NC-PPP: Kay Hagan (D) leads GOPers by 6-10 points

[Tender Branson]

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay Hagan's job performance?

Approve .................34%
Disapprove.............36%

...

Kay Hagan...................................................... 47%
Phil Berger ...................................................... 38%

Kay Hagan...................................................... 46%
Renee Ellmers ................................................ 40%

Kay Hagan...................................................... 47%
Virginia Foxx ................................................... 40%

Kay Hagan...................................................... 45%
George Holding............................................... 37%

Kay Hagan...................................................... 45%
Patrick McHenry ............................................. 39%

Kay Hagan...................................................... 46%
Robert Pittenger.............................................. 38%

Kay Hagan...................................................... 47%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 37%

PPP surveyed 608 North Carolina voters and 449 usual Republican primary voters from
January 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.0% overall and +/-
4.6% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_011513.pdf

[Miles]

Excellent news!

[HappyWarrior]

She is far better positioned than I would have suspected.

[RogueBeaver]

Ugh. Meh bench saves a red state Dem.

[Keystone Phil]

Bad bench but she's far from the lock you'd think she is based on what you read around here.

[DrScholl]

North Carolina isn't that heavily Republican, so it's not really surprising she's in a good position.

[Maxwell]

It can't be too good. She only leads VIRGINIA FOXX by 7.

[wan]

Wow!!!Great news

[GMantis]

Is having such bad favorability really good news? Most of these opponents have low name recognition, so they could likely improve on their numbers in an election campaign (with the exception of Foxx, whose numbers would probably worsen).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Ugh.  But it's early and it's from PPP, so that should tell you a lot about how much stock you should take (or at least that I take) in this poll.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Ugh.  But it's early and it's from PPP, so that should tell you a lot about how much stock you should take (or at least that I take) in this poll.

Stay hackish.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Ugh.  But it's early and it's from PPP, so that should tell you a lot about how much stock you should take (or at least that I take) in this poll.

Exactly, Hagan might be doing even better. PPP has a Republican-Leaning House Effect. How many times do we have to tell you guys that?

[GMantis]

Ugh.  But it's early and it's from PPP, so that should tell you a lot about how much stock you should take (or at least that I take) in this poll.

Did you live in a cave during the last election campaign?

[Miles]

Is having such bad favorability really good news? Most of these opponents have low name recognition, so they could likely improve on their numbers in an election campaign (with the exception of Foxx, whose numbers would probably worsen).

Burr has/had equally anonymous numbers and he was fine.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Ugh.  But it's early and it's from PPP, so that should tell you a lot about how much stock you should take (or at least that I take) in this poll.

Did you live in a cave during the last election campaign?

To give credit where it is due, Oldiesfreak, if I recall correctly, did not hack up the 2012 board like most of his buddies did.  Perhaps he didn't bother looking at the polls at all and is just parroting outdated talking points.

[GMantis]

Ugh.  But it's early and it's from PPP, so that should tell you a lot about how much stock you should take (or at least that I take) in this poll.

Did you live in a cave during the last election campaign?

To give credit where it is due, Oldiesfreak, if I recall correctly, did not hack up the 2012 board like most of his buddies did.  Perhaps he didn't bother looking at the polls at all and is just parroting outdated talking points.

At least the hacks didn't continue mocking the polls after the election. Though that may have been because almost all of them vanished completely...

[Niemeyerite]

Ugh.  But it's early and it's from PPP, so that should tell you a lot about how much stock you should take (or at least that I take) in this poll.

Did you live in a cave during the last election campaign?

That.

PPP was very accurate in 2010
PPP was very accurate in 2012
PPP is from NC
PPP is very accurate in NC

Wanna see more?

[Holmes]

North Carolinans aren't too familiar with their senators, are they? Funny. Hagan is pretty much a perfect fit for the state. And she's great.

[Vosem]

Really, maxing out at 47% in a Romney state against opponents who haven't been elected statewide isn't such good news.

Also, while PPP is generally a good pollster, I would take their early NC polling with a grain of salt. Take a look at this page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-2012_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012) where you can see that during 2011 they consistently showed Obama ahead or tied with Romney in NC while also showing Romney generally doing better than his actual performance in other states (CO, NV, PA). Was North Carolina the only state to move towards Romney while the rest of the country moved towards Obama? No. So I would take this with a grain of salt, though the basic thesis (Hagan leads unknown opponents in the single digits without breaking 50) sounds pretty accurate.

What I find interesting as well is that the best-performing Republican in this poll is Ellmers. I know she was elected more through luck than anything else in 2010, but I wonder if she would be able to actually conduct a respectable campaign against Hagan.

[Miles]

Ellmes couldn't even run ahead of Romney in her district against a Some Dude opponent.

[Maxwell]

North Carolinans aren't too familiar with their senators, are they? Funny. Hagan is pretty much a perfect fit for the state. And she's great.

Well they seem to pick the most anonymous senators (anyone remember a single thing Richard Burr says the second after he says it?).

[Vosem]

Ellmes couldn't even run ahead of Romney in her district against a Some Dude opponent.

Oy...