The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I don't think the vote of no confidence will go through for several reasons:

The Left Party has pushed it to far to back out know.

Looks like you're right: https://www.adressa.no/nyheter/utenriks/2021/06/17/V%C3%A4nsterpartiet-Vi-ombestemmer-oss-ikke-24142494.ece

The Left Party confirmed an hour ago that it will support a vote of no-confidence on Monday.

This breaks the decades-long policy of the Left to never vote against an SAP government, only to abstain or vote in favor. Does anyone know how long that policy dates back? I would assume late-1940s or 1950s?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Liberals have just announced that they will not vote out the government. However, the sum of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Sweden Democrats and Left Party is 182, seven more votes than necessary to pass a vote of no confidence.

So it is still going to happen

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Poll of voters about the situation:

41% believe the vote of no confidence is a bad idea
40% believe it to be a good idea
19% no opinion/don't know

However:

only 29% think an extra election would be a good idea
54% think bad idea
17% no opinion

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Actually, why is this the case? Why is Västerbotten's Centre Party so hostile to the SAP? In most other northern regions, don't they usually work together? I know Västerbotten has a peculiar history but I don't understand the region too well.

Can you tell us more about that?

Just realized that I completely ignored you on this, apologies, but three things make it stand out in my mind from studying Swedish elections:

1. in modern times, Västerbotten is unusual in the north for how it tends to give more support to the Left Party compared to the other northern counties, at the expense of the Social Democrats. The difference isn't massive but it does cause Västerbotten to stand out on party shading maps. Maybe it has something to do with the economic structure of the county, or maybe an unusually strong and popular local Left Party.

2. On some election maps, there is a small remote valley district in the western part of Västerbotten that has, throughout history, given the largest share of its votes to the Liberals (1970), Centre Party (1973 - 1982) and the Christian Democrats (1991). Everything around it supports the Social Democrats as the largest party consistently. Absolutely no idea why this remote district does this.

3. Before the Great Depression, Västerbotten was, believe it or not, an anti-socialist liberal stronghold, which is mind-blowing to think about, but this time I do have an explanation: Västerbotten and Norrbotten were very rural and dominated by small-holdings who viewed the Social Democrats as benefitting industrial workers to the expense of everyone else, and who were also scared by the more radical socialist elements within the SAP (who later would split off into the Communists) and thus felt that they would be the losers should the SAP get their way. This ended in part because of the Great Depression destroying most of their livelihoods, and in part because of the Social Democrats striking a bargain with the Agrarians in 1932, committing themselves to economically aiding smallholders and other farmers in exchange for Agrarian support for social reforms. The Conservatives discredited themselves during WWII, and while they recovered their pre-war strength by the 1980s, they never came back in the North because, by this point, they were the ones who represented the cities in the festering urban-rural culture war.

However, I'm not sure why Västerbotten took so long to fall to the SAP. In the March and September 1914 elections, neighboring Norbotten and Ångermannland (now part of Västernorrland) voted for the SAP, while in 1917 Norbotten and southern parts of Ångermanland voted for the Social Democratic Left Party (who later became the Communists), while Västerbotten remained a liberal stronghold throughout this period. In 1920 and 1921, the far north of Sweden swung back towards the conservatives and liberals, but in 1924 Ångermannland began voting SAP again. In 1932, all of northern Sweden except Västerbotten fell to the SAP, which fell to the SAP in 1936, and it wasn't until 1940/1944 that Västerbotten became an SAP stronghold, although flashes of weakness would show up as early as 1948.

But again, I'm not exactly sure WHY Västerbotten continues to give below-average numbers for the SAP compared to the rest of northern Sweden, especially that one little valley district on the Norwegian border that loves smaller parties.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Anyone interested in some morning political drama can watch here: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/9O57Qd/liverapportering-om-regeringskrisen

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The motiom has passed, the government falls. Press conference by Löfvén in 35 minutes

Vote was 181 in favor, 109 against, 51 abstentions

[Astatine]

So - What now:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven has not made a decision about resigning or calling new elections

He has one week to choose

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Liberals have just announced that they will not vote out the government. However, the sum of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Sweden Democrats and Left Party is 182, seven more votes than necessary to pass a vote of no confidence.

