The white vote in large counties.

[memphis]

For purposes of this thread, large counties are those with more than 1,000,000 people, and white vote is limited to non-Hispanics. I tried to put together exit poll turnout numbers per state by race in comparison with the Census returns for each state to transfer that turnout model to the counties. I'm also having to make a bold presumption that, except for Hispanics in FL, non-white voter behavior is consistent within a race in various counties in a given state.  Obviously a very inexact and imperfect method. I won't be submitting this for publication in academia. The close ones could very easily be wrong. And in the cases of Bronx, NY and Miami-Dade FL, there were so few white people that this clumsy method didn't really work. So I gave them to Obama because that seemed more in line with the culture of these two counties, which is even less precise. And there were almost equal numbers for each category, which is also interesting.

Obama
1. Los Angeles, CA
2. Cook, IL
3. Miami-Dade, FL
4. Kings, NY
5. Queens, NY
6. King, WA
7. Santa Clara, CA
8. Wayne, MI
9. Broward, FL
10. New York, NY
11. Philadelphia, PA
12. Alameda, CA
13. Middlesex, MA
14. Bronx, NY
15. Cuyahoga, OH
16. Allegheny, PA
17. Franklin, OH
18. Hennepin, MN
19. Fairfax, VA
20. Contra Costa, CA
21. Travis, TX

Romney
1. Harris, TX
2. Maricopa, AZ
3. San Diego, CA
4. Orange, CA
5. Dallas, TX
6. Riverside, CA
7. San Bernardino, CA
8. Clark, NV
9. Tarrant, TX
10. Bexar, TX
11. Suffolk, NY
12. Sacramento, CA
13. Nassau, NY
14. Palm Beach, FL
15. Hillsborough, FL
16. Oakland, MI
17. Orange, FL
18. Salt Lake, UT

[memphis]

I think it's safe to say that the white vote in all of these counties was more Democratic that the less populous counties surrounding them.

Not always true. Suburban whites can frequently be more Republican than those in the rural areas.

[memphis]

Just curious, how does your math break down Fairfax?

That was one where the white vote is fairly close. And I must have made a computation error here because the math works out to a small Obama lead. Fixed on the original post. Thanks.
County overall population:
White 54.1%
Black 9.9%
Hispanic 15.8%
Asian 18.0%
Other 4%
My estimates for Fairfax voter turnout, as a percentage of all votes cast, are
White 63% (51-49 Obama)
Black 11% (93-6 Obama)
Hispanic 11% (65-33 Obama)
Asian 11% (66-32 Obama)
Other 4% (60-40 Obama)

[memphis]

And some more large counties, though now <1,000,000 people

Obama
Montgomery, MD
Honolulu, HI
Milwaukee, WI
Erie, NY*
Hartford, CT

Romney
St Louis, MO
Pima, AZ
Westchester, NY*
Fulton, GA
Mecklenburg, NC
Fresno, CA
Shelby, TN
Wake, NC
Fairfield, CT
DuPage, IL
Pinellas, FL
Marion, IN
Bergen, NJ**

* Erie and Westchester were virtually impossible to determine. Exit polls have Hispanics at 88% Obama in New York State, but I suspect Romney may have done some better with them outside NYC. In any case, the white vote was extremely close in both. I gave one county to each candidate, but both would probably better be labelled as a tie. But that's no fun at all.
** The New Jersey exit polls give no guidance for Hispanics and Asians, who together make up 32% of Bergen's population. I'm going with the very strong Dem NY model for Hispanic results as Bergen is right across the George Washington Bridge. If Hispanics here are not so overwhelmingly Democratic, as Bergen is obviously much less urban than NYC, Bergen may be a white Obama county. In any case, it's a close call.

[memphis]

As for my own home county, here are my estimates for each race. If anything, there may have been a few more whites in the voting booth than this. They're older and older people tend to show up at the polls. Non-whites have more children, who, of course, are not allowed to vote at all.

Blacks (52% of votes) 95-5 Obama
Whites (43% of votes) 77-23 Romney
Hispanics (2% of votes) 70-30 Obama
Asians (1% of votes) 65-35 Obama
Others (2% of votes) 60-40 Obama

[memphis]

Allegheny, PA  - Not totally sure of this, probably but would have been close.  Pretty sure Obama won the white vote in Pittsburgh itself, but if you took the suburbs I suspect Romney came out ahead.

Why would you suspect Romney was ahead. Obama won by 14 and a half. County is just 13% blacks. And whites are going to be overrepresented at the polls much than the very few Hispanic and Asians there.

Fairfax, VA - Not totally sure either of this one.  In Arlington and Alexandria yes, but not necessarily in Fairfax County.

I did the math earlier in this thread. Close, but likely a very narrow win for the President.

Travis, TX - This is Texas and about 80% of whites went for Romney statewide so not sure about this one either.  In Austin proper, Obama probably won the white vote, but I think Romney won it county wide.

The rest of Texas has very little bearing on Travis County. Visit. It's very special. Obama won by 24%. Blacks are about 9%, so he's still up 16% (of the actual vote total) without their 90+%. Hispanics are 33% of the population but probably were only about 18-20% of voters. Obama would have had to hit 80-90% with them to lose whites. And the Dems usually don't do that well with Hispanics in Texas.

Milwaukee, WI - Quite a racially polarized county, so probably right, but possible Romney won here.

Milwaukee County is only 27% black. Obama won the county by 36%. There's no way Romney could've won whites.

St Louis, MO - Its about 80% white and it was 56-43 for Obama so depending on African-American turnout and their numbers an Obama win is possible.  African-Americans in suburbs don't tend to vote as massively Democrat is they do in the city proper otherwise I suspect Romney probably got around 10% of the Black votge here.

Conversely, St Louis County is 23% black and Obama won by just 14%. Blacks are pretty monolithically Democratic everywhere. It's just that there are a few more whites living in middle class black areas than in urban ghettos. A solid Romney win.

Westchester, NY* - Has a large Jewish vote who mostly went for Obama, so Romney definitely won the non-Jewish white vote, but I think Obama probably narrowly took the overall white vote here.

Why do you think Obama won the white vote overall in Westchester? Obama won by 25% in a county that is 16% black and 22% hispanic (in a state where Obama won >80% of the Hispanic vote.) That's cutting it very close, and if not for poor Hispanic turnout, would signal a healthy Romney victory.

Marion, IN - Not sure about this as it as about 25% African-American and Romney only got 38% of the vote so unless Obama got virtually all of the African-American vote, Obama probably did narrowly win this.  

Obama won by 22% in a county that is 27% black and 10% Hispanic. Comfortably Romney white voters.