PPP: Hillary and Rubio still ahead nationally

[Tender Branson]

GOPers:

Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?

Marco Rubio ................................................... 21%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 16%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 15%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 14%
Chris Christie .................................................. 14%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 5%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 3%
Susana Martinez............................................. 2%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 2%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 7%

DEMs

Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 57%
Joe Biden........................................................ 16%
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 4%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 4%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 3%
Deval Patrick................................................... 2%
Mark Warner ................................................... 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand ............................................ 1%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 10%

If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for President in 2016, who would you most like to see as the Democratic nominee?

Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 19%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 16%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 7%
Deval Patrick................................................... 6%
Kirsten Gillibrand ............................................ 5%
Mark Warner ................................................... 4%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 2%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 40%

PPP surveyed 1,100 American voters, including 400 usual Democratic primary voters
and 563 Republican primary voters, from January 3rd to 6th. The margin of error for the
overall sample is +/-3.0%, +/-4.9% for the Democratic portion, and +/-4.1% for the GOP
portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_011013.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder what it would look like without Huck and Jeb. Anyhoo, my biggest fear is still of a conservative demolition derby.

[Mr. Morden]

They've improved a little on deciding who to include in these polls (removing Rice from the list, and adding Jindal, for example), but they really should be polling Santorum rather than Huckabee.  The former is far more likely to run.

In any case, favorability / unfavorability among members of their own party:

Clinton 79 / 15% for +64%
Biden 73 / 22% for +51%
Warren 47 / 13% for +34%
Cuomo 36 / 20% for +16%
Patrick 17 / 10% for +7%
Gillibrand 16 / 14% for +2%
O'Malley 12 / 11% for +1%
Schweitzer 6 / 12% for -6%

Ryan 76 / 11% for +65%
Huckabee 70 / 15% for +55%
Rubio 60 / 11% for +49%
Bush 59 / 15% for +44%
Jindal 47 / 11% for +36%
Rand Paul 55 / 20% for +35%
Christie 44 / 29% for +15%
Perry 40 / 26% for +14%
Martinez 23 / 15% for +8%

On the GOP side, who leads among…
moderates: Christie
somewhat conservative: Rubio
very conservative: Rubio
men: Rubio
women: Rubio
18-45 year olds: Ryan
46-65 year olds: Rubio
over 65 years old: Rubio

As I've noted before, Rubio's already leading the field in the primary matchup, though he still lags a bit behind most of the other contenders in name recognition.  87% of Republicans have an opinion of Ryan, and 85% have an opinion of Huckabee, for example, while only 71% have an opinion of Rubio.  That suggests that Rubio still has more room for growth.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

The numbers would be more interesting to me a year from now if you take out Hillary, Biden, and Huckabee (who I seriously doubt will run again after passing on '12). The scramble for that huge amount of leftover votes in a Hillary/Biden-less field would be exciting to follow as the lesser-known candidates try and amp up their name recognition.

I'm surprised O'Malley is polling so low with how much of a try-hard he's been in getting his face out there. He's probably the most likely to run of any Democrat and has been a staple on TV shows and in swing states.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm surprised O'Malley is polling so low with how much of a try-hard he's been in getting his face out there. He's probably the most likely to run of any Democrat and has been a staple on TV shows and in swing states.

Normal voters don't watch Meet the Press every week.  All of the non-Biden, non-Clinton candidates on the Democratic side will remain largely unknown to the average voter until well into 2015.

[Maxwell]

I think Rubio will completely implode once he gets on the campaign trail.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I'm surprised O'Malley is polling so low with how much of a try-hard he's been in getting his face out there. He's probably the most likely to run of any Democrat and has been a staple on TV shows and in swing states.

Normal voters don't watch Meet the Press every week.  All of the non-Biden, non-Clinton candidates on the Democratic side will remain largely unknown to the average voter until well into 2015.

Well, he also had the best speaking slot of any Democrat contender at the 2012 DNC. I just thought he'd be ahead of Cuomo at this juncture.