Liberals now say that if there is a presidential round or new elections, they will work for a dark blue government.

Such an alliance would have 174 seats to a Red-Green+Centre's 175, bringing it down to the wire

[Former President tack50]

May I say that the system where Sweden always has 4 year fixed elections is quite a bit dumb? Why should a new election be called in 2022 no matter what? Especially for national elections. The only advantage I can see is maybe stability but I'd rather take the snap elections, sometimes they are the best option.

Has any party ever proposed removing that rule?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

May I say that the system where Sweden always has 4 year fixed elections is quite a bit dumb? Why should a new election be called in 2022 no matter what? Especially for national elections. The only advantage I can see is maybe stability but I'd rather take the snap elections, sometimes they are the best option.

Has any party ever proposed removing that rule?

I can't answer that question unfortunately, but my understanding is having these fixed terms is a way of making snap elections unattractive outside of extreme cases. Since most governments in Sweden have been minority governments (esp. SocDem governments), the chances of a snap election are always high if there are no majority coalitions, so i guess the combination of minority governments that are rarely interrupted by snap elections fits into the whole consensus culture thing alomg with being beneficial to the SAP where they used to be the sole big party and could pick off smaller parties for support on a case-by-case basis. However that system is probably less beneficial as the SAP no longer consistently gets above 40% and also the emergence of bloc politics.

Then again, i could be talking out of my ass here.

Also, i think it's about aligning local/regional elections with national elections consistently to make sure turnout it high

[Ethelberth]

Västernbotten has been traditionally more evangelical area, meaning high support for Liberal party.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Looks like the Centre Party is backing down on the housing reforms.

However, the Liberals are now switching sides and want to work for a conservative government, and Centre still refuses to negotiate with the Left, so this crisis still isn't over yet

The SAP-Greens now need to get a new agreement that pleases both Centre and the Left simultaneously in order to get a new government approved. Of course, Centre still refuses to negotiate with the Left directly, so we again have the possibility that the SAP will play the role of middle man negotiator, which doesn't have much chance of success seeing as such time-consuming tactics will definitely last more than the one week available

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Rumors abound that the senior leadership of the SAP is leaning towards calling an extra election on Monday as their best bet.

While the Red-Greens+Centre in theory have a 175 to 174 majority, there is one rogue Left MP and one rogue Centre MP who are being cryptic about their support for a return of Löfven. There is also one Liberal MP who seems to more or less have quit her job so the situation is very risky for everyone involved if Sweden were to go to Presidential rounds.

SAP leadership supposedly thinks they can campaign on managing the COVID crisis well, the booming economy, successfully pumping the breaks on centre-right proposals while also achieving some of their own goals, etc. while reminding voters that SD could get into power while the Liberals could get the boot. Also, they could put the blame of a snap election during a crisis on the other parties.

Of course, these are unconfirmed rumors. Anecdotally, following up on social media with my Solna SAP friends, they seem to be in a fighting mood about an extra election.

[ingemann]

Rumors abound that the senior leadership of the SAP is leaning towards calling an extra election on Monday as their best bet.

While the Red-Greens+Centre in theory have a 175 to 174 majority, there is one rogue Left MP and one rogue Centre MP who are being cryptic about their support for a return of Löfven. There is also one Liberal MP who seems to more or less have quit her job so the situation is very risky for everyone involved if Sweden were to go to Presidential rounds.

SAP leadership supposedly thinks they can campaign on managing the COVID crisis well, the booming economy, successfully pumping the breaks on centre-right proposals while also achieving some of their own goals, etc. while reminding voters that SD could get into power while the Liberals could get the boot. Also, they could put the blame of a snap election during a crisis on the other parties.

