (and maybe in Dallas?), there are even a few heavily white precincts that voted for Obama. 20-25% seems like the lowest possible white-for-Obama percent in urban counties (then down to more like 10% in some rural counties in the South).

Yea my math may off in some of these places , I was looking at the non-Hispanic white  population in a given county and comparing it to Romney's   vote total

Example:
Shelby County, Tennessee: White persons not Hispanic,  38.6%   

Romney's percent in Shelby 36.55%

Clearly he got basically  a very tiny amount  votes from blacks in Shelby and very  few from other minorities.

Virtually all his votes came from that 39% that were  white-non-Hispanic.

Now Texas and other heavily Hispanic places are tough because it's hard to figure the turnout because of non-citizenship and Texas Hispanics are more conservative than others.


Another easy one:

 Montgomery County AL 

Non-Hispanic white         38.3%
Willard Mitt Romney        37.5%

[Ty440]

What assumptions were you making about Hispanic turnout, Goldenboy? Also Asian turnout?

I looked at the state exit polls for a given county in that state, and for the states that had none I used the national exit poll.

[Ty440]

No, I mean what % of the electorate did you think was Hispanic in Harris County, for example?

Census  says  they are 41.4% of the Population

I had them around 32%. of the electorate.

Does anyone else want to take a crack at Harris County TX?

2010 Census results.

Black                                        19.3%
Asian/mixed race/all others      6.6%
Hispanic or Latino                    41.4%
White Non-Hispanic                 32.7%