UK local by-elections 2013

[minionofmidas]

Nice result in Thetford.

For UKIP almost more so than for Labour, given circumstances.

[minionofmidas]

More of an explanation now than a preview, and the results have exposed some shocking lack of research, but here goes.

So who is this Steve Rush fellow you  failed to research?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice result in Thetford.

For UKIP almost more so than for Labour, given circumstances.

The two parties are actually coalition partners (of sorts) on Norfolk CC!

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Skelton-in-Cleveland; Merton; Swindon; Lowestoft.  This week's Holy Word at
http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/08/by-election-preview-8-august-2013.html

[countydurhamboy]

If the Tories lose swindon by-election today the council will go NOC



Edit: But they held on.  Labour Won Waveney, sitting UKIP CC 3rd

[ObserverIE]

Waveney, Oulton

Lab 41.2 (+12.4)
Con 30.1 (+3.6)
UKIP 24.6 (+24.6)
Green 2.1 (-5.2)
Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Con 49.6 (+7.0)
Lab 32.0 (+1.2)
UKIP 15.4 (+4.2)
Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lab 72.2 (+21.3)
Con 18.9 (-0.9)
UKIP 6.7 (+6.7)
Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lab 46.1 (-5.1)
UKIP 30.0 (+30.0)
Con 10.9 (-23.9)
Ind 10.5
Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Skelton is actually quite a good result for Labour, given the circumstances.

[YL]

Waveney, Oulton

Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

Hmm...

[You kip if you want to...]

Waveney, Oulton

Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

Hmm...

Win or lose, 2015 will be a victory for all those who've wanted to see the back of the Liberals (even pre-2010).

[YL]

Waveney, Oulton

Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

Hmm...

Win or lose, 2015 will be a victory for all those who've wanted to see the back of the Liberals (even pre-2010).

Well, possibly not.  I expect they'll have very bad results (as above) in a lot of places but may do OK where they have MPs and/or very good organisation.  I still think holding on to around 30 MPs is plausible.  Certainly I don't expect to have a non-Lib Dem MP in the near future.

[doktorb]

Waveney, Oulton

Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

Hmm...

Win or lose, 2015 will be a victory for all those who've wanted to see the back of the Liberals (even pre-2010).

No it won't. Reports of our demise have been exaggerated since I were a boy and will continue to be so.

[MaxQue]

Waveney, Oulton

Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

Hmm...

Win or lose, 2015 will be a victory for all those who've wanted to see the back of the Liberals (even pre-2010).

No it won't. Reports of our demise have been exaggerated since I were a boy and will continue to be so.

Oh, sure you'll win more than 150 seats in 2015 and replace Labour as the main opposition to Conservatives due to your excellent record in government.

[minionofmidas]

You see, these just as periodical reports also have been exaggerated since I was a boy. (The other type have been around since Clement Attlee was a boy, actually.)

The LDs will survive. This won't be immediately clear after the next elections, but it will be clear by the time they're back in opposition to a Tory government the next time.

[Leftbehind]

I think the Liberals will survive, sadly, but I don't think there was anything inevitable about it. Labour's unwillingness to capitalise/venture into space they've left vacant, and general embrace of New Labour triangulation all but seals their continued existence (beyond perverse to think they'll return as a disaffected leftist home). 

Amazing to see Greens in Merton go from over a third of the vote to not standing in a space of decade.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Long trip down memory lane here:

http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/08/by-election-preview-15-august-2013.html

[Leftbehind]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Just one of many reasons to despise the spread of the mayoral system.

[ObserverIE]

Torridge, Shebbear and Langtree

Con 47.2 (-16.0)
UKIP 42.7 (+42.7)
Green 8.1 (+8.1)
Lib DemInd 2.0

(Lib Dems took 36.8 last time)

Hartlepool, Manor House

Lab 56.4 (+8.2)
UKIP 19.9 (+3.4)
Hartlepool First 17.1 (-0.3)
Con 6.5 (+1.7)

Walsall, Aldridge Central and South

Con 49.7 (-0.2)
UKIP 24.4 (+8.3)
Lab 18.6 (-4.3)
Lib Dem 4.5 (-6.6)
Eng Dem 2.9 (+2.9)

West Berkshire, Hungerford

Con 48.4 (-13.2)
Lib Dem 44.8 (+6.4)
Lab 5.1 (+5.1)
UPP 1.7 (+1.7)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good result from the town of the monkey hangers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Long trip down memory lane here

The bit on said town is fantastic, btw.

[ObserverIE]

Lib Dem vote in Devon (even if operating undercover) was atrocious. Some of the county council results in places like North Devon and the Cornish seats this May looked ominous.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, LibDem success in the West Country has as much to do with them being the obvious choice for a basically 'conservative' protest vote as it does with antediluvian Liberal traditions...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean, if they were in Australia, these places would vote for the Nationals.

[Khunanup]

Lib Dem vote in Devon (even if operating undercover) was atrocious. Some of the county council results in places like North Devon and the Cornish seats this May looked ominous.

He didn't campaign. After the cock up with the election nomination papers that meant he was down as no description it was felt it wasn't worth the bother. After a couple of other examples in May where this happened for candidates of other parties (ie, they failed to get their party on the ballot paper) I can't exactly blame him.

Not that I'm not saying our results in that part of Devon in particular in May weren't pretty terrible.

[Khunanup]

I mean, if they were in Australia, these places would vote for the Nationals.

Hmm, not quite so sure about that. Devon West and Torridge perhaps as there's no settlements of any real size there and places like St Ives, North Cornwall and Somerton and Frome. But Yeovil, Torbay, Taunton etc, or even the 'two town' Cornwall seats? Surely too 'urban' for an antipodean type National Party to win.  I would think some of the rural seats in Tory Wiltshire and Dorset would be better suited than these.

[minionofmidas]

Long trip down memory lane here:

http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/08/by-election-preview-15-august-2013.html

Happy Eater, eh?

5:20 to 7:15