Of course, these are unconfirmed rumors. Anecdotally, following up on social media with my Solna SAP friends, they seem to be in a fighting mood about an extra election.

..That sounds like the 2001 Danish elections, which Nyrup called based on the fact that he thought that 9/11 would push the Danes to choose the safe hand on the helm rather than risk a inexperienced PM supported by DPP.

Also do the Swedes agree that Löfven have handled COVID great? I must admit I mostly read Swedish debate forums and they don’t seems to agree on the Swedish handling of it, but I know that Danish internet debate aren’t representative of the Danish public debate or opinion. As for the Swedes I know, they’re not happy either but that’s purely anecdotal.

[The Lord Marbury]

Rumors abound that the senior leadership of the SAP is leaning towards calling an extra election on Monday as their best bet.

While the Red-Greens+Centre in theory have a 175 to 174 majority, there is one rogue Left MP and one rogue Centre MP who are being cryptic about their support for a return of Löfven. There is also one Liberal MP who seems to more or less have quit her job so the situation is very risky for everyone involved if Sweden were to go to Presidential rounds.

SAP leadership supposedly thinks they can campaign on managing the COVID crisis well, the booming economy, successfully pumping the breaks on centre-right proposals while also achieving some of their own goals, etc. while reminding voters that SD could get into power while the Liberals could get the boot. Also, they could put the blame of a snap election during a crisis on the other parties.

Of course, these are unconfirmed rumors. Anecdotally, following up on social media with my Solna SAP friends, they seem to be in a fighting mood about an extra election.

..That sounds like the 2001 Danish elections, which Nyrup called based on the fact that he thought that 9/11 would push the Danes to choose the safe hand on the helm rather than risk a inexperienced PM supported by DPP.

Also do the Swedes agree that Löfven have handled COVID great? I must admit I mostly read Swedish debate forums and they don’t seems to agree on the Swedish handling of it, but I know that Danish internet debate aren’t representative of the Danish public debate or opinion. As for the Swedes I know, they’re not happy either but that’s purely anecdotal.

I wouldn't say that people generally think that the COVID strategy has gone great, but at the same time those who think it's gone terribly are definitely a minority. Most people probably think that there are things which could've been done better but it hasn't been a complete disaster either. But being the incumbent in the time of crisis is probably still beneficial for Löfven, being seen as a safe pair of hands and all that.

Also, the debate forums are definitely not representative of Swedes in general. There's definitely an overrepresentation of SD-supporters, general rightwingers and people who hate the government there. Not sure why, but my guess is that one explanation could be that there are more men than women who are active on forums and since men tend to be more conservative those places will lean to the right. There's probably a bit of a positive feedback loop there too, because speaking for myself as a Swedish leftist, I'm not particularly interested in joining and being active on a forum with a membership that's overwhelmingly rightwing.

[Lord Halifax]

But again, I'm not exactly sure WHY Västerbotten continues to give below-average numbers for the SAP compared to the rest of northern Sweden, especially that one little valley district on the Norwegian border that loves smaller parties.

It's Storuman, where Evangelical free churches (some pretty hardcore) used to dominate (and they still have a lot of congregations for such a small place) and a significant Sami population (Sami is official minority language in the municipality). It has lost a lot of population since then and the SAP is doing okay now (32%+ in 2018), but being rural without any industry and evangelical would generally make it a bad SAP area back in the day. Evangelicals used to vote Liberal in Sweden and it fits the pattern with it being a KD stronghold in 1991 (where nearly all the other KD first places are in the Småland bible belt).

Swedish skiing legends Ingemar Stenmark and Anja Pärson are from that area btw.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Put it in your daily planners for tomorrow; Löfven has until midnight tomorrow to announce whether he will take Sweden to an extra election or Presidential rounds.

Given the dead silence from the SAP after their national leadership met with the regional leaders on Saturday afternoon and also total media blackout from the party (not even Aftonbladet can squeeze any juicy leaks out), I am guessing tomorrow he will announce a snap election.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven calls for presidential rounds. The speaker now has four chances to form a new government before elections are mandatory



(Honestly kind of sad, i wanted a new election. 175 - 174 is not a stable majority)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Löfven calls for presidential rounds. The speaker now has four chances to form a new government before elections are mandatory

Called it!

What I think will happen is, the motion pass but Löfven doesn't call an early election and thus the Speaker is assigned to lead formation talks for a new government and we have a repeat of what happened in 2018.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Speaker of the Riksdag will announce who will be the first to be tasked with forming a new government at 16.15 this afternoon

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Speaker of the Riksdag will announce who will be the first to be tasked with forming a new government at 16.15 this afternoon

Ulf Kristersson of the Moderates is given first go. There is no time limit but the time frame is "several weeks".

In a major setback for him, the Centre MP Helena Lindahl, who went rogue in 2019 and voted against Löfven and could have held the balance of power in a 175 - 174 situation, has announced that she will vote the party line in the current situation. This comes despite saying that Stefan Löfven is "not her Prime Minister" and made otherwise very harsh comments about him as PM. So as long as the other Left Party rebel also votes the party line and no one else goes rogue, then the Red-Greens and Centre have 175 together against a conservative coalition of 174.

There is also the risk that someone from a party does not show, which would make the difference in such a vote. Right now there is one Liberal MP who has been a no-show and two SAP MPs who have a sketchy attendance record over the past few months. During the vote of no confidence in Stefan Löfven last week, a total of 8 MPs were absent, six of which were from the SAP, one from Centre, and one from the Greens.

One member of the SAP has been excluded for inappropriate behavior and another suspended pending a traffic investigation (on the flip side, there is thought that Ebba Busch could be prosecuted for libel at any moment, but im not sure how that would affect her as leader of KD).

Of course, because Sweden has negative parliamentarianism, this means that if even ONE member from the Red-Greens+Centre is absent, a motion for a Kristersson government would have a tie of 174 to 174, which would mean the motion would pass, as it would not have a majority of 175 against.

But then again, that government would also be very fragile, because it could fall if everyone on the other side just showed up to a vote against.

The Speaker of the Riksdag, Andreas Norlen (M), aims to hold a vote on a new head of government next week, however there is no guarantee of this as it is just a general aim. He also hopes to avoid another drawn-out process like the four months this took last time.

Strap in.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Kristersson reportedly aims to form either an M+KD or M+KD+L government with external support from SD.

SD is very unlikely to join the government, but they appear to be happy to provide external support so long as their agenda is achieved. SD is also likely to accept quite a lot of watering down of their agenda as part of their strategy of becoming mainstream and appearing as a reliable and trustworthy partner.

M has made overtures to Centre but Centre has turned them down so long as M keeps courting SD.


In the event a government is formed, Kristersson has said that his priorities would be improvements in elder care, crime, and deporting illegal immigrants. Admittedly he has not said much, but i assume COVID will also continue to be a major theme.

He aims to report to the President of the Riksdag on Friday with a possible vote on Monday if both feel there is not a majority against.

He may request an extension if he feels progress is being made.

[crals]

Without Centre in the mix, what is Kristersson hoping for? SAP no-shows? Or are they still courting C?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Without Centre in the mix, what is Kristersson hoping for? SAP no-shows? Or are they still courting C?

Honestly no idea.

I guess maybe a defector from C? This defector would of course likely end their political career, and i would think risk getting expelled outright from the party. Alternatively this person could defect outright from the party entirely, unsure of how this works in the Riksdag.

Alternatively if there are SAP absentees, they could form a government, avoid controversial issues for one year and just focus on COVID and dare the opposition to restart the government crisis by voting the government down, which could damage the opposition, and hope to get a mandate in 2022.

But yeah, otherwise not sure what the game plan is here